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      "body": "Congratulations @dogevader! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@dogevader/birthday2.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 2 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@dogevader) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=dogevader)_</sub>\n\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "parent_permlink": "btc",
      "author": "dogevader",
      "permlink": "btc-update-5-16-18-the-eye-of-consolidation",
      "title": "BTC Update 5–16–18: The Eye of Consolidation",
      "body": "**Disclaimer- Due to technical difficulties, I was not able to post this update on Steemit a few days ago, the original post can be found on [Medium](https://medium.com/@dogevader/btc-update-5-16-18-the-eye-of-consolidation-d01473bc6ed9) . I am posting the update here as well for continuity, nonetheless the analysis remains unchanged. \n\n\n**Price: ~$8,300**\n\nIn the previous [update](https://steemit.com/btc/@dogevader/btc-update-4-28-18-cloud-odyssey-begins) BTC was entering the Daily Cloud for the first time since it broke out of the Cloud in February; cautious optimism was recommended as we approached the $10K level and technical indicators pointed to support in the low $8K’s. Since then BTC had trouble getting past $10K and has been consolidating in the low $8K’s for the past several days. Let’s investigate to see where BTC is heading to next. \n\n**12HR Cloud:**\n\nThe 12HR cloud has been a reliable indicator for BTC for the past several months. In last [update](https://steemit.com/btc/@dogevader/btc-update-4-28-18-cloud-odyssey-begins) BTC was beginning to break past the cloud. Since then, BTC managed to break out of the cloud but ran out of steam, completed an edge to edge to bottom side of the cloud, Kijun rejections, and has re-broken cloud support. \n\n![5-16-18.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmSf1Qr1rmaBJVnB9qDkkQi6SY9hgoh7FpgTyPXfgKqK63/5-16-18.png)\n\nThis said, it’s not all gloom & doom just yet. Observe that the Chikou, past price indicator, has been consolidating inside the 12HR cloud & has yet to break Kijun support. This means that while current price is having difficultly at these levels, past price has created enough support at these levels to avoid automatic free fall. \n \nThe future cloud projection has also painted bullish through the end of May, with a flat Senkou B span around current price levels. The flat Senkou B span is significant for a few reasons. To begin, let’s review what the Senkou B span is; Senkou B span represents the equilibrium between the highest high & lowest low of price during the long span and is typically a strong area of support or resistance.\n\n>The formula is as follows:\nSenkou B= (highest high & lowest low both over 120 periods)/ 2\n\nNow let’s bring it all together and see what this means for BTC. If the Chikou, remains above the Kijun long enough, current price will be creating a bridge to the Senkou B span and begin to create strong support in the low $8K’s.  However, if the Chikou falters, the next alignment for support is the bottom of the 12HR cloud ~ $7.5K, then if BTC manages to find a bounce there, the Senkou B span would become hard resistance in the low $8K’s. Finally, also observe if BTC does manage to find support in this low $8K region, that the Chikou is blocked by candles & cloud resistance ~$8.8K+. In brief, with the Chikou inside the 12HR cloud & current price broken the cloud, BTC is confirmed in full consolidation mode & will be relying on cloud support & resistance levels in the coming weeks. \n\n**Daily Pitchfork & Chikou:**\n\nAs I’m sure many have already seen on the Daily cloud, BTC is at the bottom of the cloud, rather than focus on the Cloud itself, I’d like to focus on the Chikou in relation to pitchfork fibs. For those unfamiliar, the Mega Pitchfork Fib is a personalized indicator and has been a reliable source of **Macro** support & resistance levels since the inception of the 2015 Bull Run. If you take the time to observe closely, BTC likes to ping off these support & resistances levels frequently. \n\n![5-16-18 5.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmRCkwQzhQNgHnc3Y5izVMuzqB37SSceS7gkW4126ie1zV/5-16-18%205.png)\n \nHere is the zoomed in look at current price with the Chikou as overlay. Notice on BTC attempt past the .618 fib in early May it began to stutter. This is because the Chikou was unable to move past the 1 Fib after a few tries, in other words, BTC was not ready to take on these resistances levels just yet. Since then, the Chikou completed an edge to edge back to the .618 Fib & is currently consolidating on candles. \n\n![5-16-18 2.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmZYnzefb2bLTpDfVad8Qcymk2HvfuuSfX3KW8ebUiJGUL/5-16-18%202.png)\n \nMeanwhile current price fluttered with the .618 Fib and it remained support on BTC’s up thrusts, until it ran out of steam and broke the .618 Fib. Price is currently attempting to find support on the .25 Fib or the top of the Median trend.\n\nIn the coming days, it will be important to pay attention to how the Chikou responds to the .618 Fib & candles it’s consolidating on. The longer the Chikou remains under the .618 Fib, the stronger that resistance grows.  If this support holds, look for current price to make another attempt for an edge to edge back to the broken .618 Fib, which will be hard resistance ~$9.2+. In the event, that BTC continues to slip, retesting of the Median trend ~$7.5K is in the cards.\n\n**Inverse Daily:**\n\nIt’s been a few months since a formal [update](https://steemit.com/btc/@dogevader/btc-update-3-11-18-bears-come-out-to-play) of the inverse chart. At the time, Bears were gaining momentum for their second run for the $6K’s, since then price re-entered the cloud, found support inside the cloud & is attempting to break out of the cloud. Like we reviewed Senkou B Span, it’s important to review Senkou  A span and their differences. \n\n![5-16-18 4.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmNygteP5dAxYhv6X61Lb1FVkti4ickz31Czd3kgmo4iwH/5-16-18%204.png)\n\nRemember that Senkou B Span, **only** takes the highest high & the lowest low of price during a given period of time, this is often why the cloud will be flat and is deemed “hard” resistance or support. Senkou A Span, does not only take the highest high or lowest low or price, rather it is taking the average of Tenkan & Kijun at any given point, hence creating a more jagged and soft shape to the cloud.\n\n>The formula is as follows:\nSenkou A= (Tenkan + Kijun )/ 2\n\nCurrently the Bears have regained the Tenkan as support and are blocked by the Kijun & Senkou A, but as mentioned, this is a soft resistance and if the Bulls are not strong enough to defend, will lead to a Kumo breakout for the Bears. This said, the theme of the update has been Chikou consolidation; at the moment, the Chikou is consolidation on the candles & has Tenkan resistance in front of it as well. Only if these become violated & the Chikou becomes free of resistance is when the Bears will be able to truly breakout.  Finally the RSI is right under resistance levels, a confirmed breakout will give Bears momentum for another leg. \n\n**EMA Follow-up:**\n\nFor those unfamiliar with the EMA follow-up section; BTC shares similarities with the 2013 & 2014 pullbacks in that they were large & drawn out enough to cross the 25 EMA (Fastest) & 100 EMA (Medium) and needed to find support around the 300 EMA or lower. In 2013, there were no further crosses & once price and EMA’s properly re-crossed there was bull continuation. However, in 2014 the 25 EMA crossed with the other EMA’s and eventually price followed for bear continuation.\n\n![5-16-18 3.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmajCcqTDjixtFm6uFRtSAYQhgNBakMDCNzWScmx3iTaZY/5-16-18%203.png)\n \nAt the beginning of [April](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@dogevader/btc-update-4-4-18-mired-in-mediocrity) I had declared the 2013 setup to be dead and don’t feel it is necessary to continue charting it. In the previous [update](https://steemit.com/btc/@dogevader/btc-update-4-28-18-cloud-odyssey-begins) the focus was on the similarities (yellow circles) & contrasting the differences developing between 2014 & 2018. \n\nAt the time of the last update, the 25 EMA was creeping closer to the 100 EMA & teasing a bullish cross. However, like in March when it teased bullish, it was unable to re-cross bullish again. Since then, the 25 EMA has begun to creep down again. Observe in 2014 (purple circle), when the 25 EMA began re-crossing bearish with the other EMA, it became a hard resistance for price to overcome for months. In present day, the 25 EMA has begun acting as resistance again & now price has a confluence of resistances $8.8K+ with the 100 & 200 EMA’s. Currently price is hovering around the 300 EMA, which is beginning to shape up as a heavily tested zone (February-April). It’s still too early to call BTC full on 2014; there will need to be more bearish EMA crosses, but the longer it stays below the 25 EMA, the weaker current price becomes. \n\n**Prognosis:**\n\nSince its revival from the mid $6K’s last month, BTC had been enjoying a steady climb back up, however clearly ran out of steam for more upward momentum. BTC is now in consolidation with the Daily cloud offering it support in the low $8K’s. If BTC does find enough steam for another move back up, there is growing resistance at $8.8K. In the event that Bulls falter, look for support beginning in the mid $7K’s. \n\nIf at any point you find these charts too small to read or want to zoom in, simply right click on the chart & open in new tab for full view.\n\nIf you found this useful & educational, please like, share, & follow.\n\n**steemit: @ dogevader**\n**twitter: @ Noob_Charts**\n\nFinally, if you have any questions or comments, leave them below & happy trading!",
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      "title": "BTC Update 4-28-18: Cloud Odyssey Begins",
      "body": "**Price: ~$9,400**\n\nIn last week’s [update](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@dogevader/btc-update-4-20-18-chikou-s-tale) the focus was on the similarities in the 12HR cloud between February & April. Since then, BTC broke through the 12HR cloud & finally back into the Daily cloud for the first time since February. The 12HR cloud may once again help given some insight on what to expect next from BTC on the Daily, so let’s begin there. \n\n**12HR Cloud:**\n\nAs alluded above, BTC completed the edge to edge move & eventually broke through the 12HR cloud. Notice the subtle differences between attempts 1 & 2, these will be important for explaining the Daily later.\n\n![4-28-18 12 cloud.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmNYnijwZMDLdoB4pBz6RbrP4MdA3fhcfZvsK4oSMdYAor/4-28-18%2012%20cloud.png)\n \n**Step one:**\n\nAttempt 1: The Chikou (past price indicator) ran into the Kijun & found rejection there.\n\nAttempt 2: The Chikou is allowed to pass through the Kijun & eventually through the cloud. Also notice the Chikou retest of cloud support.\n\n**Step two:**\n\nAttempt 1: Price enters the cloud, but Tenkan & Kijun are far and don’t retest, price makes slide down cloud and sets up edge to edge move.\n\nAttempt 2: Price breaks through cloud & does not need to retest bottom of cloud, Tenkan & Kijun are close & begins to follow & support price.\n\n**Step three:**\n\nAttempt 1: Cloud rejection, edge to edge back down & re-break cloud. Tenkan remains flat & unable to support price before eventually breaking down as well.\n\nAttempt 2: Price breaks through the cloud, Chikou finds support on retest of top of cloud & is free of resistance, & Tenkan rises to support price. \n\nAttempt 2 on the whole is clearly more organized, healthier, and displays textbook cloud mechanics. Now keep in mind these “healthy” mechanics you’d want to see from price & cloud when we observe the Daily cloud. Finally, notice there is a “Cloud Cliff” around $11.5K+, which indicates a heavy resistance zone, for more on Cloud Cliffs, read [here](https://steemit.com/btc/@dogevader/btc-update-2-19-18) under 2HR. \n\n**Daily Cloud & Mega Pitchfork:**\n\nAfter bumping back into the Kijun, not since mid-March, BTC was finally able to break past the Kijun & back into the daily Cloud for the first time since February. While this is accomplishment for the Bulls and easy to assume an edge to edge cloud move is bound to happen; it’s still best proceed with cautious optimism for a few reasons. \n\n![4-28-18 cloud.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmV5MXpxu483a64Rvry6DsKsVweoK6wk1vRLWyUYUBxVzs/4-28-18%20cloud.png)\n\n1.\tFuture cloud projection remains bearish with heavy resistance $11.5K+.\n2.\tThe Tenkan has not begun to rise & A bullish Tenkan-Kijun cross has not occurred yet & even if does occur, will likely be below the cloud, which is the weakest cross.\n3.\tChikou is blocked by Cloud resistance $10.5K+. \n \nThis said, remember from above in the 12HR cloud, if BTC can continue to hold the 9K price range long enough for the Tenkan to begin rising as support, the more likely a bullish Tenkan-Kijun cross becomes and later setting up a potential edge to edge move. In the event that BTC falters, the bottom of the cloud & Tenkan (low $8K’s) will be relied on for support.\n\n**EMA Follow-up:**\n\nFor those unfamiliar with the EMA follow-up section; BTC shares similarities with the 2013 & 2014 pullbacks in that they were large & drawn out enough to cross the 25 EMA (Fastest) & 100 EMA (Medium) and needed to find support around the 300 EMA or lower. In 2013, there were no further crosses & once price and EMA’s properly re-crossed there was bull continuation. However, in 2014 the 25 EMA crossed with the other EMA’s and eventually price followed for bear continuation.\n\n![4-28-18 ema 3.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmRPkcfVQ488aeSRqxtyssoWcQ41jkieJteBi1QM57h3oZ/4-28-18%20ema%203.png)\n \nAt the beginning of [April](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@dogevader/btc-update-4-4-18-mired-in-mediocrity) I had declared the 2013 setup to be dead and don’t feel it is necessary to continue charting it. Now that we can focus primarily on 2014 & 2018, it’s easy to see the similarities; however the differences may paint a different outcome this time around.\n\nNotice in 2014, price needed to test the 500 EMA, in 2018 only the 400 EMA. In 2014 BTC’s journey back up on its first attempt, it was unable to get past the 200 EMA, in 2018 broke past the 200 EMA & even briefly peaked past the 100 EMA.\n\nThey both share a similar Eve bottom around the 400 EMA, however BTC’s journey this time up has been slower & possibly even much healthier because of it. In 2018 that the 25 EMA is beginning to creep back up & attempt to re-cross bullish. The longer that BTC remains above the 25 EMA, the stronger it will become. However, also notice in 2014 where the Bearish EMA cross occurred ($666!), became the hard resistance for price on the way back up and eventually spelled doom for price. The Bearish cross in 2018 is around the ~$11.5K level and has already proven tough for price once on its attempt in February.  \n\n**Prognosis:**\n\nBTC has been enjoying a slow & steady climb back into the $9,000’s & Daily cloud. While it’s easy to believe that Bitcoin is back, cautious optimism recommended. Multiple confluence of indicators show heavy resistance beginning around $10.5K with heavier resistance awaiting around $11.5K. If BTC falters, there is growing support in the low $8K’s.\n\nIf at any point you find these charts too small to read or want to zoom in, simply right click on the chart & open in new tab for full view.\n\nIf you found this useful & educational, please like, share, & follow.\n\n**steemit: @ dogevader**\n**twitter: @ Noob_Charts**\n\nFinally, if you have any questions or comments, leave them below & happy trading!",
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      "title": "BTC Update 4-20-18: Chikou’s Tale",
      "body": "**Current Price: ~$8,300**\n\nBTC is beginning to display similarities to it’s 1st attempt back into the 12HR cloud in February. Back in February, BTC created a sharp bottom around $6K & managed to break back inside the Tenkan, before climbing it’s way back to the 12HR cloud. Let’s rehash the diagnostics of what happened there to explain what is beginning to shape up now.\n\n**12HR:**\n\n**Step one:**\n\nThe Chikou (past price indicator) ran into the Kijun & found rejection there.\n\n**Step two:**\n\nCurrent price making a gentle slide down the cloud and setting up an edge to edge move. \n\n**Step three:**\n\nCloud rejection, edge to edge back down & re-break cloud. Also notice back in Step two, there is a Chikou rejection as well. Meaning past price was unable to hold those resistance levels, contributing to the pullback. \n\n![4-20-18 5.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmajP3QP5hspTpDthr9R9mrBqMzYDX7mwq2bARRHEzK4cm/4-20-18%205.png)\n\nIf you are interested in reading more about the 12HR cloud specifics back in February, I have them well documented:\n\n[2-15-18](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@dogevader/btc-update-2-15-18)\n[2-23-18](https://steemit.com/btc/@dogevader/btc-update-2-23-18-retesting-begun)\n[3-4-18](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@dogevader/btc-update-3-4-18)\n \nJump to present day & can see the similarities beginning to take shape. BTC has a rounder bottom this time around & the Kijun is much closer to current price. We can also see that price has begun to test the Kijun for support & passed a few times; indicating that support is being created at these levels, whereas, last time this did not happen before. Finally, the Tenkan is slowly grinding it’s way up and will be tested for a bullish cross. \n\n**Prognosis:**\n\nThis said however, the tale will be told in the Chikou as last time. Currently, the Chikou is below the Kijun, but notice that the Kijun is not as steep this time. If the Chikou is able to pass through the Kijun this time, there is still cloud resistance waiting around (~$9.2K) and will likely begin an extended consolidation phase inside the 12HR cloud ($7.6-9.2K). In the event that the Chikou becomes rejected again, look for no immediate support till $7.6-8K (bottom of cloud & Kijun), followed by a possible repeat of February.\n\nIf at any point you find these charts too small to read or want to zoom in, simply right click on the chart & open in new tab for full view.\n\nIf you found this useful & educational, please like, share, & follow.\n\n**steemit: @ dogevader**\n**twitter: @ Noob_Charts**\n\nFinally, if you have any questions or comments, leave them below & happy trading!",
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      "title": "BTC Update 4-4-18: Mired in Mediocrity",
      "body": "**Price: ~$7,000**\n\nHello everyone, long time no see! To those that have survived the crypto-pocalypse, I commend you! Apologies for being away a bit, I’ve been a busy Doge in real life and haven’t had enough time to write lately. There’s a lot to catch up! I’ll do my best to both recap recent price action as well as talk about what to be on lookout for. Let's get started.\n\n**Cloud & Pitchfork:**\n\n![4-4-18.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmdDLsjbusgBG18GHWgKtUwoX1MRD4XRnoZWCAddRudQpT/4-4-18.png)\n\n*Recap:*\n\nSince last [update](https://steemit.com/btc/@dogevader/btc-update-3-11-18-bears-come-out-to-play) , the daily Kijun has remained relatively flat & price has been in free fall mode since the rejections of $9K. While the Kijun has been flat, the Tenkan has not & recrossed bearish last week. The cloud resistance has grown considerably, with hard resistance for bulls hovering around $8K at the moment. Finally, the pitchfork is showing BTC has been hovering around the .25 Fib (purple), which was support during the $6K pullback in February. \n\n*Current:*\n\nAs mentioned above, many cloud indicators are heavily bearish at the moment and will remain so till BTC gets back inside the Tenkan. Also notice that the Chikou is receiving rejection of the .618 Fib (~$7.6K), meaning that past price has found resistance at this level, confirmed by pitchfork fib. \n\nBTC is hovering around the $7K region, an important area from a pitchfork perspective, as the .25 Fib (purple) was support during the $6K pullback. Re-breaking of this fib support, would likely mean BTC at least revisits the median trend line / local low in the mid $6K’s. However, like the cloud, pitchfork fibs perform Edge to Edge moves as well and an edge to edge move for the median channel would be a dip to $6K again. Finally, this is potentially significant because it would be the first time since mid-2017 that BTC dipped below the median channel & could signify hard resistance for Bear market for quite some time. \n \n**Inverse Cloud:**\n\n![4-4-18 2.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmV1Uup2CCMfrbrGAL99YSpbPBUHnMVo8nZ6R17RZCoeRH/4-4-18%202.png)\n\n*Recap:*\n\nFor those that have been following along, the inverse cloud has been a fascinating indicator to watch during this Bear market. Since we last spoke, the Tenkan & Kijun have been strong support for Bears, creating four strong rejections for bulls & allowing bear continuation. Finally, as mentioned above, cloud strength continues to grow for the Bears, indicating that even if BTC does find a reversal, there will be strong support for Bears $8K+. \n\n*Current:*\n\nPrice was able to find support near the Tenkan and while not a true bounce, is plausible at the moment. Price is hovering around yesterday’s open, this will be the tell if the bounce is real or not. Break through yesterday’s open & Bears can begin to open up & attempt for the local high (mid $6K’s). However, it will be contingent on how the RSI trend follows, at the moment the Bears are currently wedged under RSI resistance, break through & continuation, otherwise potential breakdown. \n\nIn event of continuation, BTC will begin to push into the $6K’s & may be able to attempt or break the local high of $6K. In the event of breakdown, there’s a plausible Head & shoulders developing from the mid-March till now, I believe it’s too early to say just yet, but something to be keeping an eye on, in which case would bring BTC back to Kijun around $9K. \n \n**Daily EMA:**\n\nFor those unfamiliar with the EMA follow-up section; BTC shares similarities with the 2013 & 2014 pullbacks in that they were large & drawn out enough to cross the 25 EMA (Fastest) & 100 EMA (Medium) and needed to find support around the 300 EMA or lower. In 2013, there were no further crosses & once price and EMA’s properly re-crossed there was bull continuation. However, in 2014 the 25 EMA crossed with the other EMA’s and eventually price followed for bear continuation.\n\n![4-4-18 3.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmQrmhFYo7uEPFapxQkr9qo4HPtoj5PLxW6fnSu3nWySrW/4-4-18%203.png)\n \n*Recap:*\n\nThe 25 EMA continues to dive & has re-crossed with the 200 EMA, which for all intents & purposes kills the 2013 setup from my perspective, and confirms the interim Bear market with the 200 EMA (~$9K) being the hard resistance barrier. However, this does not automatically mean there will be a full on 2014 either, that’s still too be determined, but for all intents & purposes 2013 setup is officially dead. \n\n*Current:*\n\nPrice is below the 300 EMA & attempting a bottom on the 400 EMA, however also notice that the 25 EMA is quickly approaching the 300 EMA and likely will cross given that price has stayed below, which will be a strong signal for bear continuation. If BTC does follow a similar pattern to 2014, I believe BTC is around the yellow arrow, which if plays out could create a panic to the 500 EMA ($6K) or lower.  In the event that this does play out similarly, there could equally be a FOMO surge back to the 200 EMA (~$9K), but as mentioned earlier, this will now be hard resistance for the Bulls. \n\n**Prognosis:**\n\nBTC continues to feel the illness of the Bear market and is nearing a crucial stage. There are a confluence of strong resistance ~$8K+ and support ~$<6K, whichever of these budges first will likely set trend for the next few months+. At the moment bears have momentum on their side, however BTC is also looking like it could be setting up for an extended sideways the longer Bulls defends the $6-7K bottoms.\n\nIf at any point you find these charts too small to read or want to zoom in, simply right click on the chart & open in new tab for full view.\n\nIf you found this useful & educational, please like, share, & follow.\n\n**steemit: @ dogevader**\n**twitter: @ Noob_Charts**\n\nFinally, if you have any questions or comments, leave them below & happy trading!",
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