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      "title": "Históricamente, ¿el S&P 500 se ha duplicado cada 10 años?",
      "body": "Es una muy buena pregunta pero lo que sugieres es falso. Déjame explicarte porque.\n\nCompartí una regla, que te permite saber en cuanto tiempo se te duplica una inversión. Consiste en dividir 72 por tu retorno anual y obtendrás el tiempo necesario para duplicar tu dinero.\n\nAquí ya nos diste el tiempo: 10 años. Entonces miremos al contrario, ¿qué tasa necesito para duplicar mi inversión en 10 años?\n\nDividimos 72 por 10 (cf regla) y obtenemos 7.2%.\n\n**Para duplicar tu inversión cada 10 años deberías tener una rentabilidad anual neta de 7.2% (aproximadamente).**\n\nAhora miremos el S&P500…\n\nTu pregunta sería correcta si el S&P500 tuviera un desempeño anual histórico igual o mayor al 7%.\n\n**La respuesta es que no.**\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmPiGWKQhmuoskYHm6BL4SNNwsTLq2HjiCvSKgKwMNESTB/image.png)\n\n\nAquí te hice una tabla resumen:\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXKyJLaMfMj3yDL1pVujNy7Ls4pBAJ2ackDtL64GYsJYw/image.png)\n\n\n**En promedio, el S&P500 tuvo un retorno del 6.5% anual.**\n\nCasi los 7.2% necesarios para duplicar cada 10 años. Con la tasa del 6.5% anual el S&P500 se duplica cada 11 años EN PROMEDIO.\n\nAdicionalmente, para que esta respuesta quede super completa, cabe resaltar que estos resultados son brutos.\n\nDespués de impuestos tus resultados serán entre 10 y 30% menores (según tu país).\n\nEn todo caso, si el S&P500 y las inversiones en bolsa te interesan, sigue aprendiendo para obtener resultados aún mejores que el S&P500!\n\nUna buena manera de aprender más sería leyendo mi artículo completo sobre el S&P500: [¿Qué es el s&p500? ¿Cómo invertir en él?](https://xn--desarrllate-veb.com/que-es-el-sp500/)\n\nSaludos\n\nHector",
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      "title": "¿Qué es el S&P 500?",
      "body": "Conocer el S&P500 es primordial antes de invertir en bolsa. Hace parte de los fundamentos.\n\n**Te voy a compartir todo lo que tienes que saber sobre el S&P500.**\n\nPrimero que todo, el S&P500 es un índice bursátil. Es decir que es un indicador del desempeño de un conjunto de empresas. La \"S\" y la \"P\" son las iniciales de Standard & Poor's, una reconocida agencia de calificación de riesgo. Esta agencia fue la que creo el índice S&P500 en los años 1957.\n\nEn realidad fue una evolución, el primer índice de Standard & Poor's fue en el año 1923, evolucionó al S&P90, pasando por varias etapas para llegar al S&P500 como lo conocemos hoy.\n\n**Existen muchos índices en el mundo de las inversiones.**\n\nEl S&P500 es uno, el NASDAQ es otro. El CAC40 y DAX30 son los índices de referencia en Francia y Alemania respectivamente. El NASDAQ es un índice de empresas tecnológicas.\n\nEl S&P500 como lo habrás adivinado, es un índice que representa las 500 empresas más grandes de los Estados-Unidos (que cotizan en bolsa).\n\nDentro de estas empresas puedes encontrar a Amazon, Accenture, Facebook, eBay, Intel, Kraft Heinz por mencionar algunas.\n\nAl final de la respuesta te comparto un extracto donde podrás ver 10 empresas que componen el S&P500. No te sorprendas si en la lista observas dos veces la misma empresa. Algunas tienen dos tipos de acciones, Clase A y Clase B, por eso pueden aparecer varias veces.\n\nUna vez entendido lo que es el S&P500, la pregunta más frecuente es la siguiente:\n\n**¿Es rentable invertir en el S&P500?**\n\nLa respuesta es que sí. Invertir a largo plazo en el S&P500 es rentable.\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXKyJLaMfMj3yDL1pVujNy7Ls4pBAJ2ackDtL64GYsJYw/image.png)\n\n\n\nHice varios análisis con datos del pasado, y con diferentes escenarios de inversión.\n\nSi tienes un horizonte de tiempo superior a 10 años tienes una probabilidad del 80% de ser rentable. Si inviertes por 20 años esa probabilidad sube al 100% .\n\n**CUIDADO: son análisis sobre datos pasados, no garantizan los resultados futuros.**\n\nPara leer el resto del análisis puedes visitar la publicación original: [¿Qué es el s&p500? ¿Cómo invertir en él?](https://xn--desarrllate-veb.com/que-es-el-sp500/)\n\nSaludos\n\nHector Gonzalez\n\npd: 10 empresas del S&P500\n\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmfLtJv143hArPevzbb24vhBE3xNuogT3QR8ie9SrHtyyP/image.png)",
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      "title": "¿Vale la pena comprar oro cómo forma de inversión?",
      "body": "**NO. El oro no es una buena inversión.**\n\nEmpecemos mirando el desempeño del oro a largo plazo. En los últimos 30 años:\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVqV6UZLjjXL19dyWB6r6VhxnsPhZdoBUq67KpZKmksUC/image.png)\n\n\nDesde esta perspectiva el oro pasó de unos 12 000 USD/kg en los años 90, a 55 000 USD/kg en los años 2020.\n\nEs una multiplicación del precio por 4.5 en 30 años.\n\nSi lo miras así, invertir en oro parece ser una inversión rentable.\n\nAhora quiero que lo pongamos en perspectiva.\n\nEn la siguiente gráfica te quiero enseñar el desempeño del oro contra el mercado bursátil: S&P500 y Dow Jones:\n\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZ75CCcoogQNjjGTkkofRKYF9oGE8YCF9PtmjXPyxGMq1/image.png)\n\nEn amarillo podemos confirmar que efectivamente el oro tuvo su precio multiplicado por 4,5 en esos 30 años.\n\nAhora bien, el S&P500 y el Dow Jones, tuvieron una multiplicación por 9.\n\n**\"En los últimos 30 años, el mercado bursátil tuvo un desempeño 2 veces más alto que el oro.\"**\n\nInvertir en oro: 0\nInvertir en bolsa: 1\n\n**Invertir en oro no es una buena elección.**\n\nHice la comparación con 4 criterios más. Los puedes descubrir en mi artículo:\n\n[Invertir en oro o en bolsa: ¿Qué es mejor? - 5 criterios de comparación](https://xn--desarrllate-veb.com/oro-papel/)\n\nSaludos\n\nHector Gonzalez",
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      "title": "¿Es un buen momento para comprar oro?",
      "body": "No es un buen momento para comprar oro. Simplemente no lo es. Te voy a contar porque.\n\nBueno, primero que todo esto solo es mi opinión personal, no es una recomendación.\n\nNo soy fan del oro, por múltiples razones que ya expliqué en detalle por aquí.\n\nVolviendo a tu pregunta, no es un buen momento para comprar oro porque está a su precio máximo DE TODOS LOS TIEMPOS. El oro está rompiendo record tras record.\n\n**Mira por ti mismo:**\n\n![image.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeg1ziwEkdUFAt2kqEs12eQcD968kx8yUkJtEDFBEgx27/image.png)\n\n\n\nEn los 50 últimos años el oro nunca había estado tan costoso.\n\nSi apenas empiezas a invertir te puedo aconsejar una regla. Tal vez la regla más importante:\n\n**\"Si eres principiantes, nunca inviertas cuando el mercado está en su máximo.\"**\n\nLas inversiones son un tema complejo. Requieren disciplina, estrategia y conocimiento. Todo lo que no tiene un principiante.\n\nCómo sabes el oro es un valor refugio. Los inversionistas suelen comprarlo cuando la economía va mal y venderlo cuando todo va bien.\n\nPregúntate lo siguiente: ¿lo peor de la crisis sanitaria está por venir? ¿Los mercado anticiparon ese \"peor\" o el futuro nos prepara sorpresas negativas?\n\nSi piensas que sí, especulas que el oro podría subir más.\nSi piensas que no, no inviertas en oro.\n\nAsí de sencillo. **Y no olvides la regla que te compartí.**\n\nSaludos\n\nHector Gonzalez\n\npd: si finalmente decides comprar oro, escribí una guía completa sobre el tema para que evites los errores usuales. La puedes leer [aquí](https://xn--desarrllate-veb.com/como-comprar-oro/) (gratis)",
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