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      "body": "### 目录\n\n[［第一章 加密货币］](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@cryptoarticles/47m4m8)\n[［第二章 比特币的诞生］](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@cryptoarticles/7jrtzk)\n[［第三章 以太坊和去中心化应用］](https://steemit.com/chinese/@cryptoarticles/gq6u9)\n[［第四章 去中心化应用的优劣］](https://steemit.com/chinese/@cryptoarticles/6cndzv)\n[［第五章 结语：从泡沫走向未来］](https://steemit.com/chinese/@cryptoarticles/623zco)\n___\n\n［第五章 结语：从泡沫走向未来］\n\n比特币2017年上涨超过15倍，以太币上涨超过50倍。加密货币的总市值达到了超过5000亿美元，一年前这个数字只有大概120亿美元。为什么呢？\n\n__我们如何来解释这种狂热呢？__\n\n就好像历史上所有的资产狂热一样，这年头，大家都不大理智……\n\n让我们来看看买家和卖家的心理活动，先从买家开始。\n\n如果你很早就投资了比特币或者以太坊，恭喜你，你已经赚翻了。你心理上可能会感觉你在用别人“白送给”你的钱来玩。你会对自己聪明的投资沾沾自喜，而且会愿意尝试更大的风险。你就会琢磨要不要分散一下风险，用赚来的钱再来买下一个或者其他好几个加密资产。\n\n如果你之前没有投资比特币或者以太坊，你心理有可能一直在后悔错过了好几个亿，这种懊恼会一直积累下去，直到有一天，你说出“我去，不管了，我反正要买一点”的那一刻。也许你曾经读过关于比特币的文章，但是没有读懂，而且你听了股神巴菲特的（正确的）建议，不投资那些你不懂的东西。你身边有的朋友赚了不少钱，不过你还是置身事外。然后你可能又听说了以太坊，你也没看懂，也决定不碰它，结果后来发现有的朋友因为买了它已经开始准备退休了。这个故事好像非常反常规：好像你“应该”投资在那些你不懂的东西上（和巴菲特的理论正好相反）……类似这样的故事就使得很多人在这几轮的暴涨中丢掉了理智，一轮接一轮地入市了。\n\n这其实不大靠谱。\n\n因为这些购买力不少来自于那些觉得自己反正也看不懂，只是想在这个很复杂又有点酷的东西上赌一把的人们。\n\n我们转过来看看谁是这个市场中的卖家。我主要指的不是那些卖已有加密资产的卖家们，我说的是新币的发行方们。也就是那些发起新型的加密资产的团队们。\n\n他们基本的发行手段就是先预售一部分的加密资产来给他们正在搭建的去中心化应用来融资。项目的创始人们一般会留一部分加密资产给自己。在这种规则下，这些项目的融资是（1）不会被稀释的（不像股权融资）（2）不需要偿付（不像债权融资）。这基本上就是白送的钱……历史上，对创业者们还从来没有这么优惠过，哪怕在90年代的互联网泡沫顶峰的时期。这也就让人们蠢蠢欲动，人们想方设法得去把项目和“initial coin offering”扯上关系，哪怕他们并不是在做一个去中心化的应用。毕竟，ICO让你在项目都还没上线之前就可以拿钱退出。\n\n>这也就是这个市场所带来的融资的便利性，传统的大部分初创企业的早期员工和投资人都要到努力到公开上市才能退出\n\n目前还有一种在ICO圈子里广为流传的论调，说的是当你在项目上线之前预售你的币的时候，你也就创建了一个“布道师”群体，他们是你们的早期用户，也会为宣传你的项目而努力。如果没有那些经济利益，你是很难找到这样的一个群体的。\n\n这种想法的问题就在于它把早期投资人和早期用户混为一谈了。买你的币的人和那些真正需要使用你的服务的那些人，他们的交集有可能是非常的小的，尤其是在当下这个狂热的市场里。无形中，这种想法就人为的给创业者们创造了一种“我们的产品很适合这个市场”的感觉。是的，人们在买你的币，但是这是因为这个“市场”是一群想要赚快钱的人组成的，而你的“产品”就是他们赚快钱的工具。\n\n>这里吐槽的就是创业者们可能都没有意识到他们创造出来的产品在很多情况下成为了大家炒作的工具，而不是使用的工具\n\n![Price-curve](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/1*KwQ9xdCcSGOWvxGDWCEsHA.png)\n\n但是，一切都还“好”。\n\n每个人都在赚钱。至少到目前为止。只要那条蓝线一直向上。\n\n只有当潮水退去，你才知道谁在裸泳。\n\n__与此同时，我也不会轻易跳出来看空加密资产。__\n\n将来难以预测，猜错了，你就得吃瘪。\n\n我们让数字来说话。在过去的几年里，整个加密资产的市场是成指数上升的。到2022年，今天大部分的加密资产可能都不存在了。大部分2013，2014年那一波里头涌现的加密资产到今天也已经不复存在了，但是其中有一个很重要的加密资产存活了下来，成为了支持其他资产的平台，并且市值上升了成千上万倍，它就是以太坊。\n\n![marketcap](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/1*W0BqredNU2ydWC0jkGKL0A.png)\n\n__所以，吉米，说了这么多，让我来为您总结一下：__\n* 加密货币（我个人更喜欢用加密资产这个词）是一种新型的资产，它支撑着去中心化的应用\n* 去中心化的应用可以提供和我们今天熟悉的传统应用类似的服务，但是却不需要一个特定的公司机构来运营\n* 这种软件模型对于那些没法使用或者不想使用传统服务的人们（不管是因为经济原因还是其他原因）特别有用\n* 大部分人还是用传统服务好了，毕竟它们目前来说还是比去中心化的应用要好用10倍……\n* 我们很难预测社会到底以后会不会接纳这种新的技术\n* 长期来看，加密资产的价值取决于多少人使用那些去中心化的应用\n* 短期来看，这个市场还会继续地波动下去，贪婪和恐惧，多头和空头还会继续争斗下去\n* 最近入市的人们，很多人都把他们的理智留在门外了\n* 很多在卖那些新的加密资产的团队，并没有老老实实得搭建他们的去中心化应用，而是找了个理由把他们的项目和ICO扯在一起，就为了赶上市场上这一波的狂热。这并不是说去中心化应用它不好，而是说目前各种项目鱼龙混杂，很多人趁机浑水摸鱼在捞钱，当然也许他们自己也不大清楚他们到底要做什么\n* 长线来看，不要轻易做空加密资产：比特币正要跨入它的第十个年头，各种迹象都表明它存在的价值。去中心化应用将来也很有可能在我们熟悉的应用圈里找到属于它们的一席之地\n\n敬祝商祺，\nAdam\n\nP.s. 你会发现我全篇避免使用区块链这个词，就是因为这个词也被滥用了。我担心用这个词反而会把大家弄糊涂。\n\nP.p.s. 我也没有提到另一个很相近的市场，也就是企业级的加密账本的应用。我这里另有一篇关于它的[文章](https://blog.chain.com/introducing-sequence-e14ff70b730)。 \n\n___\n\n<center>～未来已来，只是尚未流行。你准备好了吗？～</center>",
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      "parent_permlink": "chinese",
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      "permlink": "6cndzv",
      "title": "《致吉米戴蒙书》 第四章 去中心化应用的优劣",
      "body": "### 目录\n\n[［第一章 加密货币］](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@cryptoarticles/47m4m8)\n[［第二章 比特币的诞生］](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@cryptoarticles/7jrtzk)\n[［第三章 以太坊和去中心化应用］](https://steemit.com/chinese/@cryptoarticles/gq6u9)\n[［第四章 去中心化应用的优劣］](https://steemit.com/chinese/@cryptoarticles/6cndzv)\n[［第五章 结语：从泡沫走向未来］](https://steemit.com/chinese/@cryptoarticles/623zco)\n___\n\n［第四章 去中心化应用的优劣］\n\n>前言：上一章我们说到以太坊和去中心化应用，同时我们也说到去中心化的应用也还是有属于它们的局限性的，那就是……\n\n相对于传统软件来说，去中心化的应用到底是不是对大部分人有用，目前还并不是很明了。\n\n__简单来说，你总不能说对所有人来说比特币转账都要比PayPal或者Chase Quickpay好吧？或者，难道对每个人来说，文件币都要比Dropbox或者iCloud好用？又或者，难道以太坊对于每个人来说都比Amazon EC2或者Microsoft Azure要好用？__\n\n实际上，几乎在任何一个层面，去中心化的服务都要输给它们相对应的中心化的服务。\n* 它们比较慢\n* 它们比较贵\n* 它们没那么容易支持大量的用户\n* 它们的用户界面可能不大好\n* 它们可能会遇到各种不确定的监管问题\n\n这不是仅仅因为它们还是很新的技术。这里有一些的问题在根本上并不会因为更大的区块，闪电网络，分叉或者其他的技术革新而发生变化。\n\n这是因为这些设计有的是为了满足主要的设计目的，而从根本上做出的设计考量。在这些设计考量背后有着最根本的设计目的：去中心化。\n\n>如何让去中心化的应用们更好用，更能匹敌它们相对应的中心化的应用，这其实也是一个非常火热的研究领域，比如以太坊的Casper升级，就包含了Proof of Work到Proof of Stake的转变，从而可以减少挖矿的能源消耗，也可以使得以太坊更scalable，还有不少其他币在算法上或者数据结构上进行了各种的创新尝试\n\n还记得我们在第二章提过的矿工们要参与的复杂的竞赛吗？既然是复杂的竞赛，就有它的代价，它限制了这个网络每个单位时间能处理的交易数量。我们提到过，用户需要给他们每笔交易做一个数字签名（用私钥来生成）。这样一来，用户就要更加小心得保管他们的私钥，因为你丢了就没法再恢复了（不像其他网络服务，哪怕你忘记了密码，还可以恢复回来）。我们还提到过这个网络并不依赖于一个“特点的节点”来运营。这一点带来的缺点就是那我们就没有很好管理节点们的办法。\n\n当然，你可以做一些改动使得去中心化的应用更好用一点，比如说，把大家的私钥都集中在一起（也就是帮大家存放加密资产）。但是这样一来，我们又白忙活了，还不如直接用一个中心化的应用呢。\n\n所以，比特币其实并不太适合“去中心化的PayPal”这样的称号。确切的来说，它就是一个超级慢的电子支付网络，但是好处是它是去中心化的。\n\n__敲黑板，划重点啦：中心化的应用几乎在所有层面上都要甩去中心化的应用几条街。。__\n\n__除了唯一一个层面。__\n\n而且在这个层面上，去中心化应用不仅仅比中心化应用要好很多，而且是目前实现这一点的唯一办法。我到底在说啥？\n\n__Censorship resistance__\n\n这就是我想说的。\n\n>原文作者特别强调这一点，但是实际上去中心化应用其他更多的优势也渐渐被大家理解和认同了，比如去中心化应用降低了创建的应用的融资门槛，实际上无形中提供了一个金融平台，传统的融资工具一般是为了大公司们存在的，初创企业一般除了寻找天使投资之外并没有很多融资手段，去中心化应用确有很多的手段来进行筹资；还有就是去中心化应用可以自发运营，也可以“永远”存在下去，等等\n\nCensorship resistance就意味着去中心化应用的接入是开放，无限制的。这些服务上的交易是不可阻挡的。\n\n比如说，如果我想给谁发一点比特币，没有任何人可以阻止我。也没有人可以阻止我在以太坊上执行代码。没有人可以阻止我在“文件币”上存储文件。只要我有网络，而且愿意支付这个网络里的交易费用（用的就是这个网络的加密资产来付），我想做什么就可以做什么。\n\n（如果说比特币蕴含了资本主义的精髓，它同时也蕴含了资本主义的自由与平等。这也是为什么有些自由主义者对它会有点疯狂。）\n\n>换个角度来看，比特币的去中心化的网络还政于民，作为一个集体共有的组织，对矿工们按劳分配，其中其实也有几分社会主义的味道\n\n各位加密资产的支持者们，如果你觉得我说的不靠谱，你也可以看看Adam Back和Charlie Lee是怎么说的。\n\n![Quotes](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1400/1*2-__f-phfkMgEQcwvEc9hw.png)\n\n这样看来，虽然我们不可以说“对所有人来说，比特币都比Visa要好用”，但是对于某些用户来说，比特币确实是他们能用来做电子交易的唯一选择。\n\n我们也可以反过来问：对哪些人来说，那些速度，用户体验上的损失是值得的。\n\n![Trade-off](https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/1*LqpR_ta2GBl8LUiw4bOyQg.png)\n\n在这里我不是说你需要牺牲用户体验和速度来买或者投机加密资产。我说的是对去中心化应用的使用人群来说，他们要忍受这些去中心化应用的缺点。\n\n所以，那到底是哪些人愿意忍受呢？\n\n我们很难拿到很好的数据，但是大致上来说，去中心化应用的用户一般来说可能可以分成这两类\n1. 那些没有接入传统服务的人们：很多第三世界国家的人们，因为种种原因（可能是没有足够的经济效益，没有公司来提供），没有传统服务，但是他们可以连上互联网\n1. 那些不想使用传统服务的人们：有些人不想让他们的活动被传统的机构记录在案或者被监管\n\n基于这些分析，我们不由要问：\n* 对谁来说，比特币是最好的，甚至是唯一的交易方法\n* 对谁来说，文件币是最好的，甚至是唯一的存储文件的方法\n* 对谁来说，以太坊是最好的，甚至是唯一的运行代码的方法\n\n这些问题也就是分析去中心化应用这个技术的价值的时候，需要问的根本问题。\n\n目前为止，大部分的去中心化应用相对于传统的服务来说，没啥用……比如比特币，今天在美国，接受它的商家反而还比2014年少。也有人说比特币可以成为发展中国家的支付系统，但是比如在中国，反而是那些传统软件（手机应用）比如支付宝，微信支付颠覆了曾经的纸币交易，占了绝对主流。\n\n>退一万步说，比特币给世界上的所有人提供了一种传统金融银行服务之外的第二选择，对于某些第三世界国家，他们可能都没有足够的银行网点，哪怕在发达国家，跨区域金融交易动辄需要数天甚至几周才能完成，而比特币确实解决了很多这样的问题，它确实是一个为互联网而生的世界性的平台\n\n与此同时，确实有人说比特币被暗网使用，虽然很难找到这方面的资料数据。\n\n但是，不是也有人买比特币来保值吗？对，不过这也只是换了种说法来称呼那些比特币的长线投资者罢了。我在这里不是想讨论加密资产的投资，我想说的是到底有没有人觉得去中心化的支付系统（比如比特币）对他们来说有用。房地产只有有人住才有长期的价值。这对于去中心化应用也一样。\n\n那如果我们用类似的逻辑来分析以太坊呢？毕竟，好多程序员在上面开发应用。既然以太坊是一个开发去中心化应用的去中心化的平台。那是说这些程序或者程序员在上面有了更多的自由吗？可以这么说。程序员和创业公司们经常没办法直接使用世界上的传统金融服务。虽然以太坊并没有提供接入这些传统服务的方法，它确实提供了一种不同的平台，在这个平台上，你也可以创建并且执行金融合同。\n\n>无形中它其实成为了一种初创企业的融资的工具，就好像一个发放股权的Kickstarter平台，但是它同时又允许股权在二级市场上交易，这一点我们在下一章还会说到\n\n既然以太坊是一个平台，那它的价值说到底应该取决于它上面的应用们的价值。换句话说，我们看看以太坊上有没有啥有用的应用，就知道它的价值了。比如，我们需要一个自由的德州扑克应用吗？我们需要一个自由的YouTube或者Twitter吗？\n\n虽然现在还太早下定论，但是如果以太坊上的[大几百个应用](https://www.stateofthedapps.com)如果都没啥用的话，这还是能说明点什么的。在互联网创始的第一年，我们就有了聊天室，电子邮件，体育新闻，这些应用。我们在以太坊上发现了什么有用的应用了吗？\n\n那这说明了啥？\n\n既然它们的模型和我们所熟知的应用的模型这么不同，到底会有人真的去用它们吗？它们会成为经济的重要组成部分吗？这很难说，因为这同时取决于这个技术的发展，也取决于社会对于这项技术的接纳程度。\n\n比如一直到最近，给消息加密的技术一直只有黑客之类的少数人在使用。这好像没啥不对的，但是突然一切就变了。在斯诺登告密事件和特朗普上台之后，所有人，从硅谷到东海岸，都用上了它。是的，技术革新是一方面，但是，同时社会上的变化推动了它的应用。\n\n换句话说，我们在雨林里长大，但是有时候我们还是需要知道如何适应其他的环境，来应对将来一旦离开雨林所要面对的挑战。\n\n这也是很多早期投资人的观点：这个领域方兴未艾，难以直接下一个定论。如果有一天，一个或者多个去中心化的应用成为了世界经济的一部分，支撑它们的加密资产一定会非常值钱。那还不如先赌一把。\n\n这也有一定的道理，我也大致同意。\n\n他们的观点总结来说就是：长期来看，一种加密资产的价值完全由它所属的去中心化应用的价值来决定。现在还很早，它们的高估值体现了对于它们的巨大的期望，虽然接受这些应用的人不一定很多，但是这些应用对世界的影响一定是巨大的。那不如赌一把，然后看看到底接下来会发展成什么样。\n\n___\n\n<center>～接下来的第五章也是这个系列的最终章，我们会聊一聊狂热的市场和它的未来～</center>",
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      "title": "《致吉米戴蒙书》 第三章 以太坊和去中心化应用",
      "body": "### 目录\n\n[［第一章 加密货币］](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@cryptoarticles/47m4m8)\n[［第二章 比特币的诞生］](https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@cryptoarticles/7jrtzk)\n[［第三章 以太坊和去中心化应用］](https://steemit.com/chinese/@cryptoarticles/gq6u9)\n[［第四章 去中心化应用的优劣］](https://steemit.com/chinese/@cryptoarticles/6cndzv)\n[［第五章 结语：从泡沫走向未来］](https://steemit.com/chinese/@cryptoarticles/623zco)\n___\n\n［第三章 以太坊和去中心化应用］\n\n>前言：在第二章里我们说到比特币的诞生，比特币的网络结构，还有矿工是如何消耗电力来“挖矿”赚取比特币的。在这一章里，让我们沿着上一章关于“挖矿”的讨论，来聊一聊什么是广义上的去中心化应用，然后引出关于以太坊的讨论。本文成文之时，恰逢以太币在各大主流交易所上创下单日35%的涨幅，达到680美元的历史新高。就让我们来看一看它们背后到底有什么样的故事。\n\n说到挖矿这件事上，既然矿工们需要付出金钱代价来挖矿（大部分是电费），他们就很有可能需要到交易所卖掉那些他们赚来的比特币来付他们的电费，付完电费剩下的就是他们的利润了。这样，比特币就得以在市场中流通。需要它的人们可以去买比特币，当然想要投机的人们也可以去买。（我们回头会分析哪些人“需要”比特币，哪些人是通过比特币来投机）\n\nBingo！这是一个一石二鸟的设计：为了维持这个去中心化的支付网络，我们需要付给矿工们的奖赏（比特币）同时也是可以在这个去中心化的支付网络中流通，并且__携带价值__的__数字资产__。\n>如果你还记得第二章的话，我们提过数据本身是不带有价值的，只有经过信用第三方鉴定和检验的数据，我们才会相信。在这里，通过一种崭新的设计，每个比特币钱包里资产余额的数据，就是一种不需要特定的信用第三方，而是通过全网络共同鉴定的数据，这样，它就有了储存和携带价值的功能\n\n现在，你对比特币已经有一定的了解了，那我们就来把它的概念进一步地推广到广义的去中心化的应用上。\n\n__一般来说，通过去中心化的应用，你可以在不需要一个特定的机构的情况下，实现一些以前通过互联网或者电脑就可以实现的服务（比如电子支付）。__\n>虽然强调的是前半句，但是这些服务一般来说是可以通过普通网络来实现的，这点对于理解去中心化应用之于传统互联网应用的相对价值也很重要\n\n打个比方：我们可以弄一个新的去中心化应用叫文件币，然后用户可以在它的点对点的网络上存储文件，就好像在其他中心化的应用（比如Dropbox，还有Amazon S3）上存储文件一样。然后把它的加密资产也叫做文件币，这个应用就可以通过支付文件币来鼓励节点们来分享多余的硬盘空间。\n\n文件的数字存储并没有什么新奇的。电子支付也不是什么新发明。唯一不同的是，现在这些应用可以不需要一个特定的公司来运营了。这就形成了一种全新的组织形式。\n\n<center>![dapps](https://blocktrak.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Blockchain_Ethereum_Bitcoin_Oracle_Cryptocurrency_Data_Blocktrak.png)</center>\n\n我们再来举一个例子，这个例子可能会有点绕：\n\n“以太坊”是一个去中心化的应用，它为创建更多的去中心化的应用提供了一个的平台。我相信你一定已经听说过“initial coin offerings”（ICOs）和“代币”。大部分这些都是建立在以太坊上的。今天，你已经不需要像当年中本聪创建比特币一样，从零开始搭建一个去中心化的应用，你可以在以太坊已有的网络上搭建各种各样的去中心化应用。这是因为以太坊创建的目的就是为了可以成为一个平台，程序员们可以在上面搭建应用，执行各种代码。\n\n以太坊的规则鼓励各个节点贡献它的计算资源给整个网络。这样子，节点就可以得到以太币，也就是以太坊的加密资产。这就让以太坊成为了一种新型的计算平台，这种平台专门为去中心化应用服务。它不是云计算，因为以太坊本身也是去中心化的。因为它不是云计算，那应该叫它啥呢？那就叫它“以太”计算吧。\n>“以太”是古希腊人用来泛指云层之上，比云还高的青天。它同时也曾经被认为是光传播的介质，一直到近现代。这么一叫，是不是比云计算不知道高到哪里去了 ：）\n\n以太坊创始人Vitalik Buterin把以太坊称为“世界的（超级）计算机”。\n>最近爆红的加密猫CryptoKitties就是基于以太坊的一个去中心化的应用，由于基于以太坊的数据不可更改，不会因为公司倒闭，或者程序员离开而消失，它也带来了很多新的思考\n\n__简单的总结一下，经过这仅仅几年的发展，我们有了一种不需要特定组织来运营软件服务的方法。这种服务就被称为去中心化的应用，它们发放它们自己的加密资产来鼓励参与的节点们贡献资源。不管是数据处理，存储，计算，凡是这项服务可能需要用到的资源。__\n\n我想让大家停下来深呼吸一下。因为这简直是__奇迹__。你想想，这个模型里，只需要互联网，一些公开的规则，和一种新的资产，我们就可以创造一个可以__自我分配资源来为用户提供服务的网络__。\n\n有很多很多的人认为这是将来所有软件服务的模型，也就是说它有可能会颠覆著名的硅谷四大公司FANG（指脸书，亚马逊，奈飞，谷歌公司，同时也泛指其他硅谷大公司们）还有各种的风险投资基金。\n\n但是我并不是他们中的一员。因为这里有一个问题……\n\n___\n\n<center>～关于去中心化应用优劣的分析，敬请期待第四章～</center>",
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