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      "body": "<html> <p><em><strong>The US central bank left interest rates unchanged at its latest monetary policy meeting in the past week.</strong></em></p> <p>However, solid economic growth combined with rising inflation is likely to keep the Fed on track for another two hikes this year even as President Donald Trump has ramped up criticism of its push to raise rates.</p> <p>Additional quarter-point increases in September and December would bring the US central bank’s key interest rate into a target range of 2.25% to 2.50%, and mark the ninth increase in the tightening cycle which began in December 2015.</p> <p><br></p> <p>https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdLwJeXd8a9aGAPkPuz43VBSVJTdBy6qkVFhAft4U6z1M/image.png</p> <p><strong>In contrast, the ECB has yet to raise rates since the end of the global financial crisis.</strong></p> <p>At its June 14 policy meeting, it pledged to hold down interest rates until past next summer and indeed it is quite possible that ECB President Mario Draghi will not have overseen a rate-hike by the time his eight-year term in office comes to an end at the end of October next year.</p> <p>It has been a good year overall for the dollar, so far.</p> <p>The current rally is three months old and, despite some clouds over the US growth outlook, the gains may have a bit further to go.</p> <p>Since mid-April, the dollar has risen nearly 6% against a basket of currencies, hurting emerging markets and inflicting losses on speculators who had bet that the currency would extend its 10% in 2017.</p> <p><code>Their bets paid off in the first quarter when the dollar tanked nearly 4%.</code></p> <p>But since then, signs of faltering growth elsewhere in the globe and then the trade war have pushed capital towards the US.</p> <p>Many currency analysts remain convinced the dollar has had its day, noting US economic growth is likely to have peaked.</p> <p>But most of those polled by Reuters in its most recent currency poll see the dollar’s allure lasting another six months.</p> <p>In early 2018, encouraging European data fostered a view of a synchronised economic recovery that could lead to global interest-rate rises.</p> <p><br></p> <p><strong>But that view has dissipated.</strong></p> <p>Indeed, the Bank of England played down rate-rise expectations in April and the eventual hike last Thursday is unlikely to be followed up with more moves anytime soon.</p> <p>That doesn’t bode well for sterling, especially with the whole uncertainty of Brexit hanging over its head.</p> <p>Protectionism may also be playing a role in boosting the dollar.</p> <p>The US, whose exports are worth 12% of its GDP, looks less vulnerable to a trade war than, say, Germany, which has an export-GDP ratio of around 45%.</p> <p>Support for the dollar has also come from the emerging market capital exodus.</p> <p>That said, a strong dollar does not fit in with President Trump’s plans to boost US exports and cut US trade deficits with its trading partners. We wouldn’t be surprised to see a stronger euro versus the dollar on a six-to-12 month view.</p> </html>",
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      "body": "<html> <p>https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmNthgbRW3yvrRb2CvR5gX3S4tXjYPbfiuM6WN6gafTdPH/image.png<br> </p> <p><br></p> <p><code><em>The entertainment provided by televised sporting events has a significant effect on crime in Chicago, reducing the number of violent, property and drug crime reports by as much as 25 percent during the hours of a given game, according to a study by the UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program. The study published in the Journal of Sports Economics in May.</em></code></p> <p><br></p> <p>While many research studies have focused on increased aggression as an after-effect of viewing violent video games, television or movies, relatively few have demonstrated whether televised sports can produce declines in crime. The clear reductions in crime demonstrated by the UC Davis study imply that some individuals end up watching sports instead of committing crimes, and that entertainment may be an important and under-utilized crime prevention strategy.</p> <p><br></p> <blockquote>While we don't know about idle hands, our article suggests that idle eyes are the devil's playground,' said Hannah Laqueur, assistant professor of emergency medicine at the University of California, Davis and a researcher with the UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program. 'Alternative leisure activities and entertainment can substitute for criminal activity, and the benefits may be substantial.</blockquote> <p><br></p> <p>The researchers found substantial and significant effects for most sporting events across all crime-type categories. Crime in Chicago during Bears Monday Night Football games was approximately 15 percent lower than when the Bears were not playing, with the reductions in crime driven almost entirely by winning games. Crime during the Super Bowl was approximately 25 percent lower, which amounts to roughly 60 fewer crimes. Violent and property crime was approximately 15 to 20 percent lower during the Super Bowl. The National Basketball Association (NBA) and Major League Baseball (MLB) games generated similar but smaller effects.</p> <p><br></p> <p>With the exception of a spike in violence after the Super Bowl likely resulting from drinking during the game, the researchers did not find related increases in crime in the hours or days immediately before or after a televised sports game.</p> <p><br></p> <p>The authors believe the reductions appear to represent foregone criminal opportunities and that whatever short-term aggression-inducing effects movies, television or video games have may be negligible in comparison to their diversionary power.</p> <p><br></p> <blockquote>'Perhaps if sporting events aired in the summer when reruns and second-rate programming is typically available, real crime savings could be generated,' Laqueur said.</blockquote> <p><br></p> <p>For the study the researchers compared crime reports from January 2001 through December 2013 from the Chicago Police Department's Citizen Law Enforcement Analysis Reporting System by the half hour when Chicago's major professional sports teams were playing to crime reports at the same time, day and month when the teams were not playing. They also did the same analysis for the Super Bowl, NBA Finals and World Series. Chicago's sports teams included the Bears (National Football League), White Sox and Cubs (MLB), and Bulls (NBA).</p> </html>",
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