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      "body": "<html>\n<p>&nbsp;I joined the derivatives structuring desk of a European investment bank straight out of university.</p>\n<p>I recall having to google search the term ‘derivatives’ the day before my interview.</p>\n<p>That pretty much sums up my degree of expertise on the subject at the time.</p>\n<p>At the end of a pretty grueling interview (which involved having someone come and interview me in Mandarin), I was offered a job.</p>\n<p>They asked me what I expected as a monthly salary.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>I told my interviewer and future boss what an intern friend of mine at UBS was earning.</p>\n<p>He offered me just under half that amount.</p>\n<p>I accepted.</p>\n<p>My first day was in August of 2004.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>There was no training program… no scheduled classes, presentations or anything like that.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>On that first day my boss put a stack of around a dozen financial textbooks on my desk and just said “learn those”.</p>\n<p>As an area of finance, derivatives are seriously technical. I however, was not.</p>\n<p>No matter. I persevered, and three months later, in November I structured and sold my first structured note.</p>\n<p>I remember drafting the product term sheet.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>I christened it a <strong>“Bermudan Callable Three Times Leveraged Inverse HIBOR in-arrears Resettable Step-up Snowball Note.”</strong></p>\n<p>No, I’m not kidding…The notional value of the note was HKD100mn (around US$13mn), and we booked around EUR100k of profit.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>It was a relatively short-term note, hence the low profitability.</p>\n<p>But it was my first trade so I was happy. My boss ceremoniously cut my tie off below the knot when the trade was done.</p>\n<p>I still have the tie… or what’s left of it. It’s hideous. In retrospect my boss did me a favour.</p>\n<p>&nbsp;I won’t go through how the structured note coupon was calculated… <strong>but the only thing you need to know is that if Hong Kong interest rates rose, the note holder would be screwed.</strong></p>\n<p>You can probably guess what happened next (see chart below).&nbsp;</p>\n<p><img src=\"http://churchousepublishing.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/HIBOR-HKD-Interest-Rate.png\" width=\"638\" height=\"472\"/></p>\n<p>&nbsp;Okay, so that one didn’t <em>quite</em> work out as expected but live and learn…&nbsp;</p>\n<p>(The client did. As far as I know they never did another structured note with us. Although I should point out they didn’t <em>lose</em> any of their principal).</p>\n<p>The thing is, even if rates had stayed low we’d probably call back the note after three months.</p>\n<p>In that event the client would get a nice coupon for three months and then his money back (which he would now have to reinvest in a lower interest rate environment).</p>\n<p>You get the picture… either way, perhaps there were better ways the capital could have been put to work…I went on to spend nearly 9 years on derivatives desks at investment banks (I got better!).</p>\n<p>Anyway, I was reminded of this story recently when I read an article on Bloomberg entitled “Brexit Blows Up Currency Derivatives Sold to U.K. Businesses”.</p>\n<p>The article describes how an increasing number of U.K. firms are facing massive losses after entering into leveraged derivative transactions to “hedge” their foreign exchange exposures following a sharp post-Brexit decline in the British pound.</p>\n<p>The article states: “The derivatives subject to misselling claims have names like “seagull” and “two-times leveraged accelerated knock-out, knock-in forward.”</p>\n<p>To many, this sounds like complete gibberish, but the story is a wearily familiar one by now…And it brings me to some very simple rules I learned in my time on the structuring desks which I want to share with you now.&nbsp;</p>\n<p><strong>Beware of any derivative product with more than one adjective in its name.</strong></p>\n<p>I mean, in all honesty a “two-times leveraged accelerated knock-out, knock-in forward” is unlikely to be a ‘hedge’ against anything.</p>\n<p>If it sounds ridiculous, it probably is.</p>\n<p><strong>Complexity = Profitability… for the banks and brokers.</strong></p>\n<p>This should be pretty straightforward.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>The less a client understands about what he’s buying, the more money you can make.</p>\n<p>Of course, the fine print always has the disclaimer that the client knows all the risks etc…But unless you have the pricing model yourself (which, let’s face it, small businesses aren’t going to have), then you really don’t have any idea what you’re letting yourself in for.</p>\n<p><strong>Complex Structured Derivative Products don’t get bought… they get SOLD.</strong></p>\n<p>Believe it or not, there are relatively few corporate treasurers who wake up on any given morning with an urge to buy a “Bermudan Callable Three Times Leveraged Inverse HIBOR in-arrears Resettable Step-up Snowball Note.”</p>\n<p>Likewise for your average retail or high net worth individual.</p>\n<p>They get ‘sold’ to you because they are profitable for the seller!</p>\n<p><strong>Don’t confuse “hedging” with “speculating”.</strong></p>\n<p>The entire purpose of a hedge is to offset any potential gains or losses you might incur in another position.It’s not hard! It should be straightforward.</p>\n<p>Done correctly, hedging provides <em>certainty</em> and <em>reduces</em> risk.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>&nbsp;<strong>If you ‘hedge your bets’ and end up with more risk than when you started… chances are you’re not doing it right.</strong></p>\n<p>An example.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>If you know you are going to receive Japanese yen and buy U.S. dollars in 6 months’ time, you can enter into a simple FX forward.</p>\n<p>This locks in your forward FX exchange rate and that’s it!&nbsp;</p>\n<p>You’re hedged!</p>\n<p>Now, over the next 6 months that FX forward contract can gain or lose in value depending on what happens to the currency pair, but it’s irrelevant!</p>\n<p>In 6 months’ time you receive your yen, buy the dollars and settle the forward contract.</p>\n<p>Regardless of what happens, net-net you’ve gotten the FX rate you knew you would.</p>\n<p>What’s more these kinds of ‘vanilla’ hedging products exist in every financial asset class…FX, equities, interest rates, commodities… and they are transparent and liquid.</p>\n<p>Which is why banks and brokers won’t be rushing to sell you these… because transparency isn’t a word they associate with profitability!</p>\n<p>Why sell an FX forward when you can sell a “two-times leveraged accelerated knock-out, knock-in forward”.</p>\n<p>The bottom line is this: <strong>the vast majority of individuals and companies have absolutely no business whatsoever in doing anything more than the most vanilla derivative products…</strong> if those.</p>\n<p>Maybe you sit on the board of a small business which is being sold these kinds of products… the kind of one the Bloomberg article talks about.</p>\n<p>Or perhaps you have some financial advisor trying to sell you some kind of structured product.</p>\n<p>My advice? Be warned!</p>\n<p>And good investing,&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Tama<br>\n&nbsp;</p>\n</html>",
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      "body": "It’s been a while since I brought my readers an example of one of my own personal car-crash investments!\n\nThis edition of My Top 5 Worst Investments doesn’t relate to any specific investment per se.\n\nI’m talking here about a broader type of deal that everyone will be tempted by at some time or another.\n\nI know with certainty, that for some of my readers, this edition of Peter’s Perspective will save them tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars…\n\n~\n\nTama and I often get approached by all sorts of people looking for investor dollars.\n\nIt could be venture capital (a new concept/idea from an entrepreneur or a small company looking for financing).\n\nOr it could be private equity (perhaps a more traditional business where you are buying into more mature companies).\n\nAt one end of the spectrum, we have the more modest business ambitions.\n\nMaybe it’s a food & beverage play, someone looking to import and distribute a product or service, a small tech startup, a new app… the list goes on.\n\n[A reminder here why you should never invest in F&B!]\n\nThese meeting requests typically come through friends, old acquaintances, former colleagues and the general grapevine.\n\nNormally you’re looking at an investment size of anywhere from US$25k to US$100k.\n\nAt the other end of the spectrum, we have the more ‘professional’ grade of private equity. It could be a Chinese factory, a European bioscience private equity fund, an appliance manufacturer… anything.\n\nIn these cases, the ticket size is larger (think US$100k to US$250k) and the opportunity is wrapped in a more standardized private equity vehicle.\n\nI’m pretty sure that in the past twelve months you’ve been approached by someone pitching you an opportunity somewhere in the spectrum described above.\n\n[Let me point out here that I have some experience with raising capital myself. I spent a lot of time raising money for the real estate hedge fund (since closed) that I set up in 2004. And I continue to spend a lot of time raising money for our local real estate private equity vehicle today.]\n\nNow, what I’m about to say will make me highly unpopular to many people… and I could be shooting myself in the foot as well, but let me be clear:\n\nMost individuals have absolutely no business whatsoever ‘investing’ in either of these types of private enterprises – either the small deal, or the larger traditional private equity deal.\n\nI’m absolutely serious. And here’s why.\n\nImagine your total personal wealth asset allocation pyramid.\n\nAt the bottom of the pyramid you have things like cash, savings accounts, vanilla life insurance… money market accounts.\n\nLow risk. Low volatility. Your foundation.\n\nMoving up you have fixed income… bonds, maybe some preferred stock.\n\nLow-ish risk. Income.\n\n[I’d also put real estate (that you live in) in this category as well.]\n\nHigher up the pyramid come your big blue chip stocks… and gradually moving to emerging markets, currencies and smaller cap equities… and finally things like options, maybe futures.\n\nOur allocations of wealth to each part gets smaller as we move up the pyramid.\n\nAnd right at the very top… in the ‘highest risk with lowest liquidity’ category… you have venture capital and private equity.\n\nNow, I think you know that part of the pyramid should have your lowest overall allocation!\n\nDeep down it makes total sense to you.\n\nI asked a Financial Advisor friend of mine, Todd Pallett at EXS Capital, what he recommends as an allocation to this part of your pyramid.\n\n“You should limit your VC or PE investments to no more than 5% of your net worth at a maximum.\nThat means if you’re going to write a fifty thousand dollar cheque, you shouldn’t have anything less than a million bucks in net worth.\nIf it goes to the moon then great, you might wish you did more!\nBut in my years of experience with clients, it’s much more likely it won’t. And you’ll be very happy you kept a sensible risk limit.”\nWhen you stop and think about it for a moment, just take a look at what characterizes these kinds of private capital investments.\n\nThey’re Totally Illiquid\n\nIf you sign a US$50k or US$100k cheque, you better believe you’re not going to see that money again any time soon.\n\nIt will be YEARS before there’s any kind of exit for you. That cash is tied up.\n\nUnless the company IPOs or gets bought out, then you’re stuck. You might book some paper profits if there are later funding rounds at higher valuations.\n\nBut rest assured, you need to be willing to sit, watch and wait.\n\nOpportunity Cost\n\nTake it from Warren Buffet. Cash is King. And he keeps plenty of it on hand.\n\nWe keep a lot of cash on hand “so that we can both withstand unprecedented losses and…quickly seize acquisition or investment opportunities”\nIf too much of your wealth is tied up in illiquid investments, then you can’t move quickly when the really great opportunities come along.\n\nAs they say, when “there’s blood on the streets” it’s time to buy… (or sell mops).\n\nSay No to the “FOMO”\n\nLet me guess, the opportunity sounds great. It’s exciting. All your friends are all piling in.\n\nYou get a little adrenalin rush thinking about how you’re going to spend your newfound riches…\n\nYou DO NOT want to be that one guy who didn’t buy the winning lottery ticket. The guy who missed out on the big score.\n\nHow will you live with yourself if you’re still sat behind your desk while your buddies are sitting on their yachts sipping Mai Tais?\n\nPlease, ignore the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO).\n\nWe all get it… myself included. But it’s a terrible, terrible reason to invest.\n\nYour Odds Are, By All Accounts, Terrible\n\nThe media loves stories about the folks who bought in to Twitter or Facebook in the early days. The investment buccaneers who struck gold…\n\nBut rest assured, for every unicorn, there are at least 99 donkeys who end up at the knackers yard…\n\nFor the vast majority of us, it ain’t gonna happen.\n\nDon’t get me wrong, your winning numbers might come up… but that doesn’t make buying a lottery ticket the right idea.\n\nI could go on and on… the lack of control, corporate governance issues, transparency…\n\nThe point I’m trying to make here is this: there IS a place in your portfolio for these kinds of investments, but the biggest single mistake I see people making is allocating way too much money towards them.\n\nI know plenty of people who don’t own a stock, or a bond, or even real estate… yet they’ve put low to mid six-figures into venture capital and private equity!\n\nIt’s INSANE.\n\nRemember: these investments are the LAST thing you look at, not the FIRST!\n\nGet everything else in place to begin with.\n\nMake sure your pyramid is properly structured.\n\nThen, and only then, dive into the illiquid stuff… and get your allocation right.\n\nAnd when it comes to these investments, there’s a long list of things you need to check off before you hand over a single dollar.\n\nI’ll share my check-list with you another time.\n\nI’ve had plenty of painful experiences and hopefully sharing my mistakes will help you avoid making the same ones.\n\nUntil then,\n\nGood investing,\nPeter",
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