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      "permlink": "180304-12-30-pm",
      "title": "180304 12:30 pm"
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      "body": "http://www.drbitcoin.net/dr.php?freq=10m\n\nhttps://www.coinhills.com/ko/market/exchange/rank-for/btc/\n\nhttps://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage\n\n\n점유율\n==============================\n\nhttps://ethereumclassic.github.io/\n\nhttps://gastracker.io/\n\n\n이클\n==============================",
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      "body": "하방이탈후 쌍봉 조정중",
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      "author": "choichoistory",
      "body": "거창하게 써있지만 그냥 위의것은 매수가 강해서 기존봉보다 우측봉이 올라갔으니, 하방갈때 저점을 보호할 \"확률\"이 높다, 아래꺼는 매도세가 강해서 기존봉보다 우측봉이 내려갔으니 , 하방갈때 저점을 깨고 조금 이탈할 확률이 높다. 다만, 낙폭이 크기때문에 크게 이탈하지는 않을것이다. \n이것으로 이해하시면 편하실꺼에요",
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      "author": "travelkorea",
      "body": "우와 이런식으로 분석하는 것은 정말 어렵네요.",
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      "body": "그동안의 분석을 통한 뇌피셜 시나리오 2가지\n(기본적으로 7k는 안간다고 보는 관점)\n\n1.\n세력은 현재 9500-11000을 노 트레이드 존으로 보고있는것으로 보고\n비트코인으로 주로 거래를 하며, 그에 대한 헷지용으로 이더리움을 사용하고있다\n업비트기준이아닌, 빗썸, 비트플라이어 등 비트거래량이 많은 각국가의 코인종류가 많지않은 거래소는\n굳이 테더나, 원화 등으로 헷지를 모두 하기보다는 이더리움으로 헷지를 하는것을로 보인다 . \n\n대응 : 비트코인의 큰조정시 이더리움의 움직임을 주의 깊게 볼 필요가있다 \n\n\n2. \n9000이나 많으면 8800까지 조정을 한번주고 가든, \n그냥 여기서 올리고 3/18-20 사이에 있는 g20 이슈 전에 공포분위기를 조정해 \n대파동 3파동을 달리다 4파동 조정을 주는 시나리오를 생각해보고있다\n\n이때 미국에서 올해 계속 이야기하고있는 금리인상 이슈가 터지게 된다면 , 이 조정의 편은 커질것이라 본다.\n\n20일 이후에는 \"특별한 악재는없었다\" 정도로 지나면서 악재의 해소로 반등이 다소 큰폭으로 올것으로 보인다\n추후 행보는 그때 예측해도 늦지않는다 본다.\n\n다만 각해마다 4,5,6월에는 상승장이면서 6월에 최고점을 찍었던것으로 유추해볼때 그때부터는 \n다시 회복장(상승장)이 되지않을까 본다\n\n3. 나스닥과 코인이 과연 디커플링일까?\n\n기본적으로는 어떤 특별한 연관관계를 \"항상\" 찾기는 애매하다고 본다.\n\n안전자산(은행, 채권) vs 비안전 고수익위험자산 (주식)\n의 중간 위치에 코인의 위치가 있다고 보고있다. \n\n작년말, 올해초에 걸친 금융시장 전체의 충격때는 서로 시장간 위험의 분산이 적게 되지만\n\n시장 각자의 충격 (보통의 경우) 일떄는 은행, 채권으로 가기전에 일단 비트코인과 이더리움으로 새롭게 등장한\n고수익 위험자산이면서 은행권으로 가는것보다 이익이 날수있는 곳으로도 \"분산\" 투자됨으로 (위험자산중의 헷지용) 나스닥의 단기 하락은 코인의 단기 상승을 가져올수있다고 본다.\n\n다만, 이러한 가정은 \"코인판이 회복세 또는 조정(회복강세- 조정장의 끝물같은 3월의 현재) 후반\" 일때\n더 잘 작용한다고 볼수있다.\n\n일률적으로 이러한 관점을 적용하는 것은 위험하다고 본다. \n\n결론 : 주식과 대체재다 (디커플링된다) 라고 명확히 말할순없지만 , 지금처럼 한번의 조정후면 파동상 3파가 나올만한 시점 같이 상승기조를 보이고있는상황에선 나스닥 등의 단기 하락이 코인판의 단기 상승에 도움을 준다고 보고있다.\n\n전체적 대응 : \n비트코인의 위치가 노트레이딩 존에 있으면서, \n요즘 한국의 분위기상 알트코인이나 코인보다는 마진이 하락장에서 자신의 손해를 복구하는데 더 낫다는 인식과 \n일본에서 마진과 관련한 거래소 규제가 이제 막 공지가 나오는 수준일때 마진의 꿀을 빨기위해 \n\n\"코인의 노트레이딩존 = 큰박스 횡보장 \" 일때 , 비트코인 마진거래 (고위험) \n실제로 트레이딩도 \"비트코인과 이더리움\" 위주로 하는것이 낫다고 본다.\n\n애매한 존에서 지금까지 많이 볼수없었던 \"플레그패턴 후에 급등, 급락\" 이 20번에 가깝게 몇일쨰 반복되고 있는\n현상역시 이러한 부분이 영향을 끼치고 있다고본다 .",
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