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      "body": "The crypto market is rising faster than anyone could reasonably expect. My strategy remains the same:\n\n1. **Keep the majority of holdings in BTC and ETH**. I'm marginally more bullish on ETH than BTC, but believe any investment in ETH should be hedged with ETC\n\n2. **Buy 20% or greater dips in both**\n\n3. **Continue to diversify** (I currently hold 35 cryptoassets). There is no formula to my approach but factors I consider meaningful include community strength & quality, existing & prospective use cases, technological differentiation, and liquidity\n\nIf/when BTC hits $3000 USD, I'll take more money off the table. Other times I sold meaningful chunks: ~$1200 and $2000.\n\nMay's monthly performance versus benchmarks is coming in the next newsletter.\n\nThese assets are more than 1% of my portfolio. In descending order:\n\n* BTC\n* ETH\n* XEM\n* DASH\n* XMR\n* PEPECASH\n* BTS\n* XRP\n* XCP\n* ETC\n\nSome charts:\n\nGreat conceptual frame for Bitcoin: logically centralized (a single shared ledger) and organizationally decentralized (independent-ish miners and nodes). [Source](http://continuations.com/post/105272022635/bitcoin-clarifying-the-foundational-innovation-of):\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmVp97gUjNrExhAQ1WutjEQibh5yZzRrt8cbjdMuATYisd/organization-and-logic.png)\n​\nFrom a Trace Mayer podcast, the best predictor of Bitcoin's price is the 200-day moving average of transaction fees. If still true, seems bullish. [Chart source](https://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees-usd?timespan=360days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=200&show_header=true&scale=0&address=):\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmf5wRkNKpcYKknFR2z7aZmZWBFxieVeW6hM7dguA7zDZQ/image.png)\n​\n\nCrypto Twitter is great. Some of my favorite pundits:\n\n* https://twitter.com/cnLedger - Bitcoin in China, Mandarin sources\n* https://twitter.com/CollinCrypto - respected day trader's commentary\n* https://twitter.com/jimmysong - insider who is balanced and thoughtful about ecosystem\n* https://twitter.com/AriDavidPaul - UChicago endowment PM who's very active in crypto\n\nThanks for reading. Hit reply if you wanna chat. Happy investing!\n\n-Kevin ([@kgao](http://www.twitter.com/kgao))",
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      "body": "Things just get crazier, don't they? Here's my April performance against benchmarks:\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmTZ7KLXc74AkwojzogtXkQ85NctSKbHYaaU4cCBjamVSw/image.png)\n​\nBitcoin had a great month, but ETH, DASH, and XEM in particular did better, which led to continued outperformance. But crypto investing really is a day to day kinda thing.\n\nCurrently these assets are more than 1% of my portfolio:\n* BTC: 50%\n* ETH: 19%\n* XEM: 11%\n* DASH: 3%\n* ZCL: 3%\n* PEPECASH: 2%\n* XMR: 2%\n* XRP: 1%\n* BTS: 1%\n\nI like to review my [investment theses](http://www.breakingbitcoin.com/portfolio/cryptocurrency-investment-theses/) and see what needs an update. The success of Ripple is the biggest outlier. It's currently #2 on CMC and has gone up 10x in just the last month. Whether a pump or playing catchup, XRP's performance makes me question two price drivers I used to deem important:\n\n**1. Token supply mechanics** (percent of supply issued, predictability of the issuance rate, current and expected inflation)\n\n**2. Degree of decentralization** (with respect to the team, to its sources of funding, to its transparency in everything from source code to operations). Perhaps in these times of continued Bitcoin scaling uncertainty, the market is moving to centralized assets (in addition to XRP, other examples include XEM, DASH, assets like FACTOM and STEEM)\n\nThen again the Ripple bubble could soon burst and upend these observations.\n\nRecommended reads:\n* My Medium essay on how Pepe the frog became a very interesting cryptocurrency and trading card community [[link](https://medium.com/@kgao/pepecash-101-how-a-frog-meme-became-a-cryptocurrency-for-fun-and-prophet-192f604d08c7)] \n* Token sales / ICOs and their pros and cons [[link](https://medium.com/@stefanobernardi/the-first-real-revolution-in-venture-capital-crypto-tokens-937f7ab53d21)]\n* The Siacoin team explains why the cryptocurrency market cap indicator is misleading [[link](https://blog.sia.tech/want-to-deflate-the-token-bubble-fix-the-market-cap-indicator-d50f7f1e1ec4)]. Jimmy Song shares a related perspective on Bitcoin's dominance index [[link](https://medium.com/@jimmysong/why-the-bitcoin-dominance-index-is-deceiving-80ae324ee2ac)]\n* One person's thoughtful and balanced story of how they got into cryptocurrency investing and lessons learned [[link](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/6acolz/cryptocurrencies_and_the_circle_of_competence/?st=J2KGUK17&sh=cd94cc11)]\nThanks for reading!\n\nKevin ([@kgao](http://www.twitter.com/kgao))\n​\n*3 branches of BTC \"governance\":\n--Full Nodes (can veto miners & devs)\n--Miners (can veto devs)\n--Devs (can help others bypass some vetoes)\n-Jameson Lopp (@lopp)*",
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      "body": "Here's an essay [on Medium](https://medium.com/@kgao/pepecash-101-how-a-frog-meme-became-a-cryptocurrency-for-fun-and-prophet-192f604d08c7) that I recently wrote which covers the evolution of Pepe the Frog into a form of limited digital art (Rare Pepes) that can be bought and sold and traded, all powered by a blockchain currency called Pepecash.\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmamtm7j9DVhVGvmmWfGfhREvrXAeLknyfSue3kc8THiEt/image.png)\n\nFeels good folks!",
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      "author": "breakingbitcoin",
      "body": "@@ -220,16 +220,17 @@\n theses/)\n+)\n  from ti\n",
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      "body": "Hi everyone, I have been a cryptocurrency and cryptoassets investor since 2013. I send a regular newsletter describing my crypto portfolio every few weeks. This is the 4th one, and while I usually publish them on [my blog](http://www.breakingbitcoin.com), I wanted to try Steemit because it's an interesting product and I hold a small number of STEEM tokens.\n\n**As of early May, the following assets represent >1% of my current portfolio:**\n\n* Bitcoin BTC: 57%\n* Ethereum ETH: 23%\n* NEM XEM: 6%\n* Dash DASH: 4%\n* ZClassic ZCL: 1%\n* Pepecash PEPECASH: 1%\n* Monero XMR: 1%\n\nThese assets are sub-1%: Litecoin LTC, Ethereum Classic ETC, Zcash ZEC, Decred DCR, Emercoin EMC, Counterparty XCP, Aeon AEON, Storjcoin SJCX, Ripple XRP, and Bitshares BTS.\n\nA few weeks ago I sent a summary of [my working cryptocurrency investment theses](http://www.breakingbitcoin.com/portfolio/cryptocurrency-investment-theses/). Thanks to those who gave feedback and asked questions and challenged my thinking!\n\nThe crypto market is doing very well. My cautious prediction was $100B USD total market cap by 2020 but **we may see that before this year is over!** Regardless of whether or not this constitutes a \"bubble\", I think the fundamentals of crypto are stronger than ever. Innovation. Experimentation. Talent. Growth in multiple use cases. Software is eating the world, and crypto is eating money. \n\nMy investment strategy is currently a mix of:\n\n1. **Hold big positions in the leading assets with the strongest fundamentals** - for example, BTC and ETH. My target is probably closer to 50% BTC instead of the 57% today\n\n2. **Take sizable \"flyer\" bets on interesting use cases** that could see breakout price growth in the next 3-6 months - for example, ZCL and Pepecash (I'm writing a separate long essay on Pepecash to clarify my thinking and explain what the hell it's all about, but it's perhaps the only asset I actually enjoy following, as opposed to most of the rest in which greed now predominates)\n\n3. **Diversify into different categories of coins and assets** because long-term, we don't know who will win and what use cases will prove popular - Dash for its marketing and self-funding and potential to cross the chasm, NEM for its Asia presence and hybrid of private + public chains and quietly competent development team\n\nI still need to calculate my April returns versus benchmarks and will share that when it's ready.\n\nTwo general interest links for you to read:\n\n1. [The Cambridge cryptocurrency study](https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/alternative-finance/downloads/2017-global-cryptocurrency-benchmarking-study.pdf)\n\n2. [Smith and Crown on the proliferation of tokens (aka ICOs) and how to categorize them](https://www.smithandcrown.com/token-rights/)\n\n_\"We have the tech of 93 combined with the hype of 99.\" - Sergej Kotliar_\n\nNone of the above should be considered investment advice and approach this whole market with two giant doses of caution and skepticism.\n\nCheers,\n\nKevin ([@kgao](http://www.twitter.com/kgao))",
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