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      "author": "steemitboard",
      "permlink": "steemitboard-notify-brandonadams-20190620t164220000z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "Congratulations @brandonadams! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@brandonadams/birthday2.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 2 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@brandonadams) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=brandonadams)_</sub>\n\n\n**Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:**\n<table><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/the-steem-community-has-lost-an-epic-member-farewell-woflhart\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQWnM36SWCPGn98nY83M1ArgweMz5fnovQEp2E4FiDdug/Wolfhart_header.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/the-steem-community-has-lost-an-epic-member-farewell-woflhart\">The Steem community has lost an epic member! Farewell @woflhart!</a></td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemtoolbar/@steemitboard/steemtoolbar-update-display-bug-fixed\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/http://i.cubeupload.com/7CiQEO.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemtoolbar/@steemitboard/steemtoolbar-update-display-bug-fixed\">SteemitBoard - Witness Update</a></td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steem/@steemitboard/do-not-miss-the-coming-rocky-mountain-steem-meetup-and-get-a-new-community-badge\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUphCGZFWgt6bJ1XTtunV7esnwy6bxnGqcLcHAV3NEqnQ/meetup-rocky-mountain.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steem/@steemitboard/do-not-miss-the-coming-rocky-mountain-steem-meetup-and-get-a-new-community-badge\">Do not miss the coming Rocky Mountain Steem Meetup and get a new community badge!</a></td></tr></table>\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "permlink": "re-brandonadams-personal-organization-for-degenerates-overcoming-tilt-and-regret-20170710t203147413z",
      "title": "",
      "body": "thats a good one follow @fauxfinish",
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      "body": "wow nice post! Keep on doing them in the future. following you, hope you check out my account, too! :)",
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      "body": "This post I can relate to.    I think understanding your edge objectively is a phenomenal piece of advice,  which is why I no longer trade the stock market or currency market.    That is a tough fish tank.     With the way poker is trending,  the games getting tougher,  sites going down,  it is hard to be confident in the sustainability of it as a profession.  Time to look to new forms of income.",
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      "body": "hi. I had included your post in this compilation to share with more people 😃\n\n[SteemBookLoversMag, 25 June 2017](https://steemit.com/books/@ygern/steembookloversmag-25-june-2017)",
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      "body": "Here is a comment one of my buddies left me on skype.   He needs to join Steemit!\n\nObviously Brandon is extraordinarily bright\nbut I think he makes the same mistake that I have seen other bitcoin skeptics make\nGovernment is not a monolithic entity\nthere are many different governments around the world, each with different policy goals\nIt seems clear to me that bitcoin is going to get several more years of uninterrupted growth\nPoliticians aren't smart enough to see what Brandon outlines coming\nBitcoin is going to be quite large by the time the \"Sea of Red\" problem becomes apparent\nIt seems likely to me that entire countries, like Venezuela perhaps, will have adopted bitcoin wholesale by 2025, perhaps to the point of being their national currency\nI think bitcoin has serious geopolitical significance at this point, and China may very well go all-in on bitcoin if the US tries to ban it. Also, it seems very likely that public blockchains will have a huge array of important non-monetary economic functions by 2025\nThe US government may not be able to throw the baby out with the bathwater\nFinally, the global underground is enormous, and will grow larger if governments grow too rapacious while trying to fix the \"Sea of Red\" problem\nCrypto is CLEARLY going to be the reserve currency of that market",
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      "title": "Review: Grave New World: The End of Globalization, The Return of History Stephen D. King",
      "body": "Rating: 8.5/10\n\nEveryone should buy this book solely to read Chapter 10, “Debasing the Coinage”, p190-212.  This chapter alone is easily worth full retail, and this is not surprising, as this is the area we would expect Stephen King to know best.  \n\nKing makes a compelling case in this chapter that modern monetary interventions have devolved into a modern form of Beggar-Thy-Neighbor.  \n\nHe notes that, “although stock markets made impressive gains in the years after the financial crisis, capital spending in the developed world remained largely moribund.  Instead, the most important channel became the exchange rate.” \n\nHe continues, “In a world in which most economies are weak simultaneously, however, printing money to drive the exchange rate lower risks becoming a zero-sum game: one country’s competitive gain is another’s competitive loss; one country’s inflationary increase is another’s deflationary problem.  And so it has proved.” Later: “Put another way, monetary policy has – unwittingly – become a mechanism by which countries wage financial warfare.” \n\nChapter 10, overall, is masterful, ending with the simple but powerful observation that, “In the event of another recession, central banks will have no option but to do more in the way of quantitative easing: knowing this, financial asset values will remain inflated, regardless of underlying economic performance.  Under these conditions, listed companies will continue to gain access to financial capital on favorable terms, whether or not that capital is deployed wisely… Overall, the result is likely to be persistent misallocation of capital and thus a sustained period of productivity underperformance.” \n\nAs for the rest of the book, I’d say… it depends.  For me, it comes down to a philosophical argument about the modern book.  I believe that much of the reason people valued books throughout history is that books summarized and synthesized, in one place, knowledge about a particular topic.   It’s no longer clear that this function of books is valuable.  People can get, on the Internet, any information they want, precisely tailored to their interests and backgrounds, in an instant and for free.  So my criticism of the rest of the book is that while there is some strong original content there, a bit too much of it for my taste consists of a rehash of well-known 20th Century historical events.",
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      "title": "Review: The Complacent Class by Tyler Cohen",
      "body": "Rating: 9/10\n\n<center>This is the first of a series of book reviews I hope to host on this blog.  I’ll strive to be fierce and unbiased in general, though in this case I’ll disclaim that I once had a very Complacent Class-like three Michelin star meal with Tyler Cohen and I liked him very much.  \n\t\nHis book is one-third cultural history and observation (think David Brooks’ Bobos in Paradise), one-third data analysis on American class stratification (think Charles Murray’s Coming Apart), and one-third blunt assessment of America’s macroeconomic outlook (in which he says something similar to what I said yesterday, in assessing the outlook: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@brandonadams/bitcoin-macroeconomics). \n\nThe piece that Cohen’s book most reminded me of was a blog post, the most important post I have read in the past five years.  This was a post by @interfluidity called “Tradeoffs Between Inequality, Productivity, and Employment.” http://www.interfluidity.com/v2/3487.html\n\tIt’s hard to overstate in my mind exactly how good this post is, and a summary won’t do it justice.   Here are some key excerpts:\n\n>Wealth is about insurance much more than it is about consumption. As consumers, our requirements are limited. But the curve balls the universe might throw at us are infinite. If you are very wealthy, there is real value in purchasing yet another apartment in yet another country through yet another hopefully-but-not-certainly-trustworthy native intermediary. There is value in squirreling funds away in yet another undocumented account, and not just from avoiding taxes. Revolutions, expropriations, pogroms, these things do happen. These are real risks. Even putting aside such dramatic events, the greater the level of consumption to which you have grown accustomed, the greater the threat of reversion to the mean, unless you plan and squirrel very carefully. Extreme levels of consumption are either the tip of an iceberg or a transient condition. Most of what it means to be wealthy is having insured yourself well.\n…\n\tIn “middle class” societies, wealth is widely distributed and most peoples’ consumption desires are not nearly sated. We constantly trade-off a potential loss of insurance against a gain from consumption, and consumption often wins because we have important, unsatisfied wants. So we employ one another to provide the goods and services we wish to consume. This leads to “full employment” — however many we are, we find ways to please our peers, for which they pay us. They in turn please us for pay. There is a circular flow of claims, accompanied by real activity we call “production”.\nIn economically polarized societies, this dynamic breaks down. The very wealthy don’t employ everybody, because the >marginal consumption value of a new hire falls below the insurance value of retaining wealth.\n\n\t\nCohen’s book, in my opinion, does as good a job as any book I have read in spelling out exactly how the problems Waldman details manifest themselves in contemporary American society.   The cultural story Cohen tells is one where a large segment of the elite (in Waldman’s context, those seeking additions to their wealth for insurance purposes) understand that the game as it’s being played today (manufactured asset price inflations, at a time when the distribution of assets is highly unequal) is highly inequitable and likely to end poorly, but, far from trying to rectify the situation, they do everything in their power to try to cement the status quo. Cohen has some great material in this area.  He notes, echoing David Graeber, that “The complacent class very often has explicit bureaucratization on its side… Bureaucracy, whatever its other goals may be, is very much on the side of the complacent class.”\n\nThe problems that pile up as this process continues to unfold used to have narratives associated with them that implied that things were under control and problems would soon be addressed.  But increasingly this narrative is being discarded and it’s a raw power game.  Cohen describes a dig-in-the-heels mentality.  On page 165: “So we pile up more and more issues of this kind, namely ones that don’t require resolution right now.  The end result is likely to be that we lose our capacity to solve them at all, whether today, tomorrow, or any other time in the future.”  And, later, “as the years pass, it seems increasingly obvious that the social and economic stagnation of our times is more than just a temporary blip; instead, that stagnation reflects deeply rooted structural forces that will be not easy to undo by mere marginal reforms.\"",
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      "title": "Personal Organization for Degenerates: Gratuitous Risk without Edge can be Ruinous",
      "body": "<center>At a poker table once, someone I respect said, “Everyone I know who’s ever bet on props has gone broke at some point.” I puzzled over this, because a prop bet, in poker terminology, is a bet on something where the odds are fair, such that there is no expected edge for either player. An example would be if players bet even odds on whether the flop would have more black cards or red cards. I realized that, strangely, my friend’s observation was probably right; betting on props is a potentially catastrophic decision, even though the expected financial loss is zero.\nThe reason for this is subtle and is beyond the scope of this book. There is a class of mathematical models called Risk of Ruin that examines the probability of going broke as a function of starting bankroll, betting edge, bet sizing, and number of bets. A good introduction to these models is provided in Bill Chen and Jerrod Ankenman’s book The Mathematics of Poker…\n… My advice for young people is: Avoid spreading your tentacles too far; pick one thing to specialize in and do it well; only branch out if you demonstrate sustained success and have a strong urge to try something new; and when you are not engaging in the one thing you do well, you should relax, because our connected world, while thrilling, is also demanding and exhausting. Remember that sitting out has strategic value—you get to learn without cost or risk.\nIn a highly competitive global world, you might reasonably expect to have a small edge on your competition when it comes to your specialty. However, it is also reasonable to expect that you are at a large negative disadvantage if you venture into new fields. A poker player might expect to earn one big blind per 100 hands in the game he specializes in, but lose ten big blinds per 100 hands in a game that’s relatively new for him. This is the danger of dilettantism; it might take you ten hours doing the thing you’re good at to overcome the losses from one hour spent doing the thing you’re bad at.\nThink of sports gambling. Suppose you’ve been watching soccer your whole life and are an astute soccer handicapper who can bet profitably against sports books. The information embedded in market prices is so good that, if you are right about your abilities, your best expectation after paying juice is to make a small profit of perhaps 1 percent on every dollar bet. But if you are wrong about your abilities, and in fact have only average knowledge (this is likely the case), you are lighting your money on fire, losing perhaps 4–5 percent of every dollar bet…<center/>\n___\nWant to read more? Check out my new book *Personal Organization for Degenerates*.\nbrandonadams.co/pofd_landing",
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      "body": "I'm glad you're receptive to what I'm saying. I agree, governments probably will do that, and in fact they already have - Charlie Shrem, Ross Ulbricht, and going back, Bernard Von Nothaus for Liberty Dollars.\n\nThis definitely slows people down in digital currency, but it's unlikely to stop them. Many entrepreneurs will move to countries where there aren't relevant laws, or where the laws aren't likely to be enforced (sometimes you just gotta pay off the right people).\n\nThe US and other developed nations - especially English-speaking nations - tend to be the ones with the strictest financial regulations. (Well, not against big banks, but against new companies.) In these countries, the government is likely to get in the way a lot, and inhibit adoption. \n\nAgain, it's similar to prosecutions with file sharing. They prosecuted 12 year old girls for downloading 10,000 mp3s, and maybe a few people got scared... People in the US particularly don't like downloading without paying. But in literally almost every other country, people do it without fear of punishment. File sharing has been inhibited because of these prosecutions, but it certainly hasn't stopped. It's the same with digital currency.\n\nBeyond that, one of the biggest fintech players right now is Citibank. Citibank has several fintech departments, one for consumers, one for business, and so on. It's possible that Citibank's fintech departments will be a target for prosecution, but I think you'll agree it's unlikely.",
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      "body": "Churdtzu, Thank you for this reply!  I think the form a government crackdown would take would probably be selective prosecutions.  Govmts could simply start prosecuting large numbers of people involved in alt currency for crimes such as tax evasion.   This is not to say that alt currency users are breaking the law more than others, it's just that every individual and business is subject to so many rules, and it's not uncommon for govmts to selectively enforce these rules towards particular ends.",
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      "body": "Phenomenal post keep them coming.  I have learned so much about myself playing poker full time from 2005-2014.    Tilt happens to everyone but creating an awareness of it and having the humility to act on that awareness is what kept me in the game for over a decade.",
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      "body": "@@ -158,16 +158,23 @@\n cies is \n+indeed \n extremel\n",
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      "author": "churdtzu",
      "permlink": "re-brandonadams-bitcoin-macroeconomics-20170621t044901116z",
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      "body": "Hi Brandon, I agree with you on a few things, but I disagree with your conclusions.\n\nThe incentive for governments to squash Bitcoin and other digital currencies is extremely strong. There's a common military formula to assess a threat...  Threat = Capability x Intent. We know it's likely that governments have intent to destroy digital currencies, but their level of capability isn't completely known.\n\nI did make the case in this piece: [Bitcoin Paranoid](http://theparadiseparadox.com/162), that governments are probably already attempting to infiltrate Bitcoin, using the weaknesses of the development team, perhaps paying them or threatening them. But crushing digital currency in general isn't so easy.\n\nThis idea of decentralised currency is already out in the open, so if one project such as Bitcoin fails, it's simple for another to take its place. Think of it like Internet file sharing. Napster was the first user-friendly system that offered this service, and when it was shut down there were Morpheus and Gnutella, and then they got shut down, and eventually we got BitTorrent, and governments are still trying to shut down torrent sites... They're not having a good time.\n\nNapster was quite unsophisticated compared to BitTorrent, with a high level of centralisation, making it easier to shut down. Digital and decentralised currency follows a similar path. There was e-gold, and Liberty Dollars, Electronic Liberty Dollars. But they were all too centralised, and they got shut down. Now Bitcoin has been going for about 9 years, and it's pretty obvious that it's not so easy to shut it down. Now we have Dash and other currencies with decentralised autonomous funding, that are even harder to kill.\n\nWhen you say \"It’s a battle the government can’t lose, and therefore they won’t lose it,\" you're assuming that they have the capability, and that's really not proven. The music industry can't stop file sharing, the movie industry... So how can you know that banks and governments will be able to stop an analogous technology?\n\n>The other case is that is that government doesn’t succeed in curtailing activity in alternative currency and it continues to expand in importance. In this case you’re also fucked, as governments will not be able to fund and sustain themselves.\n\nTo me, that doesn't sound like I'm fucked. Actually, that sounds good. Actually, that sounds like what Bitcoin was intended to do - to remove power from established power structures. [New organisations are already beginning to take their places.](https://bitnation.co/)\n\nHere is a quote from Timothy May's \"Crypto Anarchist's Manifesto\", written around 1988, long before Bitcoin came along:\n>Just as the technology of printing altered and reduced the power of medieval guilds and the social power structure, so too will cryptologic methods fundamentally alter the nature of corporations and of government interference in economic transactions. Combined with emerging information markets, crypto anarchy will create a liquid market for any and all material which can be put into words and pictures. And just as a seemingly minor invention like barbed wire made possible the fencing-off of vast ranches and farms, thus altering forever the concepts of land and property rights in the frontier West, so too will the seemingly minor discovery out of an arcane branch of mathematics come to be the wire clippers which dismantle the barbed wire around intellectual property.\n\nMy only criticism of what May wrote here is that he didn't go far enough.",
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      "permlink": "re-dangerfish-re-brandonadams-bitcoin-macroeconomics-20170621t034532456z",
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      "body": "Maybe these technologies are too efficient for governments.  A world of hyper-efficiency and rationality isn't really ideal for the survival of governments as we know them.",
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      "body": "Re- your last point, see my book Setting Sun for the empirics on this.  The US govmt is highly dependent on inflationary monetary policy as a method of funding itself; if alt currency largely took over, and inflation as a source of government funding was no longer an option, government finance would be in an impossible state.  On the spending side, the problem is that most expense goes to transfer programs, which are hard to change.  On the revenue side, the problem is that, despite trying many different tax regimes, some with tax rates much, much higher than today, the US government has been unable to raise much more than 20% of GDP as tax revenue.  Also, presumably, heavy prevalence of alt currency would take away the option of a wealth tax (which I feel is a reasonable option and one that will be increasingly debated).  \n\nPoints 1 and 2 don't change the fact that alt currency use is strongly against governments' interest.  Given that alt currency use is against the govmt interest, they will seek to squash it.  The mechanisms for doing this will tend to be random and unfair, but they can get it done in my opinion.",
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      "body": "Welcome to steem! You should check out some of GitHub markdown tutorials to make your posts look pretty. \n\nI really like seeing content like this! Keep it up.",
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      "body": "Hey Brandon, good to see you blogging on here and look forward to seeing a logical voice from outside the echo chamber I fear most of us live in.\n\nI don't have an economics background, so I am hesitant to respond, but I think there are a couple issues with your outlook of probable negative freeroll:\n1. Digital currency isn't necessarily betting on a collapse of governments and existing fiat currencies. It has many other use cases than just medium of exchange (decentralized file storage, computing power lending, smart contracts, store of value, etc), but even as one it has a single better use case of transferring money across borders than individual country currencies. It doesn't need to become the only medium of exchange to grow, and doesn't need to replace the financial system within any individual country.\n2. A global decentralized cryptocurrency with public transaction ledgers held everywhere is very resistant to government action. Digital goods are tough to control, global digital goods without a centralized point are near impossible.\n\nI don't really know how to address your point about governments being unable to fund and sustain themselves, but I think it is probably inaccurate; also in this case, the value of our cryptocurrencies (while they would be worth more than fiat) might be the least of our concerns.",
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      "body": "Nice first post.  This is a well thought out anti-bitcoin argument.  I am inclined to believe that this 'middle scenario' you mention where governments slowly fail and consequently bitcoin other crypto currencies gain market share and momentum is the most likely scenario.   Bitcoin has a ton of momentum and as time wears on it will only get harder to do dislodge.  I think the cat is out of the bag to a large degree. The concept of decentralized systems-once fully understood by the masses- will be too attractive to ignore.    The projects being built on Ethereum-including this site for example-are just flat out jaw dropping and I am just hoping that governments embrace it and move forward rather than engage in a futile efforts to squash progress.    We will see.",
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