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      "body": "Congratulations @blake.edens! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@blake.edens/birthday1.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 1 year!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@blake.edens) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=blake.edens)_</sub>\n\n\n**Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:**\n<table><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemfest/@steemitboard/steemitboard-supports-the-steemfest-travel-reimbursement-fund\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXDHs9xfx8ZZ3DESFUqHRUQAcQT5kUWobArsRoJg2Yz1F/image.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemfest/@steemitboard/steemitboard-supports-the-steemfest-travel-reimbursement-fund\">SteemitBoard supports the SteemFest⁴ Travel Reimbursement Fund.</a></td></tr></table>\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "body": "Hi! I am a robot. I just upvoted you! I found similar content that readers might be interested in:\nhttps://www.tradingview.com/chart/SLV/IKTjb4N2-How-the-FED-Will-Pump-Silver/",
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      "title": "How the FED Will Pump Silver",
      "body": "<br><center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVo77iZfBKtjyE2DmkpDUehXu4CzeKazFBYMjmQcATScJ/image.png)<br>SLV Trust with Gold:Silver ratio</center>\n\nHistorically, when the FED decides to raise interest rates it ends up breaking the market. This happened in 2000 and 2008 with the solution being interest rate suppression and quantitative easing. Both of these methods produce abnormal rates of inflation , leading the FED to raise interest rates in an attempt to preserve the purchasing power of the dollar - and it breaks once more.\n\nIt is practically certain that going into this next recession, the FED will once more lower interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy. Yet each time they do this, they must start by filling the \"bad debt black hole\" in order to prevent a complete breakdown in confidence. The black hole grows proportionally to debt, and considering there is more debt now than there ever has been in history, the initial round of QE required this go around must be unprecedented in scale.\n\nQE and suppressed interest rates are what caused commodity prices to take off in 2009, notably gold , silver and oil . We can expect the same result this go around. Once the FED is forced to lower interest rates close to or below 0%, there will be no floor on inflation . That point in time will be the perfect setup for silver to shine.\n\nWhen will it happen? It could take another year or so before we see a FED response to a market suffering from debt withdrawals. SLV calls are particularly attractive in such a scenario, as they offer superior leverage for limited risk. Assuming SLV went from $15 to $60 within two years (well within reason), SLV calls offer reward:risk of up to 70:1. Best positioning may be found after a drastic FFR rate cut.\n\nSide note: Largest physical holding of silver , and manager of the SLV fund, just so happens to be JPM . JPM also *coincidentally* held the largest net short position in silver on the futures exchange not long ago (cash deliverable only).",
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      "body": "<br><center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmcydLka4V1CR6qoAutzsQJQBCUyJdbxFisSQJPDfEcELq/image.png)<br>Daily Chart</center>\n\n<br><center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmP6yACXMMPBA1ZS5cLU6AZMYQ6WutqFryNWsf2vVnT82L/image.png)<br>Weekly Chart</center>\n\nQCOM looks like it wants to test it's 2 year support at the $50 mark. Secondary support is somewhere around $43. QCOM is coming off of a finished head and shoulders pattern, making its D leg downward. Typically a D leg is finished by a sharp reversal. In case of negative earnings , QCOM will likely drop well below the $50 support and have a sharp reversal upward. If earnings are positive, QCOM will likely bounce off the $50 support and make a less drastic reversal upward. Fisher transform also indicates the potential for an upward reversal. With QCOM's extreme debt levels, the FED put will serve them well going forward.",
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      "parent_permlink": "money",
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      "permlink": "time-to-buy-puts-on-amzn",
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      "body": "![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmaJ5tAvLu2MjLksbou72kgyssCbCuEGWwMbif7vbukuwU/image.png)\n\nShort opportunity in the works, indicated by bearish elliot triangle wave coupled with a bearish divergence in the 9-day fisher transform . May remain relatively flat on low volume until earnings reported on January 31st, or perhaps drop before then with the broader market on \"trade tensions\" and \"fear of global economic slowdown\".\n\nLong-term view: Amazon has a lot of debt going forward in a market (online retail) that is largely saturated. Competition with Walmart, Target and other retailers putting their foot in the E-commerce space will force Amazon to fight a tough pricing battle in many of their key segments (i.e. consumer electronics, clothing). Competition will push retail prices closer to the cost of production, which will hurt Amazon's gross profits and ultimately, keep their net margin minimized. Without increasing net profit, Amazon will find it increasingly difficult to secure low interest debt. This, coupled with stiff competition and market saturation, will threaten to greatly reduce or stagnate Amazon's growth as a retailer going forward.",
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      "body": "@@ -484,38 +484,8 @@\n lly \n-     \n purs\n@@ -566,57 +566,17 @@\n lus \n-is      \n act\n-uated through\n+ivates\n  inf\n@@ -583,17 +583,23 @@\n lation. \n-T\n+Since t\n he price\n@@ -659,172 +659,52 @@\n  of \n-     inflation. Thus, since the use of monetary stimulus causes inflation, commodity prices will      drive higher\n+inflation, monetary stimulus will raise them\n .%0A%0A \n",
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      "author": "blake.edens",
      "permlink": "incoming-recession-where-to-stash-that-cash",
      "title": "Incoming Recession - Where to Stash That Cash?",
      "body": "*Please Note: These claims are based on a long-term outlook. After considering many different approaches to a recessionary bear market, these all seem reasonable. The following does not constitute investment advice; all financial decisions involving risk of capital are made at the sole discretion of the individual and/or his financial advisor.*\n\n**Safe: Commodities**\n\n     Valuation Model: Monetary stimulus programs such as quantitative easing are typically      pursued post-crisis in an effort        to stimulate a shaken economy. Monetary stimulus is      actuated through inflation. The price of commodities is highly correlated to the real rate of      inflation. Thus, since the use of monetary stimulus causes inflation, commodity prices will      drive higher.\n\n     Examples:\n     - Gold (highly undervalued)\n     - Silver (highly undervalued)\n     - Nonperishable Food (necessary for survival, contains real value)\n     - Clean Water\n\n\n**Some Risk: \"Recession-Proof\" Stocks**\n     \n      Valuation Model: Efficient production, Increased Demand \n\n     Example1: Mining (HL, NEM, TAHO, AG)\n                                 - relatively cheap; huge growth potential\n     Example2: Consumer Staples (WMT, T, VZ)\n                                 - Strong cashflow and dividends, relatively stable\n\n     *Gold and silver have massive growth potential in recessionary events without the credit risk of stocks.\n\n High Risk: Long-Term Options\n\n      Valuation Model: Based directly/inversely to price action of underlying security.\n\n      Examples: $20 01/15/21 SLV Call         [SLV currently @ 14.69]\n                            $160 01/15/21 QQQ Put     [QQQ currently @ 159.52]\n\n     Benefits: 10-20x potential leverage without margin, dynamic trade management\n     Downfalls: Expiration and theta decay; credit risk in case of ETF failure (unlikely) \n\n\nAll said and done, anything involving silver particularly interests me. I plan to implement a mixed strategy using all of the above. Here is a decade chart for SLV.\n\n![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbX4iBAEEkijheP7KHXdJzLtQCmrsuWUdnttg4cWrma1c/image.png)\n\n**Other Resources**:\n\nhttps://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/dow-drops-653-points-worst-christmas-eve-trading-day-ever-n951661\n\n\nhttps://www.thebalance.com/inverted-yield-curve-3305856\n\nhttps://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/bis-warns-global-economy-risks-crisis-relapse\n\nhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/01/imf-chief-warns-of-economic-slowdown-on-back-of-trade-disputes-christine-lagarde\n\nhttps://www.newsweek.com/alan-greenspan-fed-chair-warns-market-collapse-investors-run-cover-1264029\n\nhttps://www.rt.com/business/446231-yellen-warns-corporate-debt/\n\nhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/economic-growth-is-slowing-all-around-the-world/2018/12/25/e2337206-0491-11e9-b5df-5d3874f1ac36_story.html?utm_term=.0e4b072219b7\n\nhttps://www.bbc.com/news/business-46800098",
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      "title": "AMD Short - Initiate Phase II",
      "body": "![5IMhWylU.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmb53RjmvVMmiBVqupiHDtJ5qJpfT3SUgKxvP7DpU6iNyR/5IMhWylU.png)\n\n     AMD has formed a sharp downward triangle on the 1h chart (looks like the beginning of a Gartley ). Lots of sell strength, only people buying are the ones who missed the pump and think they are buying the dip - BIG MISTAKE. Proof? Check out the Accumulation/Distribution on the chart, and you will find the beginning of a new peak, a new era if you will...\n\n\n     AMD historically initiates a pump and dump ritual every decade or so. What is interesting this go around is that AMD did not make it quite as high, which in my opinion is a good thing for the stock overall (shows that people's expectations for AMD , although overblown, are factoring in irrational exuberance). If this thing follows the historical trend (confirmation bias has a tendency to instantiate the past) we could go down as much as half value from here, to around $15. I would like to see AMD stabilize around the $20 mark, which would be a first for the stock, and a very healthy sign long-term. \n\nDisclaimer: Investment decisions should be informed by a financial advisor and personal research. I disclaim any and all liability in the event this commentary/analysis proves to be inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable, resulting in any loss on investment. Trade at your own risk and with due diligence.",
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      "body": "Congratulations @blake.edens! You have completed the following achievement on the Steem blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :\n\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x80/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/votes.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@blake.edens) Award for the number of upvotes\n\n<sub>_Click on the badge to view your Board of Honor._</sub>\n<sub>_If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word_ `STOP`</sub>\n\n\n\n**Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:**\n<table><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-knock-out-by-hardfork\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSPagmBYytsJBn8FwewvqDFRphP6swbbndADgYEsaLNkZ/image.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-knock-out-by-hardfork\">SteemitBoard knock out by hardfork</a></td></tr></table>\n\n> Support [SteemitBoard's project](https://steemit.com/@steemitboard)! **[Vote for its witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1)** and **get one more award**!",
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      "title": "TSLA Hit Second Highest Net Sell Volume Today",
      "body": "@@ -1016,8 +1016,222 @@\n w folks.\n+%0A%0ADisclaimer: I am mildy-bullish to neutral on TSLA. This is a risky trade, thus I make no recommendation and the views stated here are based on my own personal, at times flawed, assumptions. Discretion is advised.\n",
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      "title": "TSLA Hit Second Highest Net Sell Volume Today",
      "body": "       With the largest negative net volume since the 14th of May, 2013, TSLA dipped back into $260 territory today after news got out that the SEC is filing a lawsuit against [CEO] Elon Musk, allegedly for fraud. SEC claims that Musk misled investors when he tweeted that he was considering taking the company private at $420 a share back in August.\n \n\n![m2HLK2gc.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmX9gMDfe5PkjqWsxgp9HUjureZiiB7uQQSafcuTEa7z1d/m2HLK2gc.png)\n \n\n       Naturally this has created an insane amount of implied volatility which is perfect for selling options while premium is high. I have personally taken a November-9 put credit spread with the assumption that TSLA will either remain flat or rebound in the interim. TSLA has broken the daily 2-SD low 5 times previously this year, rebounding on every occurrence. Will history repeat itself, or will this finally be the straw that breaks the camels back? Enjoy the show folks.",
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      "body": "Curious about how you time trade entry, and also your strategy for gauging risk. Do you use (% Chance Profit * Profit Target) - (% Chance Loss * Stop Loss) to calculate average profit per trade? Or do you just consider the probability of success in relation to market trends, support/resistance?\n\nI like using the normally distributed profit ratio, long vs short term trends along with fisher transform and bollinger band to gauge entry risk.",
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      "title": "AMD Breaks Through Weekly Resistance",
      "body": "AMD 5.13% closed above its weekly resistance at $32.50, also breaking through the 2-week 618-fib level. Fisher transform convergence indicates a coming push towards the next fib level at $33.20.\n\n![AMD_Breakout_09-24-18.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZU5KE3i4Noc7UY9uBPLFT4nsZ6zqYBkHnHxx82c54aoZ/AMD_Breakout_09-24-18.png)\n\n\nWatch out for a retest of the $32.50 resistance. If it holds, we have a strong bullish signal - otherwise might a good time to take profits.\n\n\n\nNote: I am not a financial advisor and hold no responsibility for any action taken using this information. The information provided does not constitute investing advice, and is meant purely for personal enjoyment. Investing and trading carry inherent risks that must be understood by market participants to prevent financial loss.",
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