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      "body": "Congratulations @blackswandar! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/https://steemitboard.com/@blackswandar/birthday1.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 1 year!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@blackswandar) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=blackswandar)_</sub>\n\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "author": "blackswandar",
      "body": "![blackswan.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXqDTJbsLfUbCJwd5v2JBbaAb2b2Np7nn8XtB2HV63fD2/blackswan.png)\n \nWhile most of us might be sufficiently familiar with black swans from a zoological point of view, not many of us are equally aware of the deep philosophical impact that the discovery of such bird brought with it. \nEven those who have meditated on the meaning of a Black Swan aren’t invulnerable from its impact. Try and test yourself: how difficult would you find it to compare a black swan (animal) to a pink elephant? Could you consider equally possible the discovery of the latter as it had been for the former? The only difference here lies in the fact that while we (now) know that black swans do exist, we have no record (yet) of existing pink elephants. It’s a matter of proved existence vs potential existence. Unfortunately, we must acknowledge that a significant percentage of the technological discoveries or historical events of the last two millennia have taken place when everybody least excepted them. \nThis leads us to a very important concept: \n### “_what you don't know_ is far more relevant than what you do know.\"\n<br>\n\nKeeping that in mind, it would be wise to reconsider our habitual way of thinking about the past, especially when it comes to assess its influence over what is (or is not) about to happen in the near/far future. This may be even more crucial in modern society, where highly unpredictable events have become, paradoxically, something quite common).   \n\n\n\n# WHAT MAKES AN EVENT A BLACK SWAN? \n<br>According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, there are three main characteristics that define an event as a Black Swan: <br>\n•\tIt must be an outlier\n•\tIt has a big impact \n•\tIt carries an intransitive predictability, meaning that it considered predictable only after its occurrence.  \n\nWith Taleb’s words: \n> _“What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes. \nFirst, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme 'impact'. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.”_\n\n# I KNEW IT! \nIf we meditate further about the last characteristic provided by Taleb, we would agree that such an event mainly teaches one important lesson: we could have predicted it, at least to some extent, would have we be aware of more information (or different kind of information). Just like an equation giving you a very unexpected result because you missed something, a Black Swan will likely show you the consequences of your mistaken view. \nFor a better understanding, Taleb provides the example of life from the point of view of a turkey: \n> _“Something has worked in the past, until—well, it unexpectedly no longer does, and what we have learned from the past turns out to be at best irrelevant or false, at worst viciously misleading.”_\n\n<center>![turkey.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmR7c1EE2xcMB8HoX7ovwyP7phQKkrnHEo653Z3mH47xzU/turkey.png)</center>\n\n**Importance of being qualitatively lazy: how to maximize your collection of information**\nShould the turkey have known about the content of the Thanksgiving menu, it might have tried to escape from the ones who kept feeding it day after day. \n\nHere comes the fundamental lesson brought by Black Swans, aka how avoid end up like a turkey. Are we aware about the extent of our ignorance? How much do we know about the information that we didn’t collect? Are we willing to dig further and analyze every aspect of empirical reality before trying to assess potential outcomings?  \n\nIn conclusion, research is an activity of crucial importance for every person operating in the cryptoworld, which proved to be much more complicated and random than what most of us expected. What is more important is keeping in mind that in order to evaluate the occurrence of events we might not only go through the specifics of events but also their general dynamics as well as not only collecting large quantity of data but meaningful one.   \n\n\nFollow us on [Twitter](https://twitter.com/blackswandar) for more updates, and Join our [Telegram Channel](https://t.me/blackswansignals) for Free Trading Signals and cryptonews! \n\nSupport through Brave is very appreciated! Don’t know what Brave is? Check it out [here](https://brave.com/bla556). \n\nEnjoy the ride,\nBlack Swan Team\n<center>![logo.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQTHqfTWoBtCsrgh3vGdUg8eZk7mXxuuTNCczq7qJBnM1/logo.png)</center>",
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      "title": "THE BLACK SWAN or HOW TO AVOID END UP LIKE A TURKEY"
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      "author": "blackswandar",
      "body": "![BLOCKCHAIN.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmfSeY1thg8aa3pJCmhFNsX4pFSNJiW9sa1fXqYW2FT9fE/BLOCKCHAIN.png)\n\nIt’s no secret that blockchain is a disruptive technology that can potentially be applied in many target markets. That said, it might be interesting to take a closer look so to better understand on which market sectors this technology is actually focusing.\n\nThe following analysis takes in account the variations occurred over a period of 5 months (February — July 2018) among the first 250 positions for capitalization in the cryptocurrencies market. Every coin/token has been labelled to the corresponding market sector/subsector.\n\nHere are the main sectors taken in account:\n\n· Blockchain services\n\n· Financial\n\n· Art, education and entertainment\n\n· Industrials\n\n· Information technology\n\n· Data marketplace and services\n\n· Utilities\n\nEach sector has then been divided into several subsectors to better assess the specifics of the market and better visualise the taxonomy variations.\n\n![february2018.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTSYhWiL57m9A9WTmw2hREHtyj4uMzFKi4PnENKG3FLi4/february2018.png)\n\n![july2018.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRkKXbeGeXmMJdeSQbLQ2TsfmmGXfFQCMmowXtFFr8ttu/july2018.png)\n\nAs shown in the two pictures above, all sectors registered a slight shrinkage, except for **BLOCKCHAIN SERVICES** and **DATA MARKETPLACE AND SERVICES**.\n\nLet’s now compare the February and July subsectors compositions:\n\n![arts.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUthvwkNniz7xJhL4AaJVSqtb1aQoEJwBgAbVxLoSHu2v/arts.png)\n\n![services.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmY4pUL3FCTwUgGtM7NCeihyZYAhfzva76AJfRxf7iiey1/services.png)\n\n![datamarket.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeNdVHajC9iF77K7iwETrVjGjJeApbZJnDdyVt5kNvqR8/datamarket.png)\n\n![financial.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTeEbvQKuhz1d9ugrU4brsUhVvtHDUVWbpaTNRdNEa4nt/financial.png)\n\n![industrials.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZWD91rTCRpPQU4NRLs6puQQb9qJ3r3RuCB52zUCa5o68/industrials.png)\n\n![informationtech.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVsfCg5M1VbFLFKU5GPPigSUGioPQkBnYug2rLGuRMF8T/informationtech.png)\n\n![utilities.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmfLtfn6HvBLxfpaVGLQb3TJ8bhzudAsu2LLgKUZKEViYG/utilities.png)\n\nLooking to the **BLOCKCHAIN SERVICES** subsectors distribution, we can notice that the number of **platform projects** registered a solid **35% increase** between February (28) and July (38). This trend reflects an increasing interest in blockchain platforms, with new listed platforms addressing scalability issues through different solutions.\n\nFurthermore, blockchain technology looks to be moving progressively closer to artificial intelligence. In fact, if we look at the **DATA MARKETPLACE AND SERVICES** sector, we can see that the AI related projects more than doubled during the period in analysis.\n\nAs shown in the above graphs, tokens are also experiencing a slow transition from payment solutions to utilities. This slow change is confirmed by variation registered in the number of coins and the number of service tokens, respectively decreasing and increasing.\n\nFinally, with regards to the **EXCHANGE** subsector, much of the increase (**67%**) from February to July was due to the growing number of decentralized exchanges, which represent one of the biggest challenge that blockchain market is currently facing. DEX technology allows peer-to-peer trades of currencies without the need of a third party and for this reason its implementation it’s considered potentially disruptive. However, recent events proved that more research is needed for a complete, user-friendly and secure implementation of decentralized exchanges.\n\nThat’s all folks! Stay tuned for the next update!\n\nEnjoy the ride,\nBlack Swan Team",
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      "body": "# Hey Steemit,\n<br>Here is you Black Swan, so\nSo, where did we leave off with the (anti) love story? \n\n![WhatsApp Image 2018-07-09 at 15.06.55.jpeg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdPK1gmbncZEU8KUKHgZBmJex3V32BnW2NykjCY9Z8UGg/WhatsApp%20Image%202018-07-09%20at%2015.06.55.jpeg)\n\nHere’s a short recap of the first part of the article: \n<hr>\n\n•\tAt the end of 2017, CME and CBOE decided to introduce futures on BTC on their respective markets\n•\tBoth CME and CBOE designed a standard structure for such futures  (with slight different features: learn more about the specifics of CME and CBOE BTC futures here: https://www.blackswangate.com/blog/btc-btcfutures-an-anti-love-story-1-of-2)\n\n<hr>\n\nThat said, we would now like to assess whether futures’ introduction has in fact influenced BTC’s price. \n**In order to do so we took into account trades executed on the BRR (Bitcoin Reference Rate) exchanges: Kraken, Bitstamp, Gdax and itBit.** In particular, we focused our analysis on the price gaps registered over two different time frame periods: **November 2017 and June 2018.**  \n### Let’s start with November 2017\nBelow you can see BTC’s price daily highs and lows raw data and charts recorded on the four exchanges used as a reference for the BRR: \n \n![WhatsApp Image 2018-07-09 at 14.47.14(1).jpeg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRreqGFd8UzTHcFUnggtkWSYPjhLh1nhzFXRL81nMubgc/WhatsApp%20Image%202018-07-09%20at%2014.47.14(1).jpeg)\n\n![WhatsApp Image 2018-07-09 at 14.47.14(2).jpeg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmRUSdPzuANNjsmF2SZNvHMTwZzch5NegMzogha8dZp2zT/WhatsApp%20Image%202018-07-09%20at%2014.47.14(2).jpeg)\n\n\nAt a first glance it’s easy to notice that values differ significantly. In particular, the average spread between different highs values among BRR exchanges averaged **83.12 USD (i.e. 0.996%)**: enough of an opportunity for profitable arbitrage trades.  \nData regarding the average difference occurring between the highest low and lowest low of the same period provide further support to our argument.\nAs shown below (BTC price lows chart – November 2017), consistent difference in values occurs, widening considerably as the end of the month approached. \n\n ![WhatsApp Image 2018-07-09 at 14.47.14(3).jpeg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQpzy78dSWphkqJCaaG8oq53hJUi9bV5vD9t2sSRekTmx/WhatsApp%20Image%202018-07-09%20at%2014.47.14(3).jpeg)\n\nIn this case the BTC daily lows registered an even bigger average difference with respect to BTC daily highs: **88.49 USD, i.e. 1.11%.**\nThat said, let’s now assess whether futures introduction have indeed influenced BTC’s price on the BRR exchanges. \n### What happened after futures’ introduction?\nUsing the very same method, we took into account June 2018 as a reference month for trades executed on the BRR exchanges. \nHere you find June 2018 BTC daily highs and lows raw data and charts: \n \n![WhatsApp Image 2018-07-09 at 14.47.13.jpeg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQ7mLLqxuhRtnGheHM34b12hAMXtVEVeycV7GQAQD51RA/WhatsApp%20Image%202018-07-09%20at%2014.47.13.jpeg)\n \n![WhatsApp Image 2018-07-09 at 14.47.13(1).jpeg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbCwejoNc64bbyaBCs6NwrC9Hie2qDuF27WJ9VU4aPN5N/WhatsApp%20Image%202018-07-09%20at%2014.47.13(1).jpeg)\n\nAs we can see from the June 2018 BTC price daily highs chart, virtually no difference between values occur, thus creating a trend line almost perfectly overlapped. Analyzing the raw data we can determine an average price difference of **18.14 USD, i.e. only 0.27%** (more less one fourth with respect to November 2017): clearly too little of a spread to represent a profitable arbitrage opportunity, especially if we consider fees. \nA very similar situation occurs with June 2018 BTC daily lows: \n \n![WhatsApp Image 2018-07-09 at 14.47.14.jpeg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmS6pWoyazyrAGG7ZVgBA8HzD8wQa46kEAZfh7d7gpy2EK/WhatsApp%20Image%202018-07-09%20at%2014.47.14.jpeg)\n\nOnce again, daily lows gap proved wider than daily highs one. That said, it averaged a very narrow **22.66 USD, i.e. 0.36%** difference (more less one third with respect to November 2017). \n#### These data show us an incontrovertible fact: futures introduction had indeed influenced BTC prices, at least with respect to the price gap previously existing between the 4 exchanges taken into account. \nIt would be interesting to further extend the “arbitrage research” to other exchanges as well, so to assess the extent to which futures introduction influenced price gap among the overall market. \nHowever, one more question remains unanswered: \n## What role did BTC futures play in the recent months bearish market?\nIf, on one hand, finding an answer to such question is no easy task, on the other we have to bear in mind few significant facts.  For example, it’d be wise to remember that futures’ introduction made short selling on Bitcoin much easier than it used to be, especially because the settlement of the contracts is on a cash basis.  \nMoreover,  the narrower price gaps between exchanges  may have made life easier to everyone who intended manipulate BTC’s price (especially downwards), but of course we can’t put forward any proof, yet.  \n\nDid you like the article? What are your thoughts? Leave a comment and let us know what you think! \n\nBest,\nBlack Swan Team\n\n<center>![logo.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmTBu613r3VReXYAKwzuXDEjhRvgWEhSgYjcohHAz5LLV6/logo.png)</center>",
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      "body": "# Hey Steemit,\n<br>here is your Black Swan, so\nAn important and interesting debate in the community arose after the introduction of BTC futures.\nWhile someone suggested that it’d been part of a strategy aimed at “financializing” the cryptocurrency industry, some others identified futures as the main cause of the fall of BTC prices during the last months, lastly a third category of people think futures have no impact on the course of prices. \n**In this article we will try to investigate on whether futures did indeed have an impact (and in what measure) on BTC’s price analyzing its behavior prior and subsequent to the introduction of futures.**\nBut, first of all, three fundamental questions have to be answered:\n\n**1. What is a future?** \n**2. What are the specific characteristics of BTC future?**\n**3. In which way could futures have influenced BTC’s price?**\n\n![BITCOIN FUTURES.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmbZmfq41DoFG3ReAnh4uvnWkGQWBJxAWULhRGHThaYfmm/BITCOIN%20FUTURES.png)\n\n## WHAT IS A FUTURE?\n\n<br>•\t<b>A future is a financial instrument / contract that represents another financial activity (the underlying asset);</b> following the subscription of the  future the buyer undertakes to purchase the asset and the seller to sell it. Examples of underlying assets of a future are physical commodities, stocks, bonds or other financial instruments.\n\n•\t**The future is standardized to facilitate trading.** This means that the future must be settled at a predetermined later date with the corresponding price; moreover the future incorporates other provisions such as detailed clauses related to the future delivery, such as quantity and quality of the underlying asset of the contract. Some futures have a physical delivery of the asset (suppose you bought an oil barrel: you’d physically get one at the settlement of the contract) – as usually happens to the commodity future – or cash delivery, as usually happens when the underlying asset is a financial instrument. \n\n•\t**You can allocate a percentage of the whole contract value.** What makes investing in futures more appealing than investing in the underlying asset is that in the case of futures it is not necessary to invest financial resources equal to the value of the corresponding underlying asset: it is possible to only pay a “margin” (i.e. only a percentage of the total amount) that serves as collateral for the intermediary in case of relevant losses. This allows you to speculate with only a relatively small amount of money while profiting or losing with respect to the total amount. \n\n<hr>\n\n\n#### Futures also simplify the process of selling short. When you want to sell short an asset you have to find someone who lends it to you, typically intermediary agents, and usually you have to pay a fee to such intermediaries. In the case of futures, being the future a peer to peer contract the process of lending is not necessary at all and no fees are due\n\n<hr>\n\n## WHAT ARE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF BTC FUTURES?\n<br>First of all, BTC futures are listed on two markets: the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).\n\n\n\n![cboe.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVGV6f3DqzZYNT2bEkfjtAUcMmtByPFRwb99Lw6x5H6ZY/cboe.png) | ![cme.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmfMujV5DSKLLU11Ddfk3BHqoKTGrJbitZxRLTbm9cx6Sf/cme.png)\n------------- | -----------\n\nAs we said before, futures are standardized, nevertheless CBOE and CME present different features\nFeature    | CME | CBOE\n---- | ---- | ----\nUNDERLYING ASSET | 1 BTC | 5 BTC\nSPOT PRICE | Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR)* | Gemini**\nMARGIN | 35%|  40% \nSETTLEMENT |\tFinacially settled*** |\tFinacially settled***\n\n\n<br>*Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) aggregates 4 exchanges: itBit, Kraken, Bitstamp and GDAX (taking into account trades between 3 P.M. and 4 P.M. GMT)\n** Auction at 4 P.M. on the settlement day\n*** A financial settlement is a “cash” settlement, meaning that at the expiration of the contract the settlement means is only going to be fiat money, not cryptocurrency. \n\n### Price limit: \n•\tCME: as maximum level of excursion during a single trading session, CME considers 7%, 13% and 20% in both directions. While the first two levels could be widened, the third sets the maximum limit for the single trading session (meaning that the BTC future will be suspended until the next trading session). \n•\tCBOE: in this case there are two limits (10% and 20%) and eventual suspensions are only temporary: 2 minutes when price reaches 10% excursion, 5 minutes when it reaches 20% excursion.\n### Listed contract:\n•\tCME: “monthly contracts listed for the nearest 2 months in the March quarterly cycle (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec) plus the nearest 2 serial months not in the March quarterly cycle.” \n•\tCBOE: “the exchange may list for trading up to 4 near-term expiration weeks (“weekly” contracts), 3 near-term serial months (“serial” contracts) and 3 months on the March quarterly cycle (“quarterly” contracts). \n\nFor a more thorough understanding of the CME and CBOE BTC futures you can check the links below: \n•\tCME:\n https://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures/contract-specifications \n•\tCBOE:\nhttp://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/bitcoin_contract_specifications.html \n\n<hr>\n\n#### That said, have introduction of futures really influenced the price of BTC?\n#### Well, our answer is a big YES.\n\n<hr>\n\nKeep following us and check the part 2 of this article to find out what part did BTC futures have in the last months BTC’s bearish trend.\n\nBest,\nBlack Swan Team\n\n<center>![logo.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQTHqfTWoBtCsrgh3vGdUg8eZk7mXxuuTNCczq7qJBnM1/logo.png)</center>",
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      "body": "We took all the info from the Bitfinex website... nothing more:) \nKeep following us!",
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      "body": "Good description of the mechanism, what sources do you base upon your article.\nPlease look for the vote producer riccardian contract re legality of voting with tokens of others without consent.",
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      "body": "# Hey Steemit,\n\n<br>Here is your Black Swan, so\nAs we stated in our previous article we are drafting the report for EOS in order to provide you with a consistent and comprehensive document to understand this very hyped project. The report will take into account, obviously, the latest “political developments” occurred with respect to the community and the behaviour of block producers, but we would like to focus on a different matter in this article.\n\n<center>![eos.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmSDDqbWsEkXwvNDaJdh8ENd5Necjn3Jf7Fh997MhePoSe/eos.png)</center>\n\n<hr>\n\n# Assumption II: The legitimacy of the votes casted by Bitfinex on the first block producers election.\n\n<br>Prior to any further consideration it shall be noted that, as at the voting date (14 June 2018), Bitfinex held 10.67% of the total number of EOS tokens in circulation and asked its EOS customers whether their tokens should have been used by Bitfinex, “on their behalf” (we will talk again of this topic), to cast the so called “EOS Network Activation Vote”. Furthermore Bitfinex was the 8th block producer for number of votes (currently is the 1st), so it had a material interest in procuring that at least 15% of all the EOS tokens holders would have voted in order to start working as a block producer within the EOS network.\nThe EOS Network Activation Vote worked as follows:\n(i)\tBitfinex would have used the EOS tokens of its customers to vote for block producers to the extent that at least 15% of the EOS tokens on Bitfinex would have voted yes to the EOS Network Activation Vote proposal;\n(ii)\tin case of the 15% threshold being reached Bitfinex would have used EOS tokens to vote equally for the first 30 most voted block producers (including itself);\n(iii)\tin case of 15% of the EOS tokens on Bitfinex being used to vote no to the EOS Network Activation Vote, Bitfinex would have closed the voting poll and not used the EOS tokens to vote on the EOS mainnet.\nIt is hard to understand the rationale underlying the voting mechanism chosen by Bitfinex.\n\n<hr>\n\n<b><i> In particular it is hard to understand on which basis when 15% of the tokens on Bitfinex expressed their vote to adhere to the EOS Network Activation Vote the remaining 85% of token holders shall be forced by this strange “tyranny of the minority”.  </i></b>\n\n<hr>\n\nOn which legal, economical and/or sociological basis were 85% of the tokens used just because the remaining minority of 15% of the tokens represented they wanted to participate to the EOS Network Activation Vote? Why did the poll not remain open for a given amount of time but instead was programmed to be closed as soon as the threshold would have been reached?\n<b> The answer is simple and straightforward: because Bitfinex had a material interest in the launch of EOS mainnet. </b> And this is clearly legitimate. The major problem is that, behaving as a “tyrannical representative” that uses biased voting system it may have increased the turmoil around the launch of the EOS mainnet.\nThe voting rules followed by Bitfinex were not defined through a solid majority. It also seems that Bitfinex did not respect nor follow any kind of politics/methodology characteristic of real life elections (which, even if flawed, may reach a sort of consensus in their utilization nontheless).\n\n<hr>\n\n### <i>So, as far as our short analysis goes, EOS DPoS consensus is a representative system in which other very prominent representatives (i.e. exchanges) may vote on behalf of token holders without such token holders even knowing it (it is hard to expect all of the voters of Bitfinex to have known that the EOS Network Activation Vote was ongoing and that their tokens would have been used without their consent). </i>\n\n<hr>\n\nFurthermore such custodians (exchanges) / self declared representatives may chose themselves the rules to be applied between them and their customers, and the votes casting is, per se, centralised and by definition not transparent as almost all exchanges are centralised exchanges.\nOnly time will let us know if the issues we raised in these two articles are really issues or if we are seeing a new form of representative/semi-decentralised system taking its shape, but one thing is sure: <b> the starting of EOS mainnet has been somewhat dramatic and shady, a very good thriller movie.</b>\n\nUpvote the post if you liked it, comment and make suggestions and remember to subscribe to our Steem page if you want brand new content from Black Swan!\n\nBest,\nBlack Swan team\n\n<center>![logo.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmQTHqfTWoBtCsrgh3vGdUg8eZk7mXxuuTNCczq7qJBnM1/logo.png)</center>",
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      "body": "@@ -4677,17 +4677,16 @@\n ortunity\n-.\n %0AThe las\n",
      "json_metadata": "{\"tags\":[\"trading\",\"bitcoin\",\"cryptocurrency\",\"crypto\",\"psychology\"],\"image\":[\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUdVzJfgoSeb9Uts8RAd6m1DjdBrCXf1C95MtJwoJREdM/Trader.png\",\"https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZ5MSepdebrQNCFXwnFgfBjo1rEHcqgFz7ExbFGNeEEYf/image.png\"],\"app\":\"steemit/0.1\",\"format\":\"markdown\"}",
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      "title": "Five Common Mistakes that Make you a Beginner Trader"
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      "author": "blackswandar",
      "body": "# Hey Steemit!\n\nHere is your Black Swan, so\n\nEveryone of us makes errors in our everyday’s life choices.  Fortunately, for most of us the number of errors is less than the right things we do. \nIn trading it isn't so.  Many times we can make a number of mistakes definitely bigger than right things we do, especially if we are beginners. \n**However we can learn from our errors: many mistakes are useful because they give us the possibility to grow up and to understand many things that otherwise we wouldn’t have learned.**\nA mistake that could help us to understand our limits and eventually to overcome them in the future it’s to open a trade with a way too big amount of money that we shouldn’t have invested at that time. When managing a trade that in our mind is too important  both in terms of amount and of “psychological capital” this will bring us to adopt a wrong psychological attitude. **The wrong psychological attitude often manifests itself through negative emotions: fear could take over our mind and bring us to make mistakes, also heavy ones.**\n\n<hr>\n\n### Among the most important things traders should take care of, we find “psychological capital” that is far more important than financial capital, especially to people that have a continuous approach to the market. Traders should have a calm mind-set and develop self-confidence; most importantly they shall stay calm and confident when they have open positions.\n\n<hr>\n \nIn light of the above assumptions is now time to analyse a few mistakes that can make traders to lose their self-confidence.\n\n![Trader.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUdVzJfgoSeb9Uts8RAd6m1DjdBrCXf1C95MtJwoJREdM/Trader.png)\n\n\n# 1.  Respect your stop loss\n\nOne of the most common errors is to set a stop loss level on the trading platform and cancel it few seconds before it be triggered. Even worse would be to set a stop loss level in our mind without closing the position when the price matches our previously decided stop loss.\nThis is a very common mistake, but if someone wants to have a long career as a trader it is necessary that he understands the importance of stop losses. **Stop losses are pivotal to trading because they help us not only to preserve our financial capital, but also to avoid devastating losses for our morale.** As often happen to whom doesn’t want to follow the stop loss rule, it is sufficient one wrong trade only to lose a material part of its financial resources as well as a fair share of his self confidence. Remember that to recover a loss of 10% of your money you need a gain of 11% only, but if you have to recover a loss of 50% you need a gain of 100%!!\n\n# 2. Don't change the time frame\n\nAnother common mistake is to open a trade looking at a chart with a certain time frame and then, when this trade is starting to create a loss, revealing it as a wrong choice, switching the time frame of the chart. So we start to believe it's only a question of time, that we have only to wait and see and our trade would be great. Indeed nine times out of ten prices will continue to move against our position bringing our portfolio to an important loss.\n\n# 3. Don't modify your time of exposure to the market\n\nA third mistake, that may be considered as the “son” of mistake no. 2, is the tendency to modify the time of exposure to the market. Let me explain it better.\nSometimes traders open position they would like to close during that very trading session but, when the trade starts to go wrong, they maintain the position to the day after, hoping prices will change direction, and that the loss will be turned into a gain. Often this type of hope remains just an hope, being the last resort of a trader. **When you start hoping you are in a deeply troubled mood and it doesn't foresee nothing good.**\n\n# 4. Trend is your friend\nAnother common mistake is to have in mind a trade, even if none of the indicators which we usually use supports our idea.  For instance several months ago General Electric fell down for many consecutive days. Surely someone, despite the strong bearish trend, did find an indicator, oscillator or forced technical figure to bring us the light…”I saw it…the rebound!” The reasoning is: “GE is an historical company, the index it is not going down…it is certainly an excess. Now sellers have finished to push down prices, look at the MACD, it is creating a divergence, this is a good moment to enter…” **Many times this kind of reasoning, looking for a foothold to validate our idea, is only the anteroom of a wrong trade.**\n\n \n<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZ5MSepdebrQNCFXwnFgfBjo1rEHcqgFz7ExbFGNeEEYf/image.png)</center>\n\n# 5. Don't brood on missed opportunity.\nThe last mistake we consider in this article is an attitudinal mistake, a psychological error. It’s about brooding for a long time on a missed opportunity or about a trade we didn’t manage in a good way.\nSo many times it happens to repeat to ourselves, obsessively: “If only I would have bought that stock…why didn’t I buy it? I wanted to do it, I’m a stupid…did you see its rise?” This negative attitude brings our mind to a sort of “ search for a revenge” and this can only lead you to another wrong trade.\n\nAll these indications are useful and can be applied to any type of trade you make and on any type of instrument, including crypto.\n\n#### Upvote the post if you liked it, comment and make suggestions and  subscribe to our Steem page if you want brand new content from Black Swan!\n\n## Best,\n## Black Swan team",
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      "body": "# Hey Steemit!\n\nHere is your Black Swan, so\n\nEveryone of us makes errors in our everyday’s life choices.  Fortunately, for most of us the number of errors is less than the right things we do. \nIn trading it isn't so.  Many times we can make a number of mistakes definitely bigger than right things we do, especially if we are beginners. \n**However we can learn from our errors: many mistakes are useful because they give us the possibility to grow up and to understand many things that otherwise we wouldn’t have learned.**\nA mistake that could help us to understand our limits and eventually to overcome them in the future it’s to open a trade with a way too big amount of money that we shouldn’t have invested at that time. When managing a trade that in our mind is too important  both in terms of amount and of “psychological capital” this will bring us to adopt a wrong psychological attitude. **The wrong psychological attitude often manifests itself through negative emotions: fear could take over our mind and bring us to make mistakes, also heavy ones.**\n\n<hr>\n\n### Among the most important things traders should take care of, we find “psychological capital” that is far more important than financial capital, especially to people that have a continuous approach to the market. Traders should have a calm mind-set and develop self-confidence; most importantly they shall stay calm and confident when they have open positions.\n\n<hr>\n \nIn light of the above assumptions is now time to analyse a few mistakes that can make traders to lose their self-confidence.\n\n![Trader.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmUdVzJfgoSeb9Uts8RAd6m1DjdBrCXf1C95MtJwoJREdM/Trader.png)\n\n\n# 1.  Respect your stop loss\n\nOne of the most common errors is to set a stop loss level on the trading platform and cancel it few seconds before it be triggered. Even worse would be to set a stop loss level in our mind without closing the position when the price matches our previously decided stop loss.\nThis is a very common mistake, but if someone wants to have a long career as a trader it is necessary that he understands the importance of stop losses. **Stop losses are pivotal to trading because they help us not only to preserve our financial capital, but also to avoid devastating losses for our morale.** As often happen to whom doesn’t want to follow the stop loss rule, it is sufficient one wrong trade only to lose a material part of its financial resources as well as a fair share of his self confidence. Remember that to recover a loss of 10% of your money you need a gain of 11% only, but if you have to recover a loss of 50% you need a gain of 100%!!\n\n# 2. Don't change the time frame\n\nAnother common mistake is to open a trade looking at a chart with a certain time frame and then, when this trade is starting to create a loss, revealing it as a wrong choice, switching the time frame of the chart. So we start to believe it's only a question of time, that we have only to wait and see and our trade would be great. Indeed nine times out of ten prices will continue to move against our position bringing our portfolio to an important loss.\n\n# 3. Don't modify your time of exposure to the market\n\nA third mistake, that may be considered as the “son” of mistake no. 2, is the tendency to modify the time of exposure to the market. Let me explain it better.\nSometimes traders open position they would like to close during that very trading session but, when the trade starts to go wrong, they maintain the position to the day after, hoping prices will change direction, and that the loss will be turned into a gain. Often this type of hope remains just an hope, being the last resort of a trader. **When you start hoping you are in a deeply troubled mood and it doesn't foresee nothing good.**\n\n# 4. Trend is your friend\nAnother common mistake is to have in mind a trade, even if none of the indicators which we usually use supports our idea.  For instance several months ago General Electric fell down for many consecutive days. Surely someone, despite the strong bearish trend, did find an indicator, oscillator or forced technical figure to bring us the light…”I saw it…the rebound!” The reasoning is: “GE is an historical company, the index it is not going down…it is certainly an excess. Now sellers have finished to push down prices, look at the MACD, it is creating a divergence, this is a good moment to enter…” **Many times this kind of reasoning, looking for a foothold to validate our idea, is only the anteroom of a wrong trade.**\n\n \n<center>![](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZ5MSepdebrQNCFXwnFgfBjo1rEHcqgFz7ExbFGNeEEYf/image.png)</center>\n\n# 5. Don't brood on missed opportunity.\nThe last mistake we consider in this article is an attitudinal mistake, a psychological error. It’s about brooding for a long time on a missed opportunity or about a trade we didn’t manage in a good way.\nSo many times it happens to repeat to ourselves, obsessively: “If only I would have bought that stock…why didn’t I buy it? I wanted to do it, I’m a stupid…did you see its rise?” This negative attitude brings our mind to a sort of “ search for a revenge” and this can only lead you to another wrong trade.\n\nAll these indications are useful and can be applied to any type of trade you make and on any type of instrument, including crypto.\n\n#### Upvote the post if you liked it, comment and make suggestions and  subscribe to our Steem page if you want brand new content from Black Swan!\n\n## Best,\n## Black Swan team",
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      "body": "![BTCUSD Chart](https://www.tradingview.com/i/KBbbA9BJ/)\n\n# Hey Steemit!\n\nHere is your Black Swan,\nBTCUSD seems to be very uncertain in its movements during this days. If we analyze the chart we can point out immediately the lack of volume . This scarcity keep prices into a very narrow range and for the moment there isn't any sign that allow us to take a position. \nPrices are in an important supportive area after the recent drop. If we think BTCUSD could rise, a very important level to check is $6600 area, the first resistance area we find. Above this area there isn't any important resistance till about $7800. \nIf we look at the bearish side we can see there is a supportive area at about $6000 and then to $5400 area, but it is not a strong level. \nIndicators are set to favor a rebound rather than a fall but, at the moment, volume doesn't support this idea. \nWe have to wait and see. \n\nBest,\nBlack Swan team\n\n*** This analysis is not a buy or sell advice, it is drawn up for educational purpose only ***",
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      "body": "![BTCUSD Chart](https://www.tradingview.com/i/KBbbA9BJ/)\n\n# Hey Steemit!\n\nHere is your Black Swan,\nBTCUSD seems to be very uncertain in its movements during this days. If we analyze the chart we can point out immediately the lack of volume . This scarcity keep prices into a very narrow range and for the moment there isn't any sign that allow us to take a position. \nPrices are in an important supportive area after the recent drop. If we think BTCUSD could rise, a very important level to check is $6600 area, the first resistance area we find. Above this area there isn't any important resistance till about $7800. \nIf we look at the bearish side we can see there is a supportive area at about $6000 and then to $5400 area, but it is not a strong level. \nIndicators are set to favor a rebound rather than a fall but, at the moment, volume doesn't support this idea. \nWe have to wait and see. \n\nBest,\nBlack Swan team\n\n*** This analysis is not a buy or sell advice, it is drawn up for educational purpose only ***",
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      "body": "Congratulations @blackswandar! You have completed some achievement on Steemit and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :\n\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/firstcommented.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@blackswandar) You got a First Reply\n\n<sub>_Click on the badge to view your Board of Honor._</sub>\n<sub>_If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word_ `STOP`</sub>\n\n\n\n**Do not miss the [last post](https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-world-cup-contest-brazil-vs-switzerland) from @steemitboard!**\n\n---\n**Participate in the [SteemitBoard World Cup Contest](https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-world-cup-contest-collect-badges-and-win-free-sbd)!**\nCollect World Cup badges and win free SBD\nSupport the Gold Sponsors of the contest: [@good-karma](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=good-karma&approve=1) and [@lukestokes](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=lukestokes.mhth&approve=1)\n\n---\n\n> Do you like [SteemitBoard's project](https://steemit.com/@steemitboard)? Then **[Vote for its witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1)** and **get one more award**!",
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      "body": "I agree!",
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      "author": "coin.info",
      "body": "**Coins mentioned in post:**\n\nCoin | | Price (USD) | 📉 24h | 📉 7d\n- | - | - | - | -\n**EOS** | EOS | 10.488$ | _-3.15%_ | _-27.33%_\n**ETH** | Ethereum | 493.361$ | _-0.77%_ | _-18.32%_\n**STEEM** | Steem | 1.641$ | _-3.18%_ | _-27.32%_\n**WAVES** | Waves | 3.394$ | _-3.1%_ | _-25.48%_",
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      "body": "<h1>Hey Steemit, </h1>\n\nHere is your Black Swan, so\nWe are currently working on the EOS report, in order to provide the community with an up-to-date tool to understand how one of the most hyped crypto projects actually works, and we are planning to publish it on 27 June 2018.\nStudying the white paper, the various blog posts from Block.one and comparing EOS to other smart contract platforms (such as Ethereum, Waves etc..), lately we have been focusing on the voting process of Block Producers. \n<hr>\n<b> <i>In fact we have some serious concerns with respect to the actual feasibility of the voting system that EOS.IO software incorporates in order to elect the 21 Block Producers.  </i> </b>\n<hr>\nIf on the one side the BTF/DPoS system EOS.IO implemented shall allow transaction speed and scalability, on the other side the 15% threshold of EOS Token to be locked in the voting smart contracts may be flawed in its underlying assumptions:\n(i)\tthere are incentives for people to actively vote the Block Producers;\n(ii)\tthe votes will be casted by EOS Token holders.\nThis article will focus on paragraph (i), and we will publish in the next few days a second article to address our concerns under (ii).\n\n<center>![eos.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeEGCcQNjY9fWd385ghmwbsrsYf1JCo2Qfx7AGSR586QX/eos.png)</center>\n\n<hr>\n\n<h2>Assumption: There are incentives for people to actively vote the Block Producers</h2>\n\nWith respect to (i) we note that also in real life electoral systems increasingly more people decide not to vote for various reasons; people may do not find a candidate that reflects their core values, do not think that their vote will have a real impact on the overall elections etc… <b>This is called voter apathy</b> (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_apathy). \nAlso in DPoS we find the very same incentive problems as people have to actively “go to vote” and use their tokens: considering that a big shares of EOS Tokens are still on exchanges this may prove to be difficult. It has also to be noted that most of the token holders are perhaps tech savvy but do not have the technological knowledge to participate in the EOS voting system since to use Cleos (the client deployed for the voting system) it is necessary to write a few lines of code; as an alternative it is possible to use third party applications that have still to be tested (would you trust sending your EOS Tokens to an unknown third party smart contract?).\n<hr>\n<b><i>Furthermore the overall EOS.IO software architecture shall be taken into account to address whether users will have more incentives in the future to vote or not, and here we would like to share with you our preliminary thoughts. </i></b>\n<hr>\nUnder EOS.IO software architecture having EOS Tokens entitle holders to use a part of the overall computational resources of the blockchain network, proportional to their holdings over the overall amount of EOS Tokens. If and when the computational resources will be used by smart contracts and dApps, companies deploying their software on EOS may find economically efficient not to buy EOS Tokens but instead to rent them from token holders. \n\nIf that proves to be the case a disalignment in the incentives provided by the system will clearly occur, as EOS Token holders will find themselves in a situation in which, notwithstanding the voter’s apathy problem:\n<b>(i)\tif they rent their tokens they will have a financial revenue stream;\n(ii)\tif they participate to the voting process they are not supposed to earn any kind of rewards.</b>\nNow these are only our preliminary thoughts, but at least as the voter’s apathy problem goes, we have already seen that it has been extremely difficult to reach the 15% of the token holders’ consent, as such threshold would have not been reached would Bitfinex not cast its votes, on behalf of its customers, in the last few hours.\n<hr>\n<b><i>The fact that we are already seeing layers of representatives/intermediaries in “decentralised systems” is, per se, a serious concern, considering the fact that DPoS itself is a representative system in the context of which only a few nodes process the transactions on behalf of all token holders. </i></b>\n<hr>\nIf such “representatives” are then elected by other representatives, we shall ask ourselves where blockchain decentralisation and disintermediation is going.\n\nPlease stay tuned for part II of this article and like the post if you liked it, comment and make suggestions as we are always open to debate and remember to subscribe to our Steem page if you want brand new content!\n\nBest,\nBlack Swan team<center>![logo-fin-Ab.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZfFq4vpKjjhqqeHnBzE1p7ouZ85ycreKraHtEUr5KAiZ/logo-fin-Ab.png)</center>",
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      "body": "<This seems very likely, the energy requirements of bloated blockchains are making it close to impossible for miners to stay profitable.>\n\nThis is absolutely not true, Bitcoin's network hashrate is growing continuously and has made near x10 since last year, we don't see how miners should continue to mine on an unprofitable chain. Mining difficulty adjust itself according to network hashrate to maintain constant block time extraction: the more is the hashrate, the higher difficulty will be and vice versa.\n\n<Let's be honest, if mining Bitcoin ever becomes unprofitable for miners, then we can rest assured the blockchain will fail.>\n\nThis is the whole point on which blockchain relies on: the economic incentives are the basis of cryptoeconomy, even in PoS if token holders decide to not stake their tokens because it's not so profitable, then the corresponding blockchain will fail. Until now PoW has shown a lot of strenghts in terms of security and resiliency (if the network is big enough to make attacks too much expensive), as such as weaknesses in terms of resources wastage. PoS on the other hand is not expensive in terms of resources but there are trade-offs regarding decentralisation and security, which are main features of blockchain itself.\n\nBest,\nBlack Swan",
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      "body": "Welcome to steemit @blackswandar. Join @minnowsupport project for more help. Checkout @helpie and @qurator projects.\nSend SBD/STEEM to @treeplanter to plant trees and get an get an upvote in exchange of your donation (Min 0.01 SDB) \nUpvote this comment to keep helping more new steemians \nSend SBD/STEEM to @tuanis in exchange of an upvote and support this project, follow for random votes.",
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      "body": "<h1>Hello Steemit!</h1>\n\n<center>![logo-fin-Ab.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZfFq4vpKjjhqqeHnBzE1p7ouZ85ycreKraHtEUr5KAiZ/logo-fin-Ab.png)</center>\n\nWe @ <b>Black Swan DAR</b> strongly believe that a diversified and multidisciplinary background is pivotal for a comprehensive and coherent analysis of blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies. \n\nWe are professionals with a solid background in finance, M&A, quantitative & qualitative analysis and education and our mission is to make the community aware and prepared on crypto financial investments.\n\n<i>On our website you will find:</i>\n\n<h2>1. Due Diligence report </h2>\n\n![Report.PNG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmR6z2DaPfdreB8UJxKHRSPEGanfHsw7tvHdtHqL9AUQYJ/Report.PNG)\n\nWe will soon publish the roadmap of the next DD reports release on our webpage and media channels.\n<hr> \n\n<h2>2. High quality trading signals </h2>\n\n![equity.PNG](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmT7paQXnkJ49SStdQLE5gDa1oJz8NHGiqrJ2FuWj97DtC/equity.PNG)\n\n<hr>\n\n<h2>3. ICO consulting </h2>\n\nIf you run a business and want to fund it through an ICO but you don't know how, get in touch with us!\n\n<hr>\n\n<h2>4. News & TA </h2>\n\nWhat is going on in crypto world? News from main crypto online newspaper and Technical Analysis by our professional traders.\n\n<hr>\n\n<h2>5. Resources </h2>\n\nBrief explanation of most important terms in crypto space.\n\n<hr>\n\nMany more articles will come! Stay tuned!\n\nFollow us:\n\nWebsite: <a href=\"www.blackswangate.com\"> www.blackswangate.com</a>\nTwitter:<a href=\"https://twitter.com/blackswandar\"> https://twitter.com/blackswandar</a>\nFacebook:<a href=\"https://www.facebook.com/blackswandar/\"> https://www.facebook.com/blackswandar/</a>\n\nLooking forward to hearing feedback from community,\nBlack Swan DAR team",
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      "body": "Welcome to Steem Community @blackswandar! As a gentle reminder, please keep your master password safe. The best practise is to use your private posting key to login to Steemit when posting; and the private active key for wallet related transactions. \n\n In the New Steemians project, we help new members of steem by education and resteeeming their articles. Get your articles resteemed too for maximum exposure. You can learn more about it here: https://steemit.com/introduceyourself/@gaman/new-steemians-project-launch ",
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      "body": "Congratulations @blackswandar! You have completed some achievement on Steemit and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :\n\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/firstvote.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@blackswandar) You made your First Vote\n\n<sub>_Click on the badge to view your Board of Honor._</sub>\n<sub>_If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word_ `STOP`</sub>\n\n\n\n**Do not miss the [last post](https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-world-cup-contest-russia-vs-saudi-arabia) from @steemitboard!**\n\n---\n**Participate in the [SteemitBoard World Cup Contest](https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-world-cup-contest-collect-badges-and-win-free-sbd)!**\nCollect World Cup badges and win free SBD\nSupport the Gold Sponsors of the contest: [@good-karma](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=good-karma&approve=1) and [@lukestokes](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=lukestokes.mhth&approve=1)\n\n---\n\n> Do you like [SteemitBoard's project](https://steemit.com/@steemitboard)? Then **[Vote for its witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1)** and **get one more award**!",
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