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      "parent_permlink": "ico",
      "author": "bitcoinchaser",
      "permlink": "boosting-aggregate-demand-the-old-keynesian-adage-and-how-it-took-over-ethereum",
      "title": "Boosting Aggregate Demand: The Old Keynesian Adage And How It Took Over Ethereum",
      "body": "![Boost Aggregate Demand Through ICOs Featured.JPG](https://steemitimages.com/DQmc1jZnEx8UCJJoSF49hhQXqmDXUwfdEseSnUKzLWhK7UN/Boost%20Aggregate%20Demand%20Through%20ICOs%20Featured.JPG)\n**Looking at how the price of Ether skyrocketed this year, one can only wonder who in their right minds would have thought this could be possible?** The answer might be too abstract to fathom, but it is staring at us from the depths of our college economics text books. If John Maynard Keynes were alive today, and would have gotten into crypto, he would have been able to predict that the Ethereum economy would was about to grow manifold, and that the price of Ether would advance accordingly. From a Keynesian perspective, ICOs are the shovels of the Ethereum economy, and to make it grow, the only thing needed is to boost aggregate demand with a lot of hype and fanfare. \n\n# Keynes at Work! #\n\nThis effectively means having an ICO dig a hole during the day, while having another ICO dig even deeper one at night. [This is not to say that all ICOs are useless](http://bitcoinchaser.com/ico-hub/useless-ethereum-token), but there is a fair share of them that are. Some have decimated investors’ funds, nevertheless, the economic machine that is the Ethereum network keeps growing. Its market cap – GDP anyone? – is second only to that of bitcoin, and has no immediate contenders in the short-term, lest the Keynesian ICO bubble bursts.\n\n# Hayekians are looking at Keynesian ICO Investors and Hodling! #\n\nAlas, there is no such thing as a free lunch. That is the other old adage in economics that serves as a counter argument to boosting aggregate demand. While Keynesian economics boost aggregate demand for Ether through ICOs, Hayekians are thinking about that free lunch hard and long, realizing that resources are scarce and using them wisely is necessary to ensure long-term economic health. \n\nEthereum is having none of that, and right now it seems unstoppable. [Warnings of an ICO bubble](http://bitcoinchaser.com/ico-hub/sec-ico-regulation) come and go without a bubble actually bursting, leading many to think that they can live in this Keynesian experiment forever. Those who are issuing the warnings, are probably staying out of it, hodling their coins and waiting for the bubble to burst to pick up some cheap(er) Ether.\n\n# Keynes vs Hayek: The Crypto Version #\n\nAs the aggregate demand experiment continues on Ethereum, one can only ponder upon the abstract ways in which the whole Keynes vs Hayek arguments are playing out in the world of cryptocurrency. The battle rages on, decades after the iconic economists who shaped economic thought and the fate of almost every country on earth during the twentieth century, died. Now it is up for us to decide if we go full Keynes on the aggregate demand theory on Ethereum, buying and holding Ether – or even participating in ICOs – or if we go the way of Hayek, considering the perils of the free lunch, and choose to hodl our other coins.",
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      "author": "steemitboard",
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      "body": "Congratulations @bitcoinchaser! You have completed some achievement on Steemit and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :\n\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x80/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/voted.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@bitcoinchaser) Award for the number of upvotes received\n\nClick on any badge to view your own Board of Honor on SteemitBoard.\nFor more information about SteemitBoard, click [here](https://steemit.com/@steemitboard)\n\nIf you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word `STOP`\n\n> By upvoting this notification, you can help all Steemit users. Learn how [here](https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/http-i-cubeupload-com-7ciqeo-png)!",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "Thanks! Always be wise :) Cool GIF!",
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      "memo": "Do you want your post to be upvoted by a minimum of 200 users and get your post resteemd to nearly 6000 followers? Just sent 2 steem or 2 steemdollar to jones420 and put your post in memo. 200 upvotes? To good to be true? Just take a look at https://steemit.com/@jones420 Have a nice day and steem on!"
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      "body": "[![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmebYoSLMeCbXMWtvXM6erSUtYho4qTC58AVNGNk2RGewj/image.png)](https://steemit.com/@fitzgibbon)|[![ezgif.com-resize.gif](https://steemitimages.com/DQmWeTfRCbp9fi2LHsnVoNxLNcttGW1L1F1V1Ug4hPkYnoq/ezgif.com-resize.gif)](https://steemit.com/@fitzgibbon)<br> Loved your post, upvoted! Never worry, but be wise!",
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      "parent_permlink": "bitcoin",
      "author": "bitcoinchaser",
      "permlink": "bitcoin-cash-monetary-expansion-by-other-means",
      "title": "Bitcoin Cash: Monetary Expansion By Other Means",
      "body": "![Bitcoin Cash Monetary Expansion By Other Means.JPG](https://steemitimages.com/DQmdtjmdoE4pQgffXoURG1nVZk9rerpoTg7wbdvUav9gUTP/Bitcoin%20Cash%20Monetary%20Expansion%20By%20Other%20Means.JPG)\n\n**Cryptocurrency markets are awash with new currencies and tokens.** Somehow it seems that buyers can’t get enough crypto, and there is always space for more. This somehow shatters the notion that the space that bitcoin still dominates, has a fixed supply of currency. To clarify, looking at Satoshi Nakamoto’s white paper, money supply was not a key concern. Satoshi focused on a peer to peer trustless money system well suited for the internet. Nevertheless, a considerable number of bitcoin users, tend to express their disdain for the inflationary features of fiat currency, and they have a point. Interestingly enough, the world of cryptocurrency produces monetary expansion by other means, which cryptocurrency enthusiasts should consider as a potential threat. \n\n## The Bitcoin Cash Case ##\n\nThis monetary expansion doesn’t always come directly from ICOs, which have taken a course of their own and in many cases, create something else other than a cryptocurrency. The expansion is rather coming from airdrops and now forks. The most salient example of this monetary expansion by other means, [in this case a fork, is Bitcoin Cash or BCH](http://bitcoinchaser.com/free-bitcoins/bitcoin-cash-fork-free-bitcoin) – BCC has also been used as a ticker symbol. Since bitcoin might fork again in the future, resulting in the creation of a new coin, then the BCH example is one we should consider.\n\n## Monetary Expansion by Ways of a Fork ##\n\nRegardless of the opinions each bitcoin holder has regarding BCH, all of those who split their coins and effectively got “free money”, should recognize that forking is a form of monetary expansion. It might be different than the type of monetary expansion that fiat currencies experience, but the effects can be similar. If bitcoin for example, forks beyond the point at which the markets tolerate the ensuing monetary expansion, its value will be eroded. \n\nThe perception of the market is that the supply of bitcoin is 21 million coins, regardless of Satoshi Nakamoto’s focus on the trustless, peer to peer internet money aspect of bitcoin on the white paper. This means that forking and creating some of the closest substitutes possible for bitcoin, may eventually blur the lines for the people coming into the markets. The result may be the loss of value, due to the perception that there are 21 million BTC, but in the future, there will be another 21 or even 42 million similar coins, that are close enough to the original.\n\n## Demand High Enough to Mop Up Excess Supply ##\n\nSo far, with the BCH fork, it seems that there was enough demand to mop up excess supply. That coupled with other features, resulted in a cryptocurrency market cap expansion of about 9 billion USD on BTC and an additional 4.9 billion USD on BCH – according to the price at time of press, [and despite the price crash a week ago](http://bitcoinchaser.com/bitcoin-cash-crash) – in just 10 days. That is about half the market cap of Ethereum, and it was created in 10 days! Users must recognize that demand is not guaranteed to mop up excess supply every time. The price of bitcoin following another fork in the future, might not react as it did this time around either. SegWit lock-in and activation will only take place once, and next time the market might not have enough positive prospects to boost the price of bitcoin following a fork. \n\nMoreover, the fact that a considerable part of this new wealth seems to be fabricated out of thin air in a matter of days should also concern those who dislike the fiat monetary system. There are many reasons why bitcoin is a suitable alternative to the fiat system, which is a system that is dominated by middlemen and trust in a central authority. But cryptocurrency enthusiasts should take a deeper look at the excess that these authorities incurred in just about 9 years ago, and understand that monetary expansion by other means, can be as dangerous as inflationary monetary expansion is in the fiat system. That is true even if the airdrops and the forks might create an additional short-term incentive to buy bitcoin. Assuming that demand will always mop up additional cryptocurrencies stemming from forks and airdrops is perilous.",
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      "parent_author": "bigfatmyths",
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      "body": "Thanks! We think a $10k by the end of the year scenario, fueled by FOMO could increase volatility significantly. Think about all those mainstream investors with a lot of muscle pulling in and out based on institutions like Goldman Sachs providing $4k or $5k predictions that turn out to be conservative. Add bot trading to the mix and you are in for a ride!",
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      "body": "Thanks!  We definitely hope it hits 5k. There's probably going to be some turbulence ahead with BIP148 and SegWit...",
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      "body": "I like this breakdown. Thank you. I've heard as high as 10K Bitcoin this year. It would seem these guys could easily add that to the market cap along with a global FOMO frenzy that would accompany it.  What do you think of that scenario?",
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      "body": "Good post. I think $4-5k is likely to be on the cards by the end of the year , early into 2018",
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      "title": "Bitcoin At $4,000 Says Goldman Sachs’ Head Of Technical Strategy",
      "body": "![Bitcoin At 4000 Goldman Sachs Featured.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmUYrnNC9UrviR4ZVkQmXoir1zeWvnBq92ZhhK4nwZVTAf/Bitcoin%20At%204000%20Goldman%20Sachs%20Featured.jpg)\n\n**Let’s take a minute to analyze that headline.** The head of Technical Strategy at Goldman Sachs – Sheba Jafari – said [bitcoin could hit $4,000 and increase its market cap by around 50%](http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/03/goldman-sachs-says-bitcoin-could-rise-another-50-percent.html). That however, is not the most interesting part about the headline or this story. Many might have missed the nuances of this story completely, and it is understandable. Bitcoin has never even gone above the $3,000 USD mark, so $4,000 draws a lot of attention away from the fact that the head of technical strategy at a company like Goldman Sachs the one who made the prediction. This tells us more than what we think; it is a hint.\n\nThis story is hinting at the nature of the money flowing into bitcoin. We might be seeing more money from hedge funds and mainstream investors moving into cryptocurrencies than we think. That has an inherent effect on how bitcoin prices might behave in the future. After all it is very difficult to establish if these new players will behave like the average cryptocurrency enthusiast – the typical ‘hodler’ so to speak. The safest assumption is that these players will bring their old investment outlook together with them into the world of cryptocurrency, behaving radically different than the classical enthusiast.\n\n# So, $4,000, Really? #\n\nWe don’t know how much of Goldman Sachs’ money is invested in bitcoin. We know that [the investment banking giant has invested in bitcoin-centric companies](http://bitcoinchaser.com/circle-closes-funding-led-by-goldman-sachs), but we do not know what its exposure to bitcoin is. Nevertheless, we do know that its employees are making bitcoin price predictions – bold ones too. We also know that a player like Goldman Sachs and other institutional investors can easily become cryptocurrency market shapers without investing too much. Therefore the $4,000 USD per coin note on that report can well become the center of gravity for mainstream/institutional investors. \n\n# Just Entertain this Scenario #\n\nWith a clear anchor, based on the weight that this piece of analysis might have among mainstream investors, we might start seeing even more institutional money flowing in. More mainstream investors will start considering the risks of investing in an asset that they can buy at a 35% discount according to Goldman Sachs’ predictions. If and when bitcoin starts coming close to that $4,000 USD center of gravity that can attract mainstream investors, they are going to pull out and take their profits. \n\nThe corollary to the scenario above has to do with all the other market forces that shape the decision making of these mainstream investors. We must keep in mind that [unusually low interest rates created unprecedented liquidity and dwindling returns](http://bitcoinchaser.com/ico-hub/sec-ico-regulation). But that situation is coming to an end. Mainstream investors know exactly how higher rates will affect the returns on the assets in which they are used to invest. Enough of these investors will rather go into a lower risk asset if higher interest rates make yields more attractive. That coupled with the $4,000 USD expected mark, may create an environment in which these investors decide to pull their money out of bitcoin well below Goldman Sachs’ predicted bitcoin price. \n\n# Don’t Lose Sight of the Trees or the Forest! #\n\nIt is possible to infer then that the price of bitcoin might not reach the $4,000 USD mark that Goldman Sachs forecasts, precisely because they forecasted it in an environment of rising interest rates. This conclusion however is based on heavy assumptions. Bitcoin might reach $5,000 USD by the end of the year, rendering the work of Sheba Jafari and our own analysis, completely irrelevant. That is because there are many more variables that can affect the price of bitcoin this year, such as [SegWit implementation and the BIP148 quagmire](http://bitcoinchaser.com/survive-bip-148). Nevertheless, that strengthens the point this analysis piece stems from: don’t focus solely on the price prediction; consider who made the prediction and their own assumptions, before you get swept by bitcoin price euphoria!",
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      "body": "@@ -208,16 +208,17 @@\n date.** \n+%5B\n Bancor r\n@@ -237,24 +237,82 @@\n  million USD\n+%5D(http://bitcoinchaser.com/ico-hub/bancor-sets-ico-record)\n , and ever s\n@@ -1325,16 +1325,17 @@\n iquid %E2%80%93 \n+%5B\n Ether tr\n@@ -1379,16 +1379,66 @@\n is point\n+%5D(http://bitcoinchaser.com/gdax-ether-price-crash)\n  %E2%80%93 and e\n@@ -5456,16 +5456,17 @@\n  token. \n+%5B\n Central \n@@ -5525,16 +5525,69 @@\n year ago\n+%5D(http://bitcoinchaser.com/ethereum-without-dao-fork)\n , create\n@@ -7073,16 +7073,17 @@\n er all, \n+%5B\n bitcoin \n@@ -7195,16 +7195,77 @@\n  systems\n+%5D(http://bitcoinchaser.com/economic-equalizer-called-bitcoin)\n . Those \n",
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      "title": "The Myth of Cryptocurrency Liquidity",
      "body": "![Liquidity Featured.jpg](https://steemitimages.com/DQmNTHLr1GXgzFGjWRnwvy2FiuxNHHi4eUmagAmQ5qgi8uM/Liquidity%20Featured.jpg)\n**A little over ten days ago, Bancor became the biggest crowd-funding project to date.** Bancor raked in $150 million USD, and ever since, experts have been criticizing many aspects of the project. Smart contract and coding issues aside – Experts like Emin Gün Sirer, Phil Daian and Udi Wertheimer have great insights on those – the economic fundamentals that underpin the project have also come under attack. That criticism focuses on the issue of liquidity, exposing either a gap in conceptual understanding of liquidity, or the need to adapt the term to the world of cryptocurrency. Both gaps seem to create a cryptocurrency liquidity myth, which needs to be addressed.\n\n## **Is Cryptocurrency Liquidity Achievable?** ##\n\nTo tackle these gaps, it is necessary to define liquidity. According to Investopedia, “liquidity describes the degree to which an asset or security can be quickly bought or sold in the market without affecting the asset's price.” Following that definition, it is possible to conclude that there are *no* liquid cryptocurrencies in the market at all. Bancor tokens are as illiquid as many other tokens; Ether is illiquid – Ether trading woes yesterday on GDAX prove this point – and even bitcoin is illiquid. Selling any of those assets *quickly* without having their *prices affected* is a difficult mission to accomplish. \n\nRelative to fiat, or relative to the US Dollar to be more precise, cryptocurrencies are not nearly as liquid as we think they are. Bitcoin, which is the most liquid cryptocurrency, can lose hundreds of dollars in price before a user can unload it if there is a massive sale. This translates into losses of tens of percentage points for holders. But liquidity like many other such concepts, is relative; cryptocurrency liquidity *is* achievable to varying degrees and through different approaches. It all depends on the vantage point.\n\n## **How do we Achieve Cryptocurrency Liquidity?** ##\n\nIf we compare the role of bitcoin and Ether in cryptocurrency markets, to the role of the US Dollar and the Euro in traditional markets, then cryptocurrency liquidity can be defined under a more limited framework. If bitcoin is the reserve currency of cryptocurrency markets, and Ether is the second choice after it, then it makes sense to talk about how liquid a token on the Ethereum network is. It is possible to then compare the liquidity of that token to the liquidity of another comparable asset that is not on the Ethereum network.\n\nWithin this context, considering that Bancor has a current market cap of $150 million USD, any cryptocurrency or token that is smaller than that would be less liquid than Bancor. Additionally, Bancor tokens have a 20% Ether backing, which means that their desirability in terms of liquidity should be higher than those that do not have that kind of backing. In other words, Bancor achieved an unprecedented level of cryptocurrency liquidity from the very beginning. Therefore, Bancor is positioned – ceteris paribus – to achieve the goals it set out for its token insofar as liquidity goes.\n\n## **The Liquidity Devil is in the Details** ##\n\nThe level of cryptocurrency liquidity that Bancor has, *is* relative. If there is a massive run on the token or any other token under it, its price will plummet and that 20% reserve will be wiped out in minutes. The point is that in the cryptocurrency market, any other comparable token or any new token, would be wiped out *faster* under similar circumstances. In a sense, Bancor provides a stop-gap mechanism to new tokens, while allowing market forces to seek a balance hopefully above that mechanism.\n\n## **Why is Bancor Criticized then?** ##\n\nThis makes Bancor an *interventionist* token because it seeks to play a role in cryptocurrency liquidity when market forces fall below its stop-gap mechanism. This is the concept, the implementation via code and smart contracts is a different story. Nevertheless, critics tend to conflate the technical part that deals with implementation with the economic theory on which Bancor is based. They then extend this interpretation to cryptocurrency markets, glossing over the many layers of cryptocurrency liquidity that really exist there.\n\nThe debate then becomes one that should be taking place in 2 different spheres instead. The first sphere, deals with the myth of cryptocurrency liquidity; the second sphere deals with economic theory. Purists or more orthodox experts will never accept any kind of central authority intervening in a blockchain. In other words, they believe in the purest form of free market economics there is. In their minds, the “hidden hand of the market” takes care of everything. In such a world, Keynesian economics have little or no room to take root. Bancor is a purely Keynesian approach that requires a lot of intervention in the market to ensure a certain level of liquidity *if* there is a run on a token.\n\n## **Short and Long-Term Cryptocurrency Liquidity** ##\n\nTaking a step back, and lowering the resolution on the debate to see more of the forest and less of the trees, there is a glaring detail in this debate that many miss. Interventionism is in the DNA of the Ethereum network, which Bancor used to launch its token. Central authority intervention after the DAO attack about a year ago, created what we know today as Ethereum, and gave way to the continuation of the old chain through Ethereum Classic. This split is at the core of this economic outlook; Ethereum took the Keynesian approach to intervene when markets – or code – failed. Now it enjoys *greater liquidity* than Ethereum Classic.\n\nThe degree to which Ethereum liquidity might be greater than that of Ethereum Classic, is fluid. In the short term, Ethereum’s willingness to intervene and reverse transactions, attracted investment from big corporations. That is what made ETH more liquid than ETC. In the long run, the roles might be reversed, precisely because letting the markets run their course without intervening could be the ultimate cryptocurrency liquidity booster. \n\n## **Cryptocurrency Liquidity is Paradoxical** ##\n\nCryptocurrency liquidity is thus too relative to be reliable for many investors. Bancor could serve to reassure some of those investors, generating in turn more investment and greater liquidity, at least in terms of Ether. The next question would be how will prospective investors who are still on the fence, would react to a multi-layered cryptocurrency liquidity scheme. After all, in many cases it is necessary to go into bitcoin, to buy Ether, to buy the next token. If none of those assets is liquid enough in terms of USD, and each layer is less liquid than the next, getting more investors in will be challenging.\n\nThe solution might be to let the markets do their job, after all, bitcoin enjoys current liquidity levels because of the degree to which it is integrated with traditional economic systems. Those economic systems in turn, rely heavily on the kind of Keynesian economics that bitcoin was built to provide an alternative to. This brings the debate back to where the spheres of the myth of cryptocurrency liquidity and economic theory meet; it also uncovers the paradox that rears its head every time we discuss the virtues and shortcomings of cryptocurrency. To be able to offer a viable alternative to a system successfully, you must embrace it. \n\n## **Yes, but…** ##\n\nThis is how bitcoin built on the shortcomings of the traditional economic system, but to gain the degree of adoption and liquidity it enjoys now, it had to embrace elements of the system it sought to reform. To move from the Bitcoin Economy into the traditional economy, most mechanisms employ KYC requirements. Governments are also regulating the gateways into the Bitcoin Economy. This has made it more accessible to more people, thus more liquid. \n\nCryptocurrency liquidity can move from the realm of the mythical into reality only if it embraces elements from the systems it seeks to change. That is also why even the most purist of blockchain technology believers, measures wealth in fiat currency. Ultimately they understand that in order to realize their earnings they *must* liquidate their digital assets, and hope that in the process, the asset’s price doesn’t change too much.",
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