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      "title": "【数据猎手俱乐部214】“In math we trust”",
      "body": "每周一、三、五晚上20：46，我们一起探索数字财富。\n\n1.今日数据\n\n多头数量：26936\n空头数量：39844\n多空比率：68%\n恐慌指数：11\nBTC价格：3438\n火币矿池算力：1350\nBTC最大跌幅：83.18%\nXRP最大跌幅：92.63%\nETH最大跌幅：94.2%\nLTC最大跌幅：93.26%\nEOS最大跌幅：92.97%\nBTC上次熊市最大跌幅：83.69%\nXRP上次熊市最大跌幅：94.73%\nLTC上次熊市最大跌幅：97.21%\n\n2.抑郁\n\n著名物理学家张首晟教授，于美国时间12月1日去世，终年55岁。\n\n张教授除了没有获得诺贝尔奖外，几乎拿遍了物理学界的所有大奖。他第一个预言并验证了量子自旋霍尔效应，并在2017年证实了“天使粒子”的存在。\n\n张教授还将科学界常用的第一性原理向普通民众推广。对于比特币和区块链，他也十分看好，曾提出“in math we trust”的观点，这是我们信任比特币的最底层逻辑。他还认为区块链沉淀的数据最终将助力人工智能实现突破。\n\n然而，就是这样一个学富五车又十分亲民的科学泰斗，却骤然辞世。网上报道，根据张教授家人和斯坦福大学物理系的电子邮件通信得知，张教授此前一直在和抑郁症做斗争。\n\n一个人看到了量子的深处，理解了大多数事物运行的道理，却怎么还是会抑郁呢？\n\n3.阴谋\n\n网上还流传着一种说法，认为张教授的突然离世是一种阴谋。\n\n张教授还创立了丹华资本，投资了许多美国的高科技初创企业，而出资人大多数都是中国的企业家。丹华资本近期被列入了美国301调查报告，该报告指责中资风投帮助中国政府转移美国高新技术。\n\n而12月1日，华为CFO孟晚舟在加拿大被美国通知逮捕，此前，据称孟晚舟和张教授正好在阿根廷相见。\n\n这就是一种典型的阴谋论。但我们却根本无法分辨清楚事实的真相。贸易战、华为、美国最前沿的科技，在这个时间点上，任何事情都有可能发生。\n\n如果阴谋论是事实，我们足可以想见局势是有多么的复杂。一位德高望重的前沿科学家竟然已不能自保！我们还能相信哪个中心化的机构呢？\n\n愿天堂没有抑郁，愿天堂没有阴谋，只有真理和美好的光芒。\n\n“In math we trust”将会成为许多人的警世箴言。\n\n\n数据猎手俱乐部：\n区块链时代，互联网上将会有越来越多真实、免费但零散的数据，它们之中潜藏着巨大的商业和社会价值。我们个人的投资、决策以及行动实际上都需要可靠的数据作指导。\n为此，我发起创建数据猎手俱乐部，期待以分布式共建的方式为俱乐部的成员提供系统、可靠和有意义的数据服务。我们将开发自己的数据收集和分析工具，探索数据整理和分析的方法。在未来，我们还将构建自己的商业模式和通证经济模型。\n前期我们将主要在知识星球内探讨，欢迎感兴趣的朋友们加入星球。前100名创世猎手们将可以免费加入星球，100名之后我们会开始收费，并将收费的一部分用于回馈创世猎手和有较大贡献的猎手，另外一部分将用于产品开发和商业模式的构建。因为付费知识星球起始至少50元，所以，您付费加入后，请加我的微信并注明“创世数据猎手”，我将费用退还给您。\n我的微信号：yuanke2049\n知识星球链接：https://t.zsxq.com/ZBQRVjU\n请打开微信扫描下方二维码加入数据猎手俱乐部。",
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      "body": "每天20：46，我们一起探索数字财富。\n\n1.今日数据\n\n多头数量：27831\n空头数量：36117\n多空比率：77%\n恐慌指数：19\nBTC价格：3923\n火币矿池算力：1245\nBTC最大跌幅：81.62%\nXRP最大跌幅：92.63%\nETH最大跌幅：92.79%\nLTC最大跌幅：92.53%\nEOS最大跌幅：90.34%\nBTC上次熊市最大跌幅：83.69%\nXRP上次熊市最大跌幅：94.73%\nLTC上次熊市最大跌幅：97.21%\n\n2.劝退行情\n\nBTC作为数字黄金，它的价格发现远远还没有进行完毕，现在仅仅只有几千万人相对熟悉数字货币，真正认识到BTC是数字黄金的可能更少。\n\n从上一次的最高点1000美元多一点到这一次最高点近20000美元，短短四年时间，即使13年买在最高点，在去年的高点附近也有十几倍的涨幅。这种增值速度足可以碾压大部分的资产和生意了。那么下一次高点会到多少呢？谁也无法预测。所以，认可还会有下一次高点的，又有实力的庄家或资本家，一定会发动劝退行情。\n\n劝退行情已经进行到水深火热之中了，目前价格从最高点已经跌去了近82%，离上一次的最大跌幅84%已经不远了。很多韭菜已经被劝退了，还有一些投机者、矿工和没有信仰的投资者估计也已经被劝退了。\n\n3.劝退矿工\n\n哪些人拥有最多的BTC呢？除了早期的屯币大户，估计就是长年累月挖矿的大矿工了。\n\n熊市中有很多大户和庄家做空。从高点一路做下来累积了大量的币，这些币的兑付是需要便宜筹码的。场外想要入场的资本也需要便宜筹码。便宜的筹码从哪里来呢？割韭菜、夺大户、杀矿工。\n\n韭菜自不用说，该投降的应该已经差不多了。有些大户在利润还可以的时候估计已经抛掉了不少。大户不代表就不会在高位接盘，有些高位接盘的大户估计也开始犹豫是否要斩仓了。现在的主要目标，只剩下了矿工。\n\n很多矿工手中应该还有不少的BTC，庄家们正在算计矿工。首先，是要让中小矿工们关机。在BTC价格下跌到3600多的那天，这种情况已经被测试了一次，不仅有多家媒体报到了矿机按斤卖，而且我监测到了火币矿池当天BTC的算力接近被腰斩。随后，价格回升，火币矿池的算力也跟着回升。可见，3600多的价格很有可能是很多中小矿工的关机价。\n\n但庄家们的主要目标应该还是部分大矿工。价格到底低到多少会让大矿工们关机并将手中的BTC抛售呢？这一轮我们基本还没有见证到。庄家们杀矿工还有一个目的，那就是他们可以自己挖矿。我们假设BTC仍然会有上一次大熊市的跌幅，即84%，那么此时BTC的价格大约为3180美元。让我们拭目以待。\n\n\n数据猎手俱乐部：\n区块链时代，互联网上将会有越来越多真实、免费但零散的数据，它们之中潜藏着巨大的商业和社会价值。我们个人的投资、决策以及行动实际上都需要可靠的数据作指导。\n为此，我发起创建数据猎手俱乐部，期待以分布式共建的方式为俱乐部的成员提供系统、可靠和有意义的数据服务。我们将开发自己的数据收集和分析工具，探索数据整理和分析的方法。在未来，我们还将构建自己的商业模式和通证经济模型。\n前期我们将主要在知识星球内探讨，欢迎感兴趣的朋友们加入星球。前100名创世猎手们将可以免费加入星球，100名之后我们会开始收费，并将收费的一部分用于回馈创世猎手和有较大贡献的猎手，另外一部分将用于产品开发和商业模式的构建。因为付费知识星球起始至少50元，所以，您付费加入后，请加我的微信并注明“创世数据猎手”，我将费用退还给您。\n我的微信号：yuanke2049\n知识星球链接：https://t.zsxq.com/ZBQRVjU\n请打开微信扫描下方二维码加入数据猎手俱乐部。",
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      "body": "每天20：46，我们一起探索数字财富。\n\n1.今日数据\n\n多头数量：26358\n空头数量：34550\n多空比率：76%\n恐慌指数：12\nBTC价格：4014\n火币矿池算力：955\nBTC最大跌幅：81.62%\nXRP最大跌幅：92.63%\nETH最大跌幅：92.79%\nLTC最大跌幅：92.53%\nEOS最大跌幅：90.08%\nBTC上次熊市最大跌幅：83.69%\nXRP上次熊市最大跌幅：94.73%\nLTC上次熊市最大跌幅：97.21%\n\n2.劝退行情\n\n前面我们有一篇小文章讨论过，这一波行情叫劝退行情。现在再来看，应该能领会到它真正的意图了。\n\n我倾向于认为，目前处于劝退行情的第2波到第3波之中，我认为我们还没有摆脱劝退行情。会不会有第4波和第5波，要看第3波结束后的情况。\n\n什么时候第3波会结束？我们从上面的数据大致可以看出一些端倪。\n\n3.为什么要劝退\n\n首先，资本市场本身就是嗜血的。这里就是一个刀光血影的世界，那些光着双脚拿根木棍就上场厮杀的，是第一波就要被劝退的。\n\n第二，币圈牛市的造富效应太过猛烈。上一波赚到大钱的人，大部分都有被劝退的需求。\n\n第三，正因为币圈牛市的造富效应太过猛烈，场外的部分嗜血资金也正在俯视眈眈。这些嗜血的钱是不会进来抬轿的，最大的可能是，他们会先用尽手段绞杀尽可能多的还在场内的人，他们会让自己的竞争对手尽可能地少，会让自己拿到尽可能多的低价筹码。那么问题来了，到底要多低才能让他们满意呢？\n\n第四，熊市中庄家大部分都会做空。做空的兑付是需要低价筹码的。\n\n第五，终极劝退。也就是币圈终究就像黄粱一梦，是要归为泡影的。如果进行到这一步，那就是要将所有人劝退。不过目前，我仍然认为这种情况发生的可能性极小。因为去中心化、自由和财富对于许多人，特别是年轻人的吸引力实在是太强了。而且，世界经济旧的格局已定，发展陷入困境，世界需要改变。\n\n\n数据猎手俱乐部：\n区块链时代，互联网上将会有越来越多真实、免费但零散的数据，它们之中潜藏着巨大的商业和社会价值。我们个人的投资、决策以及行动实际上都需要可靠的数据作指导。\n为此，我发起创建数据猎手俱乐部，期待以分布式共建的方式为俱乐部的成员提供系统、可靠和有意义的数据服务。我们将开发自己的数据收集和分析工具，探索数据整理和分析的方法。在未来，我们还将构建自己的商业模式和通证经济模型。\n前期我们将主要在知识星球内探讨，欢迎感兴趣的朋友们加入星球。前100名创世猎手们将可以免费加入星球，100名之后我们会开始收费，并将收费的一部分用于回馈创世猎手和有较大贡献的猎手，另外一部分将用于产品开发和商业模式的构建。因为付费知识星球起始至少50元，所以，您付费加入后，请加我的微信并注明“创世数据猎手”，我将费用退还给您。\n我的微信号：yuanke2049\n知识星球链接：https://t.zsxq.com/ZBQRVjU\n请打开微信扫描下方二维码加入数据猎手俱乐部。",
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      "body": "每天20：46，我们一起探索数字财富。\n\n1.今日数据\n\n多头数量：27732\n空头数量：36251\n多空比率：76%\n恐慌指数：17\nBTC价格：4085\n火币矿池算力：1132\n\n2.多空图\n\nEOS过去一年的多空图。\n\n\n3.简略分析\n\n图中左坐标为EOS的价格标尺，红绿相间的曲线是EOS的价格走势。右坐标是多空的数量标尺，红色的曲线是空头的数量变化，绿色的曲线是多头的数量变化。底部是时间坐标，区间为17年12月至18年12月。\n\n从图中可以看出，EOS的多头数量从始至终一直都高于空头的数量。，即使是在熊市阶段也是如此。也许与EOS上线更晚有关，在4月份之前，无论是空头还是多头，总体的数量都不多。从4月开始，多头数量有了明显的上升，这与主网上线前的那一波拉升配合得十分明显。5月之后，随着整个币市进入熊市，EOS也结束了独立行情，开始步入漫长的熊市。然而我们可以看到，就算熊市进行到了今天，EOS的价格也一步一步地走低，但是EOS的多头数量却一直都没有明显地减少。在8、9月份，随着价格滑向一个相对的低点，空头数量飙升。在横盘接近尾部的11月初，空头数量一直在减少。11月底的大跌，空头数量在短暂增加后，又继续下滑。\n\nEOS的多空数量很有意思，特别是最近，随着价格的一步步下滑，多头数量变化不大，而空头数量却急剧地减少。我猜测可能的原因是，EOS仍然是散户的行情，至少对于大的，有经验的机构来说，EOS还没有被他们纳入期货交易的主流。\n\n\n数据猎手俱乐部：\n区块链时代，互联网上将会有越来越多真实、免费但零散的数据，它们之中潜藏着巨大的商业和社会价值。我们个人的投资、决策以及行动实际上都需要可靠的数据作指导。\n为此，我发起创建数据猎手俱乐部，期待以分布式共建的方式为俱乐部的成员提供系统、可靠和有意义的数据服务。我们将开发自己的数据收集和分析工具，探索数据整理和分析的方法。在未来，我们还将构建自己的商业模式和通证经济模型。\n前期我们将主要在知识星球内探讨，欢迎感兴趣的朋友们加入星球。前100名创世猎手们将可以免费加入星球，100名之后我们会开始收费，并将收费的一部分用于回馈创世猎手和有较大贡献的猎手，另外一部分将用于产品开发和商业模式的构建。因为付费知识星球起始至少50元，所以，您付费加入后，请加我的微信并注明“创世数据猎手”，我将费用退还给您。\n我的微信号：yuanke2049\n知识星球链接：https://t.zsxq.com/ZBQRVjU\n请打开微信扫描下方二维码加入数据猎手俱乐部。",
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