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      "title": "Comment reconnaitre un BULLRUN : Initiation à la théorie des vagues d'Elliott",
      "body": "# **La Théories des Vagues : Première entrée en matière**<h1>\n\n## Abstract<h1>\nCet article contient ma vision, compréhension et analyses du livre « The Elliott Waves principle : key to market principle ». Je ne rentrerai pas dans les détails de la théorie de manières exhaustives, je me concentrerai principalement les bases de la théorie et expliquerai en quoi elle peut être appliquée aux courbes des cours du marché récents des cryptomonnaies. \nPour de plus amples informations sur la théorie, ainsi qu’un approfondissement des notions abordée dans cet article veuillez-vous procurer directement le bouquin et le lire évidemment.\n\nA ma connaissance il n’est disponible qu’en anglais d’où ma démarche d’en traduire le propos auprès de la communauté FR des cryptomonnaies.\n\n*bien entendu le contenu de cet article ne doit en aucun cas être considéré comme des conseils financiers. Chacun est libre et responsable des utilisations qu’il ou elle veut faire de ses monnaies*.\n\n![Elliott wave book.jpg](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXzZPHu15MfaFWN1Y7AJ9MGxizLopxYFe5iQcB3yeMptT/Elliott%20wave%20book.jpg)\n\n## Introduction<h1>\n\nCela fait six mois que je m’intéresse aux marchés des cryptomonnaies. Oui c’est exact j’ai entendu parler du bitcoin lors du ATH (all time high) de janvier 2017. Depuis je fais tout mon possible pour mettre la main sur le maximum de crypto de qualités. Pour cela il est quasiment obligatoire de passer par des plateformes de trading, suivre les cours, set up des portefolios, faires des recherches sur les différentes blockchain etc…\n\nA titre indicatif sachez que je ne suis pas un daytrader. Je me considère comme un « swing trader » c’est-à-dire que je réalise mes trades d’un mois sur l’autres plutôt qu’au jour le jour.\nJ’ai aussi 50% de mon capital de crypto sous forme de Holding que je compte garder patiemment dans un wallet jusques en 2028.\n\nN’ayant aucune connaissance dans le domaine de la finance j’ai passé ces trois derniers mois à rattraper mon retard en autodidacte. Des nombreux matériaux disponibles pour apprendre le trading, une ressource à particulièrement retenu mon attention par son uniformité et sa simplicité d’application : La théorie des vagues de Ralph Nelson Elliott.\n\n## La métaphysique de la théorie des vagues<h1>\nRalph Nelson Elliott était un comptable professionnel qui a découvert et mis en place une forme d’outils analytique, aujourd’hui utilisé par les traders pour analyser et prévoir les tendances sur les marchés. Elliott a procédé en identifiant les comportements extrêmes dans la psychologie des investisseurs, les maximums et minimums des prix ainsi que bien d’autres facteurs collectifs.\n\nLe fondement de la théorie se base sur la supposition que le sentiment des investisseurs, ou psychologie des foules, oscille entre l’optimisme (bullish) et le pessimisme (bearish) dans une séquence ordonnée. C’est changements d’humeurs créent des paternes mis en évidence par la constante fluctuation des cours à toutes les échelles d’amplitudes et de temps.\n\nAprès de nombreuses années d’études des cours de différents marchés dont la bourse. Il en est arrivé à la conclusion que les prix sur le  marché décrivent régulièrement une série de différents paternes qui sont aujourd’hui appelé « Elliott waves » or « waves » (vagues). Elliot publia sa théorie sur le comportement des marchés dans un livre titré « The Wave Principle » en 1938.\n\n## La théorie des vagues<h1>\n\nLes vagues sont donc des paternes qui se succèdent en série, alternant entre tendance à la hausse et tendance à la baisse selon des motifs toujours reconnaissables et une hiérarchie construite en fractale.\n\n### Impulse<h1>\n\nLe mouvement le plus basique que l’on retrouve est celui présenté sur la figure ci-dessous.\n\n![1-1.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmWZzFarV3fpsFeWZ4ACeVYtcLMWERRZqjbsabphSPDuoR/1-1.png)\n\nCe mouvement est constitué de 5 mouvements créant 5 vagues que l’on numérotera de 1 à 5 pour l’explication. 3 mouvements dirigé à la hausse et 2 dirigés à la baisse la résultante des 5 mouvements étant une augmentation significative du prix car la particularité des mouvements 2 et 4 est qu’ils n’annulent jamais complètement les gains apportés par les mouvements 1 et 3.\n\nIl est important de noter que dans ce paterne le mouvement 2 ne retrace jamais complètement le mouvement 1. Il s’arrête généralement au 2/3 même si des exceptions et des cas particuliers existent.\n\nAussi dans un marché à forte tendance haussière (bull market) le mouvement 4 ne retrace jamais complètement jusqu’au sommet du mouvement 1.\n\nLa succession de ses 5 vagues est plutôt positive mais la progression n’est jamais linéaire, comme on le verra plus tard. C’est de ce schéma que nous viens l’expression populaire « 3 pas en avant 2 pas en arrière ».\n\nLa combinaison de ses 5 vagues successives créé le motif appelé « impulse » (impulsion).\n\nSi comme moi vous suivez de près le marché des cryptos vous savez déjà qu’une impulsion est toujours suivi d’un autre paterne de base dont je vais maintenant parler.\n\n### Correction<h1>\n\n![1-2.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmYchswwjpvvSt9q9kcQg4E1VrNmtLzpo6EjuTP7F7F6UL/1-2.png)\n\nLa correction est elle aussi constituée de plusieurs mouvements qui forment à leurs tours des vagues, 3 plus exactement (deux vers le bas et un vers le haut) numérotés par des lettres de *a* à *c*. \n\nLa correction dans un marché à forte tendance haussière a pour effet de diminuer le prix sans pour autant annuler complètement les gains générés par l’impulsion. (Le dernier mouvement *c* ne se termine pas en deçà du point de départ du premier mouvement 1).\n\nQuand on y regarde de plus près on se rend compte que la succession d’un impulse et d’une correction forme à leurs tours les fondements d’un mouvement (1) suivi d’un mouvement (2) d’un impulse à l’échelle plus large…\nC’est là qu’intervient la notion de « Fractale ».\n\n### La fractale<h1>\n\nLa figure ci-après est un zoom sur les traits 1 et 2 de la figure 1-2.\n\n![1-3.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmaNXhyhvtDUmEqbnM2QRV6YfeGhAFD7NdsThEZWZTZWJq/1-3.png)\n\nJe vais la faire court parce que je pense que les illustrations parle d’elles-mêmes. Je ne me lancerai pas non plus dans une explication de ce qu’est une fractale (peux être dans un autre article si demande il y a).\n\nPour faire simple chaque couple impulse + correction constituent les vagues 1 et 2 d’un impulse à une échelle plus large numéroté (1) et (2).  Et chaque impulse numéroter de (1) à (5) avec sa correction associée numérotée de (a) à (c), s’inscrira dans les deux premières vagues de l’impulse d’un mouvent à l’échelle supérieure numéroté [1] et [2]. C’est pourquoi on peut parler de motif en fractale.\n\n**Nb** : on utilisera des chiffres pour désigner les vagues d’un impulse et des lettres pour désigner les vagues d’une correction.\n\nBien sûr à cause de la nature fractale de ses motifs ont peut considérer que le mouvement 1 de la figure 1-1 étais lui-même constitué de 5 subdivisions…\n\nComment savoir alors quand un mouvement sera constitué de 5 mouvement et quand il en sera constitué de 3 ?\n\nPour cela il faut tenir compte de la tendance.\n\n### The trend<h1>\n\nEn règle générale on définit comme étant dans la tendance, le mouvement qui se dirige dans la même direction que la vague qu’il crée à l’échelle supérieur. Il est toujours composé de 5 vagues. La contre tendance elle est composée de 3 vagues. (Si si je t’assure accroche toi, regarde les schémas que j’ai partagé, cherche à reconnaitre les paternes).\n\nSur les marchés il existe 2 type de tendance qui généralement se succèdent alternativement :\n\n-\tLa tendance haussière (Bull market) : Dans un bull market, les impulsions sont constituées de 5 vagues dans le sens de l'augmentation et la correction de 3 vagues en sens inverse.\n-\tLa tendance baissière (Bear market) : Dans un bear market, les impulsions sont  constitué de 5 vagues dans le sens de la diminution et la correction de 3 vagues en sens inverse.\n\nRegardez le schéma ci-dessous pour vous aidez à vous représenter tout ça.\n\n![1-4.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeTy2eG9ZTVxarvTuRVaaQTnAN75iQCSfQQEWyL5ue6AU/1-4.png)\n\nA titre indicatif voilà un petit tableau récapitulatif des différentes échelles de la fractale décrites par Elliott. Je ne le commenterai pas puisque en tant que swing trader je ne m’intéresse qu’au mouvement les plus larges, pas ceux qui relève du jour, de l'heure, de la minute ou de la microseconde…\n\n![tableau.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVxJej2zhmdsuRhdR4La2B6iZtYvupfesu5Uqsve6jbMN/tableau.png)\n\nBon maintenant que vous avez les bases voyons quelques cas particuliers que je trouve intéressant. Pour plus de cas particulier et pour des cas concrets je vous renvoie au bouquin.\n\n## Cas particuliers<h1>\n\n### Les Extensions<h1>\n\nCet aspect là est très technique donc je le laisse à ceux qui voudront en apprendre plus et lire des livres sur le sujet.\nVoir PDF.\n\n### La troncation<h1> \n\n![1-12.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmZqZh1mXe7TMf7gNAN5Zypai2FQpzDZrxPh1MqLngvX8D/1-12.png)\n\nL’image ci-dessus par d’elle-même une troncation arrive quand la 5ème vague ne dépasse pas le maximum de la 3ème vague.\nJ’ajouterai simplement que Elliot admet un maximum de 3 troncations successives seulement avant de donner lieu à un changement de trend. Ce qui peut donner l’aspect dans certain cas que « the market is trading sideways » \n\n*Je n’ai pas encore assez d’expérience dans le secteur pour confirmer ou infirmer ces dires*.\n\n### Les triangles<h1> \n\n![1-15.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmc7TajUDMJJKiXZuxgDZVVqycD5WWLoSNRkSnyBKb2an5/1-15.png)\n\nPas grand-chose à dire dessus… Pour moi il s’agit d’une petite variante de la troncation.\nL’avantage c’est que ce motif est facilement reconnaissable. Et que la courbe vient tester la résistance ou le support à 3 reprise maximum. Un peu comme ce qui s’est passé en Juillet 2018 pour le bitcoin. Après on constate un changement de trend.\n\n\n## Conclusion <h1>\n\nJe dois tout de même insister sur un point. Bien que la théorie des vagues se conforme très bien à l’analyse technique des courbes rétroactivement et avec du recul, elle ne peut en aucun cas être utilisée pour prédire le comportement futur d’un marché. Pour la simple raison que bien que les vagues aient tendances à s’organiser en larges paternes les constatations de Nelson Elliott ne permettent pas de prédire la nature des vagues en amplitudes et dans le temps. Il n’a jamais traité non plus des causes qui peuvent être responsables de telles répétitions. \n\nPar mon expérience après six mois d’observance des différentes courbes en crypto, ma conviction personnelle est qu’au vu du fait que ces mêmes paternes soit retrouvés de façon ubiquitaire sur les différents marchés et de leurs organisations en fractales. Je suis obligé de croire à l’existence d’une sorte de conscience collective qui régirais les comportements humains à grande échelles, dans une certaine mesure.\n\nJe pense aussi que cette réalisation est applicable dans les autres domaines de la vie. Des périodes de bonheurs sont ponctuées de drames occasionnels mais qui ne vienne jamais complètement entraver la progression générale de l’individu. Les périodes de dépressions ne durent jamais éternellement, les Ages d’or non plus.\n\nNous avons pour habitude de dire « Après la pluie, le beau temps » ce qui illustre bien cet état de fait.\n\nComme conclusion je dirais que la théorie des vagues reste avant tout une théorie, elle n’a jamais été démontrée et ne peut en aucun cas rendre des comptes des comportements futur d’un marché donné. Il s’agit d’une observation  et interprétation empirique des différents marchés dans le temps. La théorie permet cependant de diminuer le stress ressenties face à certains mouvements sur les cours, grâce à une approche réflexive globale.\n\nSi cet article t’a apporté quelque chose,\n\nTu peux me laisser un TIP en TRX (TRONIX) à mon adresse : TSRWcQhpk12EP8AiBsayp6Ltd1HAoGjEtf\nJe les utiliserai pour voter pour des SR responsables et compétants qui permettrons de promouvoir le développement et l’adoption rapides des cryptomonnaie dans le monde.\n\nTu as maintenant plus de connaissance, agis librement et en conscience.\nGood investing,\n\n**Avinigo**\n\n\nRef : https://kupdf.net/download/the-elliott-waves-principles-frost-aj-amp-prechterrobert-r_59b82a3208bbc5a150894c77_pdf\n\nPS : si tu as des questions pose les en commentaires j’y répondrais au mieux.\n\n![upvotte.png](https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmVjwEwNdHDgoS1Skt5e6CwMwsKL3PDqTx29avDrmJqW2s/upvotte.png)",
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      "body": "Congratulations @avinigo! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@avinigo/birthday1.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 1 year!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@avinigo) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](http://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=avinigo)_</sub>\n\n\n**Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:**\n<table><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-witness-update-2019-05\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/http://i.cubeupload.com/7CiQEO.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-witness-update-2019-05\">SteemitBoard - Witness Update</a></td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemmeetupaachen/@steemitboard/steemitboard-to-support-the-german-speaking-community-meetups\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeoNp9iCaCfd2D6TqnWa3Aky2mU4Fm3xaSmjTM91YoNBS/image.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemmeetupaachen/@steemitboard/steemitboard-to-support-the-german-speaking-community-meetups\">SteemitBoard to support the german speaking community meetups</a></td></tr></table>\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "author": "partiko",
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      "body": "Hello @avinigo! This is a friendly reminder that you can **download Partiko today and start earning Steem** easier than ever before!\n\nPartiko is a fast and beautiful mobile app for Steem. You can login using your Steem account, browse, post, comment and upvote easily on your phone!\n\nYou can even **earn up to 3,000 Partiko Points per day**, and easily convert them into Steem token!\n\n**Download Partiko now using the link below to receive 1000 Points as bonus right away!**\n\nhttps://partiko.app/referral/partiko",
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