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      "title": "B2B #3 MACD",
      "body": "# B2B #3 (Back to Basics episode 3) : MACD\n\nMACD is a popular indicator to identify and confirm the trend. It is best to see the MACD of price chart before entering short/long position. \n\nMACD or Moving Average Convergence Divergence has 3 components:\n1. MACD line : it is calculated as (12 days EMA - 26 days EMA)\n2. Signal line : it is calculated as 9 days EMA\n3. histogram of difference between 2 lines. Since Signal line and MACD line will go over and under several time, the histogram will have both positive and negative bars, oscillating with the zero line.\n\nSee my earlier post for EMA calculation: https://steemit.com/trading/@aritra/b2b-2-back-to-basics-episode-2-moving-average \n\nHere is how we can make out the trend from the MACD:\n\n1. If the MACD line is above the signal line -> trend is bullish\n2. if the MACD line is below the signal line -> trend is bearish\n3. if the MACD line is above the zero line -> trend is bullish\n4. if the MACD line is below the zero line -> trend is bearish\n\nLet's see the BTC/USD chart with MACD indicator to understand it better.\n![MACD.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmTrJQEz7BicU1UAwD2GTjwvofqZYFiYXE2cfGoqtCBeCm/MACD.png)\n\nAs you can see, each bull and bear run can be confirmed by any of the above Indicators. \n\nPlease see your preferred chart for analyzing the trend.",
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      "title": "B2B #2 (Back to Basics, Episode 2) :  Moving Average",
      "body": "# Moving Average\nMoving average is a term for analyzing the overall price movement of a particular stock/bond/currency/CryptoCurrency. Moving average or MA is used for canceling out the noise in the price as well as determining the momentum of the market.\n\nDepending on the Calculations, there are 3 Major types of Moving Averages:\n\n1. SMA (Simple Moving Average)\n2. WMA (Weighted Moving Average)\n3. EMA (Exponential Moving Average)\n\nHere is how they are calculated:\nLet's say we want to calculate all 3 MA for a period of 5 days of the closing price of a stock.\nThe Stock Closing price of last 5 days in a week are : 5$, 4$, 3$, 6$ and 7$ respectively.\n\n1. SMA: closing price of the periods/ number of periods. For above case SMA = (5+4+3+6+7)/5 = 5\n\n2. WMA: (closing price of periods * weights of each period )/ total weight . The weight is more for latest price. For the current example: WMA = (5*1 + 4*2 + 3*3 +6*4 + 7*5) / (1+2+3+4+5)=5.4\n\n3. EMA: (today's Close * K) + EMA(Previous Day)*(1-K) ; where K=2/(intervals+1)\nFor this example:\nK_fri = 2/6=1/3\nEMA_fri = (7*1/3) + EMA_th * 2/3\nK_th = 2/5\nEMA_th = (6*2/5) + EMA_wed * 3/5\nK_wed = 2/4 =1/2\nEMA_wed = (3*1/2) + EMA_tue * 1/2\nK_tue = 2/3\nEMA_tue = (4*2/3) + EMA_mon * 1/3\nK_mon = 2/2 =1\nEMA_mon = 5 * 1\n\nSo, this Makes:\nEMA_mon= 5\nEMA_tue = 4.33\nEMA_wed= 3.665\nEMA_th= 4.599\nEMA_fri = 5.399\n\nSo, EMA = 5.399\n\nIf we observe, the SMA will give us generic idea of the market movement. WMA and EMA will give more tighter correlation of momentum and price action. See the picture of BTC/USDT chart for better understanding.\n\n![moving-average-example.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmes6pxvBuEgeWeqHMcGQz7cPRzCkJUbZZgbNQUkhoC2Mc/moving-average-example.png)\n\nSMA charting are great ways to confirm the market momentum. For example, if we see the SMA for 9 days and 20 days, we can confirm short term and mid term market directions. Notice that when we have a 9 day SMA crossing 20 days SMA from above to below, it really confirms the pullback. Similarly, if 9 days SMA is crossing 20 days SMA from below to above, it confirms the uptrend.\n\n![MA-9-20.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmY3LKTvDfqM78Ujva9YkV8x5ruNZX8tcYRSTXWJocp55X/MA-9-20.png)\n\nFor long term bull and bear run, look for 50 days and 200 days SMA. This number may vary depending on the market volatility. For example, for a highly volatile market like Crypto Currency, it makes more sense to use SMA for 9 days, 20 days and 50 days for short, mid and long term effects; but for a slow moving market like fiat currency SMA 20 days, 50 days and 200 days are more applicable.\n\nMoving average is a simple yet powerful tool for doing technical analysis. It is the base for 2 other important tools : MACD and Bollinger Band.\n\nSee you favorite chart's MA and try to find out the market momentum from it.",
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      "body": "Hello again, aritra!\n\nWhat do you make of this red candle? I believe the shadow isn't long enough to be considered a hammer. Am I reading it correctly?\n\n![](https://steemitimages.com/DQmb9wegxQWFVKpfqFDXLAFBv64mStFMLRSHsxGEDPwtxPa/image.png)",
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      "body": "Yes, it does. Many thanks. I've bookmarked this so I can study it better. I have to start paying attention to the trends a bit more. And try to get my feelings out of it, which is easier said than done.",
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      "body": "Candlestick pattens can work for any given time frame but best results are observed for 1D period. For example, say you feel, certain stock price might go up over a few weeks. It is best to observe the daily pattern of candlesticks. The momentum can be confirmed if any bullish pattern was observed lately (e.g. bullish engulfing). \n\nBut personally, I do not find it much help for hourly charts. Since the price does not move that much over an hour, it is difficult to predict the price/trend using only candlestick patterns.\n\nHope this answers your question.",
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      "body": "Thanks! I'm new to this. You use this for intraday trading. Right!? Or do these signals also work for longer trading periods...?",
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      "author": "aritra",
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      "title": "Candlestick basics",
      "body": "Hello, \n\nIt is never too late to revisit the basics. \n\n# ELI5 \n Candlestick chart pattern is most widely used charting technique. It gives the trader information about:\n1. open\n2. close\n3. high\n4. low\n5. overall movement about the specified period.\n\nTake a look into the image. \n![candlestick-basic.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmY8DYEbxpKZnMvx7NVnrbqDLx6PcRBBUHnzvH2rys37f4/candlestick-basic.png)\n\nThe gap between open and close is the main body. High and low points are the max and min price movement over the period. If open is at a higher price than close, it is bearish candle. Similarly, if close is higher than open it is a bullish candle.\n\nWe may see different types of candlesticks:\n1. long body : meaning price is moving heavily. If these continues, this means, market volatility is high.\n2. short/no body: very little price movement. If it has long shadow, it is called Doji.\n3. long shadow: Price has moved heavily but eventually it did not stay in that price due to market sentiment.\n\nPlease take a look into the candlestick pattern of any CryptoCurrency / Stock / Bond / Fiat Currency.\n\n# My top 5 Candlestick pattern\n\n Candlestick patterns that can confirm an ongoing trend or trend reversal. All though the patterns can be observed for any period of time, it is best to use 1D interval to predict/confirm the trend. Here are top 5 of my personal favorite candlestick patterns, that I use in my trading.\n\n1. Bullish Engulfing : preceding green candle engulfs previous black candle. This means, buyers are willing to buy past the selling price. This indicates that the bull run will start.\n\n2. Bearish Engulfing : preceding black candle engulfs previous green candle. This means, sellers are willing to sell past the buying price. This indicates that the bear run will start.\n\n3. hammer/hanging man : green/black body with shadow 3x of body. Its color does not matter. What matters is its placement. Placed at bottom/top determines the trend reversal. It means no matter, what the trend was, the overall price point did not stay at that. So the trend might reverse now.\n\n4. three black crows: 3 consecutive black candle stick. In a downtrend, it means the trend is likely to continue more. For an uptrend, it predicts, next could be a pullback.\n\n5. three white soldiers: 3 consecutive green candle stick. In an uptrend, it means the trend is likely to continue more. For a downtrend, it predicts, next could be a pullback.\n\n![candlestick-basic-examples-1.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQme9RABwRTyZUQvnKmtDT8FYN7g5dnroVmn2SeAdwMz5Tf/candlestick-basic-examples-1.png)\n\n![candlestick-basic-examples-2.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmTuHdasRabphABzx1VQxqsQA8Jjx5TwEAkJ4u1tL6LaAh/candlestick-basic-examples-2.png)\nSee the examples of BTC/USD chart. Please find the above 5 candlestick patterns and do calculated trade based on it. Know that all these candlesticks are based on probability but for the most part, it holds true.\n\n\nIf you want to read more about different types of Candlesticks, you can read: **\"Bloomberg Visual Guide to Candlestick Charting\"** by *Michael C. Thomsett*",
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      "body": "I could not agree with you more on this, a stable currency is a reflection of a stable ecosystem. I think, when Bitcoin gets adopted as a global money, then we will see more people working on stabilizing it. As of now, since all cryptocurrency is measured w.r.t. USD, it is very difficult to try that now. Instead, effort is better utilized for lowering mining cost, mass adoption, large transaction capability with shorted wait time & lower fee.",
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      "body": "Congratulations @aritra! You have completed some achievement on Steemit and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :\n\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x80/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/votes.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@aritra) Award for the number of upvotes\n\nClick on any badge to view your own Board of Honor on SteemitBoard.\nFor more information about SteemitBoard, click [here](https://steemit.com/@steemitboard)\n\nIf you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word `STOP`\n\n> By upvoting this notification, you can help all Steemit users. Learn how [here](https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/http-i-cubeupload-com-7ciqeo-png)!",
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      "title": "BTC, how deep is this dip",
      "body": "Hello,\n\nWe are experiencing a major dip in prince of BTC for the past few days. There are a number of factors that may (or may not) have caused this:\n1. Reports on China's Ban on BTC exchanges can cause this panic sell,\n2. China's ICO regulation may cause the overall market cap to decrease, and recently,\n3. \"Bitcoin is a fraud\" by JPMorgan CEO, could make some newcomer to hold back.\n\nOverall, there is a notion that, \"This is the Bitcoin bubble burst\". \n\nFirst of all, Bitcoin is here to stay. It manged to overcome many road blocks in the past. Blockchain technology is a breakthrough in innovation. Bitcoin is its biggest testimonial. There are many smart people building fabulous technology around it, like ETHEREUM, RIPPLE, GOLEM, SIA, MAIDSAFE etc to name a few. Many of these (if not all) will become the new norm for the future. And so the Bitcoin.\n\nTo sum up, this is a market correction. It happens to all kinds of market. Similar to stock market in the 1920s, Cryptocurrency market, is just at its initial phase. Stock markets, saw the 1930s great  depression, 2000s doc com bubble, 2008s housing bubble. It came back strong even after all these issues. Cryptocurrency market, will not be any different. \n\nThat being cleared up, lets get to the Technical Analysis of BTC/USD.\n\n# Price dip \n\nLets not be over enthusiastic about Bitcoin too. BTC/USD dropped by 35% from its peak. Do not believe, it is just going to the moon from here on. That is a possibility. However, the probability is, BTC will drop further. Here is why I think that.\n\n![BTC-Bull-market.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmX6d7AjE717pQ8ej8Djrt9HDk9Gdm77mZ8gkAh7zB4Spx/BTC-Bull-market.png)\n\nThe above picture is a price action of BTC/USD. The top part is the \"Bollinger Band\" of the closing Price. In the middle, we have the MACD of the closing price. The bottom part is the RSI (Relative Strength Index) of the closing price.\nNow, if you see the last part of this, in all 3 graphs, you will observe:\n1. The last Red Candle is below the lower level of Bollinger Band (top chart).\n2. The MACD line (blue in middle chart) is below the signal line (orange) and also below zero line of histogram\n3. RSI (purple line in bottom chart) is about to touch the 30%\n\nAll of these signals are bearish in nature. If the price line is going below the lower level of Bollinger Band, that confirms, it did not hold the last support level.\nFor MACD, if it goes under the signal level it confirms the bear signal. Moreover it has passed below zero level. So, bear market is likely to continue.\nFor RSI, nearly touching 30% mark, means market is nearly oversold. If it reaches below 30%, it can continue for some time.\n\nIn conclusion, this is the first major bear market in BTC. Right now, it is better to keep and eye on the price and wait for the perfect time to buy. \n\nWe have not reached the full depth of the dip yet. For that, wait for a few more days.",
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      "body": "Was a good read that post!",
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      "body": "True, I was looking forward to 6000$ mark too. At least my Fib retrace predicted it. I discussed about it in my last post :  https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@aritra/step-by-step-ta-of-btc-usd",
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      "body": "Psychological resistance is a real thing in the market and I think your chart shows it.  Big numbers often take a few runs to overcome.  I am not surprised at the pullback.  I thought it would overshoot a bit before retracing but the 5000 level was just too strong.\n\nI look for consolidation for a while before BTC moving past 5000 and making a run at 6000.  We might get a larger pullback at the 6000 level depending upon how fast the run up is.",
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      "author": "aritra",
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      "title": "BTC/USD downtrend? What do we know from the past?",
      "body": "Hello,\n\nLets take a moment of Bitcoin's achievement. On 2nd Sept 2017 BTC/USD touched its All Time High at 5000$. In fact, the year 2017 has been a bull run for the Bitcoin. We saw multiple All Time High achieved by Bitcoin. At first at 1000$ BTC created history. But then, over the course of next few months, it repeated the history again and again with price point reaching 2000$, 3000$, 4000$ and latest 5000$. Lets take a look into the time frame on which it has happened in the picture below:\n\n![BTC-2sept-ATH.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmYvS6xCz1QZN1MbrkurqtJ2Po8GLpynQQpYmQ1CDfK4Su/BTC-2sept-ATH.png)\n   \nBut 3 out of 5 times, when Bitcoin reach a new high,we saw an immediate pullback. It happened in the 1000$ mark in Jan 2017,\n3000$ mark in June 2017 and now in 5000$ mark in September 2017. Lets have a look into the Bearish Engulfing patterns in the 1D interval for 2017:\n![BTC-2sept-1D.png](https://steemitimages.com/DQmSLymQ9haZ7avc9XQ4PZzDuYKrQob3BSbbwM6bCQbV1RA/BTC-2sept-1D.png)\n\nSo the pullback is not a new thing. It has happened in the past. If we study the chart for this year alone, we should expect it as soon as BTC reaches a new All Time High.\n\nBut the real question remains, when the trend will end? More specifically, how can we position ourself as a treader to take advantage of this bear trend. \n\nI will answer this in later posts. As of now, do not invest in Bitcoin if you are a short term treader. \n\nRemember, patients is the key in Crypto Currency Market.",
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