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      "body": "<p>The Cryptocurrency market is extremely new and has yet to mature with greater regulation and institutional involvement, leading to sharp moves and high volatility as the market grows. <strong>This is a double edged sword</strong> — heaven for day traders looking for a bit of excitement while adding significant risk to those wishing to trade longer term.</p>\n\n\n<div class=\"sqs-block image-block sqs-block-image\" data-aspect-ratio=\"32.200647249190936\" data-block-type=\"5\" id=\"block-yui_3_17_2_1_1527208127045_16142\"><div class=\"sqs-block-content\">\n\n  \n\n  \t\n      <div class=\"image-block-outer-wrapper layout-caption-below design-layout-inline\">\n      \n        <div class=\"intrinsic\" style=\"max-width:1280.0px;\">\n          \n            <div style=\"padding-bottom:32.200645446777344%;\" class=\"image-block-wrapper   has-aspect-ratio\" data-description=\"&lt;p&gt;Photo by &lt;a target=&quot;_blank&quot; href=&quot;https://unsplash.com/photos/FOsina4f7qM?utm_source=unsplash&amp;amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;amp;utm_content=creditCopyText&quot;&gt;Priscilla Du Preez&lt;/a&gt; on &lt;a target=&quot;_blank&quot; href=&quot;https://unsplash.com/search/photos/loop?utm_source=unsplash&amp;amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;amp;utm_content=creditCopyText&quot;&gt;Unsplash&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;\" >\n              <noscript><img src=\"https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ae76be68ab7221a1204c121/t/5b075939f950b75f00e34c43/1527208281308/1_L_l0n_oTQLE2G0yJvHwZpg.png\"  alt=\" Photo by  Priscilla Du Preez  on  Unsplash  \"  /></noscript>\n            </div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"sqs-block html-block sqs-block-html\" data-block-type=\"2\" id=\"block-yui_3_17_2_1_1527208127045_16423\"><div class=\"sqs-block-content\"><h1>Historical Volatility</h1><p>Historical Volatility comparison of asset classes.</p><ul><li><strong>GVZVIX</strong> — CBOE Volatility index for Gold</li><li><strong>VIX </strong>— CBOE Volatility index for the S&amp;P 500</li><li><strong>EUVIX </strong>— CBOE Volatility index for Euro/USD pair</li><li><strong>BTCVIX</strong> — Bitcoin 30 day historical volatility (Bitcoin volatility on right axis as it’s so much higher)</li></ul></div></div><div class=\"sqs-block image-block sqs-block-image\" data-block-type=\"5\" id=\"block-yui_3_17_2_1_1527208694432_8309\"><div class=\"sqs-block-content\">\n\n  \n\n  \t\n      <div class=\"image-block-outer-wrapper layout-caption-below design-layout-inline\">\n      \n        <div class=\"intrinsic\" style=\"max-width:1478.0px;\">\n          \n            <div style=\"padding-bottom:75.778076171875%;\" class=\"image-block-wrapper   has-aspect-ratio\" data-description=\"\" >\n              <noscript><img src=\"https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ae76be68ab7221a1204c121/t/5b075b11f950b75f00e38c60/1527208731168/Volatility_comparison.png\"  alt=\"Volatility_comparison.png\"  /></noscript>\n            </div>\n          \n\n          \n\n        </div>\n      \n      </div>\n    \n\n  \n\n\n</div></div><div class=\"sqs-block html-block sqs-block-html\" data-block-type=\"2\" id=\"block-yui_3_17_2_1_1527208127045_22228\"><div class=\"sqs-block-content\"><p>As we can see, there is a clear correlation between the volatility of more traditional traded assets, especially so during events such as the 2009 bounce. Bitcoin, on the other hand, seems to hold limited correlation to any of these other classes of products, even when factoring out the huge difference in average volatility.</p><p>Even the volatility of equities, currently at 13.4% from the VIX, is completely dwarfed by that of Bitcoin, coming in at 70% (down from 150% earlier in the year) — and Bitcoin is historically one of the less volatile Cryptocurrencies. <strong>Cryptocurrency markets represent a huge shift in gear, incurring more risk while giving the possibility of greater reward.</strong></p><h1>How to manage the volatility</h1><p>Managing downside risk is an important part of any successful trading strategy, more so in the extreme volatility of Cryptocurrency. I personally prefer to define a hard stop-loss level prior to each trade, however a “soft” soft-loss/ exit parameter can be sufficient depending on the frequency of the trading strategy.</p><p>Very few Crypto exchanges cater to higher frequency trading at the moment, making faster trading strategies more difficult if not impossible in many cases. High frequency market making or scalping strategies are less concerned with hard stop-losses, due to the extremely short exposure to directional risk.</p><p>As hold duration for each trade moves into the span of minutes, absolute risk is still relatively limited in most cases. However, as in any market, there are occasional spikes in volatility — but these can be amplified too.</p></div></div><div class=\"sqs-block image-block sqs-block-image\" data-block-type=\"5\" id=\"block-yui_3_17_2_1_1527208127045_26136\"><div class=\"sqs-block-content\">\n\n  \n\n  \t\n      <div class=\"image-block-outer-wrapper layout-caption-below design-layout-inline\">\n      \n        <div class=\"intrinsic\" style=\"max-width:790.0px;\">\n          \n            <div style=\"padding-bottom:75.82278442382812%;\" class=\"image-block-wrapper   has-aspect-ratio\" data-description=\"&lt;p&gt;12th Apr 2018 — A move of $1200 — greater than the entire span of previous 2 weeks&lt;/p&gt;\" >\n              <noscript><img src=\"https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ae76be68ab7221a1204c121/t/5b0759ba575d1f998b688a64/1527208387717/0_p2P_5Pa-ZajQCe6C.png\"  alt=\" 12th Apr 2018 — A move of $1200 — greater than the entire span of previous 2 weeks \"  /></noscript>\n            </div>\n          \n\n          \n          <div class=\"image-caption-wrapper\">\n          </div>\n          \n\n        </div>\n      \n      </div>\n    \n\n  \n\n\n</div></div><div class=\"sqs-block html-block sqs-block-html\" data-block-type=\"2\" id=\"block-yui_3_17_2_1_1527208127045_26415\"><div class=\"sqs-block-content\"><h3>The risk:reward ratio of each trade is an important factor to a profitable trading system, along with the success rate&nbsp;</h3><p>If there is no plan for risk management, a black-swan event (such as the margin cascade seen above) could undo a week’s profits — or even wipe out a while account.</p><h3>Moving into longer term strategies, such as swing trading</h3><p>Volatility makes common strategies trickier. The simplest way to reduce the risk on a trade is to reduce position sizing on signals with lower confidence. For example, in forex trading, leverage is widely used to make efficient use of capital on relatively smaller movements. Meanwhile, it’d be madness to take that level of leverage on a Crypto swing trade. Risk doesn’t have to be any higher between asset classes, as long as volatility is adjusted for.</p><p>From active trading strategies into indexing, the Cryptocurrency market has provided huge returns over the past couple of years, with the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/\">total market capitalization</a> rising from $18.3B at the start of 2017 to $613B by the start of 2018 — over 3000% growth. Unfortunately, past performance isn’t indicative of future returns — it would be impossible to continue at such a rate. Between Jan 2018 and Apr 2018, there was a pullback of 60% from which we’re still recovering.</p><p>An automatically re-balanced Cryptocurrency index fund can offer a simple but effective way to gain diversified exposure to the market, but be warned that you will have to be able to stomach the possibility of high drawdowns.</p><h1>Volatility and Speculative Assets</h1><p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://blog.alpaca.markets/blog/2018/5/22/so-you-want-to-trade-crypto-fundamentals-part1\">As I mentioned in the first post of the series</a>, Cryptocurrency cannot be analyzed in the same manner as traditional assets. You have no physical item or stake in a company to which the price is tied. The whole valuation of your token is based on the expectation of future demand, and is thus very susceptible to changes in sentiment.</p><p>A stock will be priced above the value of its dividends and assets to account for the expected growth in the business over time. However, during a market downturn, investors become less optimistic about the future as the economy constricts, driving down prices. The business itself may lose some revenue as consumers of the economy have less cash to spend, but there is still a functioning business with value.</p><p>Meanwhile, the whole success of Cryptocurrency relies on the ability of a project to attract businesses and developers to use the platform. Speculators are betting that the project will be successful in this goal long term, but there is no tangible asset to retain value if the project falters or market sentiment shifts against it.</p><h3>This is one of the main reasons why the Cryptocurrency market remains so volatile compared to any other asset class</h3><p>While this effect will reduce over time, as successful applications and businesses form in the ecosystem, it will not be a quick or easy process.</p>\n\n<h1>Commission-Free Algo Trading Brokerage</h1><p>And, stay up to dated for the first Developer-First Commission-Free Brokerage <a href=\"https://alpaca.markets/\" target=\"_blank\">Alpaca Securities</a> public launch. We are building Alpaca for the code-native generation like us.</p>\n\nhttps://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXVoVCSordZS928NzKGCdodYaHgDPMcJh2hpd5zs1FWKF/image.png<p> </p></div></div></div></div></div></div><p> </p></div></div></div></div></div></div>\n\n<p><em>by Matthew Tweed</em></p></div></div></div></div></div></div>",
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      "body": "<div class=\"sqs-layout sqs-grid-12 columns-12\" data-layout-label=\"Post Body\" data-type=\"item\" data-updated-on=\"1527037590452\" id=\"item-5b04be966d2a736439f8cbae\"><div class=\"row sqs-row\"><div class=\"col sqs-col-12 span-12\"><div class=\"sqs-block html-block sqs-block-html\" data-block-type=\"2\" id=\"block-yui_3_17_2_1_1527037840817_7248\"><div class=\"sqs-block-content\"><p>This is the 1st post of a mini-series looking into:&nbsp;</p><ul><li>the nature of Cryptocurrency trading and investment,&nbsp;</li><li>the key factors which shift the markets, and</li><li>the important differences between Crypto and more traditional traded assets.</li></ul></div></div><div class=\"sqs-block image-block sqs-block-image\" data-aspect-ratio=\"31.55339805825243\" data-block-type=\"5\" id=\"block-yui_3_17_2_1_1527037605967_9403\"><div class=\"sqs-block-content\">\n\nhttps://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQme7DzgTY7sCYWDRRhJos285BgqnYdewfgwtTNPbfDJsDu/image.png\n\n</div></div><div class=\"sqs-block html-block sqs-block-html\" data-block-type=\"2\" id=\"block-yui_3_17_2_1_1527037605967_9672\"><div class=\"sqs-block-content\"><h1>Fundamental factors of Cryptocurrencies vs traditional assets.</h1><p>In terms of investing and long term trading, <strong>Cryptocurrency can be analyzed somewhere between a stock and a commodity.</strong></p><p>It should be seen very much as a speculative investment — in the case of most Cryptocurrencies, you’re buying into a token which represents no stake in a company nor any voting rights, similar to a commodity. However, you’re not investing into a physical asset either. You’re simply betting that over time the use-case and thus demand for your token will grow, driving up the price.</p><p>Since price over time will be relative to the success of product, it can be analyzed similarly to an investment in a start-up. The main focus when looking at a token should be the team and their ability to deliver a working product that will actually be used. Not only this, you should also take<br />into consideration the use of the token itself within their product.</p><blockquote>Will growth of the product actually lead to higher demand for the token, or is it simply tacked on as an after thought?</blockquote><p>Additionally, Cryptocurrency projects seem to have a very different valuation split to previous technologies. A shift in valuation from the applications built on top of a protocol to the Blockchain protocol itself. No-one is investing in creating a new protocol layer for the internet, as the captured value comes from the applications and companies build upon it, such as Google, Facebook and Amazon.</p><p>On the other hand, <strong>Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have market caps of $100B</strong> while very few applications have even been produced yet, let alone applications in wide use outside of the sphere of Crypto-enthusiasts.</p><p>This may be a symptom of a wider speculative bubble around the Cryptocurrency market as a whole, or simply a fact of the technology — requiring a sufficient valuation to be maintained to allow efficient flow of payments. That being said, we haven’t seen a truly successful product built<br />on Blockchain yet, maybe the Blockchain killer app will dwarf current valuations in the long term - only time will tell.</p><h2>What to look for in projects</h2><p>The core proposition of Cryptocurrencies over the traditional financial system is the fact that you don’t have to trust a third party.&nbsp;</p><h3>Trust-less decentralization</h3><p>A transaction can be sent to anyone anywhere in the world without needing a bank or escrow account in the middle. This property of trust-less decentralization should be the backbone of any good Cryptocurrency.</p><p>However, simple transactions are a very basic and limited use-case, which has been offered by Bitcoin since its first release in 2009. A project has to offer a unique and useful advancement on basic Blockchain technology. Many new Cryptos are becoming “smart contract platforms”.</p><p><strong>Smart contracts</strong> are pieces of code which can be run on top of the Blockchain, in the same decentralized and trust-less manner as payments. This allows the easy creation of full applications on top of the basic transaction layer, providing much wider uses for businesses and developers.</p><h3>Longterm Scalability</h3><p>Longer term, one of the fundamental issues that needs to be solved in Blockchain technology is that of scaling. Since the basic Blockchain model relies on all connected nodes to process every transaction, it quickly runs into limitations of how fast a payment can be distributed and verified, not to mention that of storage.</p><p>While there are many projects out there which claim “1,000,000 transactions per second”, almost all of these approaches are either impractical in real life or break the fundamental premise of a Cryptocurrency being trust-less and decentralized. Its relatively easy to achieve “1M tps” when running high powered servers in the same location that all have implicit trust.<br />However, in reality, flow of transactions is limited by latency between nodes around the globe and the fact that we shouldn’t rely on a central node for verification — otherwise why don’t we just use a regular bank?</p><p>The scaling issue is being progressed on with such technologies as “sharding” or a change from a traditional Blockchain to a “DAG”. In the long term, these are the kind of advancements which will achieve reliable scaling, rather than misleading promises from certain projects.</p><h3>Product Value w/ Blockchain</h3><p>Finally, and most importantly, you should consider who the Cryptocurrency is developed for and whether it is truly a useful product to them. Many have tried applying Blockchain in a misguided manner to any and all systems to join in with the hype. However, unless you need the very specific properties of a decentralized and trust-less system, Blockchain is no more than a glorified<br />database.</p><h3>Final thoughts</h3><p>While there is innovation left and right in the Cryptocurrency space, caution is still strongly advised. Out of the over 1500 coins and tokens in existence, only a handful of projects are likely to survive. While the vast majority will fail in the long run, due diligence pays off — helping us sift through the rubbish to find those which have a chance at leading the revolution of decentralized finance.</p><p> </p></div></div></div></div></div></div>",
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