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      "body": "Congratulations @agencyanalysis! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@agencyanalysis/birthday2.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 2 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@agencyanalysis) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](https://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=agencyanalysis)_</sub>\n\n\n**Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:**\n<table><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemfest/@steemitboard/steemitboard-supports-the-steemfest-travel-reimbursement-fund\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmXDHs9xfx8ZZ3DESFUqHRUQAcQT5kUWobArsRoJg2Yz1F/image.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemfest/@steemitboard/steemitboard-supports-the-steemfest-travel-reimbursement-fund\">SteemitBoard supports the SteemFest⁴ Travel Reimbursement Fund.</a></td></tr></table>\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "title": "The Crypto Sector is Lacking Fresh Capital from the Outside! | Monday Special Report",
      "body": "<html>\n<p>Bitcoin hit $6,200 last week! Yay, the euphoria continues! Well, maybe not \"yay,\" since the rest of the crypto market continued to experience weakness over the last few weeks. If you are an investor in the sector who is endogenously diversified, gains in Bitcoin may not have increased the total value of your portfolio in fiat terms. Heck, if your crypto portfolio is not dominated by Bitcoin you may be suffering heavy losses. Overall, this is a change in the trend, and this accumulation of strength in Bitcoin and weakness in the rest of the sector is a red flag. What will happen when Bitcoin turns around? Will the alts go to the moon? These questions prompt us to focus on a few fundamentals and technicals today. The bottom line: the crypto sector is lacking fresh capital from the outside!</p>\n<h1>Crypto Market Divergence</h1>\n<p>The divergence between Bitcoin and the alts started to carve an obvious path a few weeks ago when Bitcoin was setting a pace the rest of the crypto market couldn't keep up with. If one takes a look at the market capitalization percentage data of the crypto sector below, we can trace the beginning of this divergence and capital flows out of altcoins and into Bitcoin dating back to mid June of this year - increasing Bitcoin's market dominance. Not all the altcoins started to experience this divergence at the same time, but the data allows us to theorize in more general terms. Of course, maybe each consecutive instrument simply reached its peak price and capital left the sector without redistributing to Bitcoin or some other crypto instrument. Note that with this data here we simply don't know how much of the capital stayed in the market and moved around internally, or how much \"new\" capital flowed into the sector. From this data, one thing we can see for sure: net capital is leaving altcoins and going to Bitcoin.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://i.imgur.com/jDfpRnW.png\" width=\"1424\" height=\"802\"/></p>\n<p>Chart by CoinMarketCap.com - https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage</p>\n<p>One good example of this change in trend is OmiseGo, who in August, was following Bitcoin fairly well...up and down. This relationship is now experiencing inversion....</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.tradingview.com/x/mWoQwgEG/\" width=\"1824\" height=\"956\"/></p>\n<p>Going back to the crypto market cap chart above, you will see how inversion began some time mid June (2017), most notably with Ethereum.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.tradingview.com/x/toQKxTkU/\" width=\"1824\" height=\"956\"/></p>\n<p>What has happened to Ethereum since then? Well, Ethereum has traded sideways and has failed to establish new highs on the daily chart. If the daily is showing us a symmetrical triangle, don't forget that symmetrical triangles can breakout to the downside just as much as they can break to the upside.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.tradingview.com/x/Apyz5MnJ/\" width=\"1824\" height=\"956\"/></p>\n<p>&nbsp;Interestingly, Ripple experienced divergence as early as mid May (2017). If you take a look at Ripple on a chart, you might see something similar to Ethereum. Both Ethereum and Ripple outperformed Bitcoin at one point in time. Now, Bitcoin is outperforming.</p>\n<h1>Crypto Market Capitalization</h1>\n<p>One of the big questions floating around right now is, what will happen when Bitcoin starts to correct to the downside? Will the alt market follow the weakness or will they continue this current inverse relationship and outperform bitcoin's weakness against fiat currencies? Many subscribe to the theory that we will see capital \"rotation\" from Bitcoin into the altcoins when the former decides to take a break. Before we bet on this conclusion, we should consider some evidence.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>The fact that some of the altcoins experienced variation in capital flows (as noted above) casts light on this idea of \"rotation.\" In other words, not all boats might float at the same time, and so the entire altcoin sector might not get a boost from weakness in Bitcoin if strength on weakness is the case. We might see rotation, but only in a few dominant players while the rest sink to even deeper technical levels. Why are we seeing this \"rotation\" in the first place? Would a healthy market exhibit such structure?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://i.imgur.com/BaOJDFG.png\" width=\"1225\" height=\"690\"/></p>\n<p>Chart by CoinMarketCap.com - https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage</p>\n<p>For one, this rotation in capital may be a symptom of, and could be a signal for, a potential top in the crypto market capitalization in its totality. Without fresh capital coming in, we run out of buyers for these instruments. The capital in the market now may simply be rotating around on fundamentals (think \"hard fork\") and technicals (we never went beyond important fibo and trend line levels in Bitcoin...yet). What we could be seeing, is a final rally concentrated in Bitcoin because of its strength and appeal. Wyckoff analysts would call this moment in time a \"distribution\" phase, where big players are cashing out on strength, while new retail money floods the market. In this case, the distribution signal could have been from the total market capitalization. Have we hit important levels in the total market capitalization charts?&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Notice on the chart above how the market capitalization of the entire sector has not surpassed the previous high. Bitcoin surpassed the previous all-time high by over $1000. On the total market cap chart it looks like there is a risk of forming a \"double top\" if Bitcoin turns around soon, or we could see a \"5th wave\" within the 1 to 5 Elliot Wave sequence. Uhoh! &nbsp;Now, one thing we must consider is that the current structural wave 5 in Bitcoin has not ended, and that we might continue higher. But, we are likely to form a top soon by completing the final sub-wave 5 within that structure. This suggests we could still see more capital flow into Bitcoin - maybe even into the entire sector - bringing the total market cap up over that previous high. The question is how much capital, when, and from where? If you take a closer look at the chart, you will see there is some room left to run and still potentially form a double top or breach a key support level (yes, market cap charts have those, too).&nbsp;</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://i.imgur.com/S5F3tJ6.png\" width=\"1108\" height=\"623\"/></p>\n<p>Chart by CoinMarketCap.com - https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage</p>\n<p>If we exclude Bitcoin's market cap, as the chart above does, we see the degree to which there has been a slow down in the capital flowing into the altcoin sector. The reason for this could have been the low technical levels reached in many altcoins such as Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, OmiseGo, etc., particularly against Bitcoin. Breaching a major key fibo, for example, can encourage big players to cash out once the market swings back around to the major fibo or the previous high. This last signal was the reason why I began to let go of my entire investment portfolio in the crypto space back in June when I saw the massive selloffs (although I am still holding Quarkcoin that I've been accumulating since 2013 ;) ).&nbsp;This \"selloff\" capital might have then moved into Bitcoin as a safe-haven due to its technical and fundamental strength (this is one contextual reason why I have been opening long positions in Bitcoin). At the moment, it seems \"new\" money is entering the market only relative to Bitcoin. A sense of euphoria is plaguing that market right now, and as new capital from the \"outside\" comes in, the smart capital may be leaving. Of course, this can only be validated once things have toppled or moved on pretty far. By the time this conclusion is validated, the entire crypto space may have already been plunged into a bear market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://i.imgur.com/c62cv4M.png\" width=\"1213\" height=\"683\"/></p>\n<p>Chart by CoinMarketCap.com - https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage</p>\n<p>I'm not a fan of making a correlation with the previous bubble in this space, simply because so much of the fundamentals have changed. But, this total market capitalization chart below should not be ignored. Notice the double top structure, coupled with a drop to a support zone which was a lower low, followed by a lower high. I can imagine a pattern like this repeating itself. This is a sure signal you should sell what you have taking into consideration potential risk of a bear market. This bull market did not see all the same top 20 instruments we saw in the last one, so the coins you could have \"invested\" in recently may reach a fiat value close to zero. This is exactly what happened with Quarkcoin I began accumulating during the last bubble. Live and learn (rather than live and earn), sometimes I guess!</p>\n<p>Now, what may happen as Bitcoin begins to complete its current structural wave 5, is capital DOES begin to rotate back into the rest of the sector (altcoins) rather than leave. This would unleash some serious gains in the altcoin market, while Bitcoin loses value. However, <strong>the lesson here is that this would have to result in an increase in the total market capitalization</strong> (i.e., new capital to the entire sector). I still cannot imagine the altcoin market flying without Bitcoin, but the altcoin market will definitely not fly without a fresh supply of capital from the outside world.</p>\n<h1>House Keeping...</h1>\n<p>If you have been following my threads here and on Trading View over the last few weeks, you will notice that I have been flat or short on most instruments except the big B (although I was looking carefully for a crown reversal in Bitcoin). Just to remind you, I do not consider the current crypto environment ripe for \"investing\" and hodling for the long term. This was an activity that should have been carried out during 2015 and 2016, so I am going to wait for the next bear market to start accumulating again. I advise you do the same. I plan on blogging well into the bear market and showing how I caught the last one for enormous gains.</p>\n<p>***On Friday I could not access Steemit (this happened numerous times over the last few weeks), so I could not post a technical report. I've also notice the site has been working very slow at times. Due to the unreliable nature of this platform - something I did not notice until I joined - keep in mind that you can access my technical charts at <a href=\"https://www.tradingview.com/u/Agency/\">TradingView.com/Agency</a> at any time. Because of this unreliability, I would advise some of you to withdraw a portion of your Steemit Tokens and consider selling them for fiat as the bear market might be approaching ;) . A bear market in the crypto world would result in a collapse (in fiat terms) of the value of upvotes and curation rewards you receive. If you are in it for the long-term (years and years), maybe just leave it alone! I know in the next bear market, I will be investing into Steemit and whatever other blockchain social media project comes to life early.</p>\n<p>Cheers!<br>\n-Erik</p>\n</html>",
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      "body": "<html>\n<p>Some claim that Bitcoin Cash is the true \"Bitcoin.\" Do the fundamentals even matter? Probably not. I've got a new thread going analyzing the Bitcoin Cash market. Check it out, its on Trading View.</p>\n<p>https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BCHUSD/eoceKcSC-Bitcoin-Cash-Rally-or-Crash/<img src=\"https://i.imgur.com/v5w0Cch.png\" width=\"1513\" height=\"852\"/></p>\n</html>",
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      "body": "Congratulations @agencyanalysis! You have completed some achievement on Steemit and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :\n\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x80/http://steemitboard.com/notifications/firstpayout.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@agencyanalysis) You got your First payout\n\nClick on any badge to view your own Board of Honor on SteemitBoard.\nFor more information about SteemitBoard, click [here](https://steemit.com/@steemitboard)\n\nIf you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word `STOP`\n\n> By upvoting this notification, you can help all Steemit users. Learn how [here](https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/http-i-cubeupload-com-7ciqeo-png)!",
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      "title": "Lots to Watch This Week in the Crypto Market | Monday Technical Report",
      "body": "<html>\n<p>Hope you had a good weekend. I'm finding this Monday a bit of a drowsy one. That's because I spent too much time on the weekend managing and planning trades. That was a mistake. From now on I am gonna try to minimize this kind of activity on the weekends when I should be resting. Mental and physical freshness is a must when playing in these markets or making any kind of important decisions, really. I would advise to you the same.</p>\n<p>Let's begin...</p>\n<p>&nbsp;Overall, the market seems to be taking something of a pause from its trajectory. Bitcoin has been fluctuating within the \"crown reversal zone\" I mentioned last week. Meanwhile, the alt market is taking a bit of a breather from the massive selloffs against Bitcoin. There is no doubt, as always, that Bitcoin is leading the pack and that we are experiencing some kind of short squeeze here. You would have to be very vigilant to short bitcoin at this time, or end up possibly owing your entire account within a few days. Of course, we are not shorting, we have a daily target to the upside.</p>\n<p>Today, I will cover more instruments than usual, this is because a full spectrum overview like this really gives you a better sentiment of the market. And right now, that sentiment is an interesting one. The current selloffs against BTC will have to bounce back, and if Bitcoin remains in a strong position when this bounce happens across the alt market we are bound for some serious gains.</p>\n<p>*I have changed to a dark theme on Trading View for the winter just to switch things up. They are my charts no less.</p>\n<h1>Bitcoin</h1>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.tradingview.com/x/c36kheB2/\" width=\"1824\" height=\"956\"/></p>\n<p>After hitting our hourly MAX TP last week, we are currently we are consolidating within the potential crown reversal area. Support looks pretty strong, but if we fall through we will trigger our stop-loss which is now moved just below the flag formation. It would be quite normal to dip and bounce off the sub-key fibo support and continue higher. The support zone extends down almost to the breakout zone, so it would not be surprising if it breached that level momentarily. If we get stopped out, we will want to jump back in once we see some supportive price action or we buy the breakout of the previous high. Key levels to watch are pretty clear on the chart.</p>\n<p>Pay attention to the second potential crown reversal zone where our flag target resides. On the way there we have our daily profit taking point, which we will take, and then let the rest ride to our final destination. There is also a bullish flag target 2, which would be very nice :)</p>\n<p>Updates can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/qvhdpq1g-Bitcoin-Structural-Wave-5-Foundations-For-A-Crown-Reversal/</p>\n<h1>OmiseGO</h1>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.tradingview.com/x/Kklb1uca/\" width=\"1824\" height=\"956\"/></p>\n<p>Currently we have a short trade going. There is a uptrend line ahead, so I may close the short just to get some sure profit out of this trade. Remember we have a bearish flag formation that looks like it will bring us in for a falling wedge pattern on the 4HR rather than the bullish flag I've pointed out. But at the moment this is unknowable for sure.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.tradingview.com/x/2a7eZ4Aj/\" width=\"1824\" height=\"956\"/></p>\n<p>Combining this chart, we can see there is strength to the overall instrument in this market. Which adds to the \"close the short\" thesis. We have patterns which deduce some nice targets, but that major key fibo level is holding fairly well here. This, of course, may be due to the stability in the BTCUSD chart, for now. If it breaks, we will see nice down moment in this pair - although the OMGUSD chart may get propped up by BTCUSD. Key levels are in plain sight on the chart. Be decisive and keep the RSI in mind and you'll be fine.</p>\n<p>My broader thinking for OmiseGO is that we will see some low levels hit in the OMGBTC chart that will initiate a big rally back to the major fibo level. Together with strength in the BTCUSD chart, we could be looking at 100% gains in USD terms once things get going.</p>\n<p>Updates can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/OMGUSD/6bIi1luh-Bullish-Flag-or-Falling-Wedge-Catching-Structural-Wave-3/</p>\n<h1>Bitcoin Cash</h1>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.tradingview.com/x/DQ8GqheU/\" width=\"1824\" height=\"956\"/></p>\n<p>We have seen heavy looses in this instrument over the last month. Now, there is a feeling of despair among its holders or traders. This makes for crappy day trading, so the big guys might move in and fetch at these relatively super low prices. However, its too risky to jump in right now (think in game theory terms). Currently we are kissing a downtrend line, which removes an object of resistance! But up and downtrend lines are funny things, and should not be the point of focus. If the trend continues, we are looking for a breakout to the bottom of the bear flag.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.tradingview.com/x/6ng7WjCL/\" width=\"1824\" height=\"956\"/></p>\n<p>In this chart we can see that things collapsed pretty hard, but that they also bounced back and regained stability vis-a-vis BTC. There is room for a rally to the top of the descending channel :) Watch carefully my friends for a breakout to the upside...</p>\n<p>Updates can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BCHUSD/fBDg603h-Bitcoin-Cash-Consolidation-New-Low-or-Structural-Wave-5/</p>\n<h1>Ripple</h1>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.tradingview.com/x/5r7aumzN/\" width=\"1824\" height=\"956\"/></p>\n<p>I have had a few shorts go south on me over the weekend in this pair. Entry was awkward and the overlapping fibo levels made things tricky. The inverse head and shoulders did the trick to break the descending channel and the symmetrical triangle visible on the 4HR chart. This is where I got stopped out. However, things came crashing down, so I jumped back in. So far so good. The \"Ripple is good at returning to the max fibo\" rule was a good one, it just did not become valid until all of the max fibos were hit. So we can now change the rule to \"Ripple is good at returning to ALL the max fibos.\" lol</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.tradingview.com/x/EK1y2dIN/\" width=\"1824\" height=\"956\"/></p>\n<p>With our new rule in mind, we can make a pattern in the other chart as well. Once we play half of this out, I will close my short (probably later tonight) and we will wait to see what happens in the overall pattern. I am hoping for strength in the XRPUSD chart to take us on a structural wave to the upside, riding that BTCUSD strength.</p>\n<p>Updates can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XRPUSD/YTI8OOcb-Ripple-Consolidation-Deep-Correction-or-Structural-Wave-5/</p>\n<h1>TenX Pay Token</h1>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.tradingview.com/x/lism2zUA/\" width=\"1824\" height=\"956\"/></p>\n<p>It kinda looks like we are forming a upright head and shoulders formation sitting on the top of the target box here. This should take us to the reversal zone I have marked on the chart. From there, I can see a crown reversal happening upon exiting the falling wedge to the upside. The fall could go further, so I have a secondary reversal zone marked on the chart. I am not one for countercyclical trading, but when the reward has a 50% profit potential its worth putting down something. Its worth pointing out that the fundamentals are good behind this coin, also.</p>\n<p>Updates can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PAYBTC/S9vq1xPF-Collapse-or-Breakout-TenX-Pay-Consolidation/</p>\n<h1>Ethereum</h1>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.tradingview.com/x/H1iqrrHK/\" width=\"1824\" height=\"956\"/></p>\n<p>I have never posted a dedicated Ethereum/USD chart on Trading View, mainly because I have seen getting opportunities elsewhere beyond the rally we had up until July. No less, here is my chart is you are trading this instrument. Falling to the wayside of the rising wedge would take us to the downtrend line...keep this in mind.</p>\n<p>Against Bitcoin this is how we look:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.tradingview.com/x/hd8lOmDA/\" width=\"1824\" height=\"956\"/></p>\n<p>The path of least resistance is to the downside. We could consolidate here for a while before breaking to the downside further. This might keep things stable in the ETHUSD chart for a while.</p>\n<p>Updates can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETHBTC/zWIoWwcI-Finding-the-End-of-Consolidation-Wave-A/</p>\n<h1>Litecoin</h1>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.tradingview.com/x/XIrS07RG/\" width=\"1824\" height=\"956\"/></p>\n<p>I have never posted a Litecoin/USD chart on Trading View, either. For the same reason as I have already specified. Even with the media blessing this instrument with its performance of 100% gains. This is chump change compared to some of the other instruments. Anyway, this is the chart I am looking at this week with targets to the upside and downside on the board.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.tradingview.com/x/wRbp13VV/\" width=\"1824\" height=\"956\"/></p>\n<p>This chart is at a critical place, because we need to breakout to the upside of this downtrend channel or face a steep drop. I have already given my two cents on the long term of this coin, but the BTCUSD strength may prop or even propel the price further up in USD.</p>\n<p>Updates can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/LTCBTC/gqsY2N3Q-LTC-Descending-Wave-5-Heading-Near-Zero-BTC-Value/</p>\n<h1>Ethereum Classic</h1>\n<p><img src=\"https://www.tradingview.com/x/YejsQkbT/\" width=\"1824\" height=\"956\"/></p>\n<p>If you are playing with Ethereum Classic, you will want to watch this chart. A break to the downside will force selling. This instrument has come a long way down, though, so we may get a rally to the upside. This will drive the price up in USD big time! I'm watching this one carefully, just like Bitcoin Cash and OmiseGo.</p>\n<p>Updates can be found here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETCBTC/KH3hHt7z-Ethereum-Classic-Big-Head-and-Shoulders/</p>\n<p>That's all for now. Check back a few times this week as I will be posting fresh threads on Trading View. If it has the dark theme, you'll know its new.</p>\n<p>GLWT!<br>\n-Erik</p>\n<p><br></p>\n</html>",
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