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      "permlink": "steemitboard-notify-adrian808-20190508t021411000z",
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      "body": "Congratulations @adrian808! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@adrian808/birthday2.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 2 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@adrian808) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](http://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=adrian808)_</sub>\n\n\n**Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:**\n<table><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-witness-update-2019-05\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/http://i.cubeupload.com/7CiQEO.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-witness-update-2019-05\">SteemitBoard - Witness Update</a></td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemmeetupaachen/@steemitboard/steemitboard-to-support-the-german-speaking-community-meetups\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeoNp9iCaCfd2D6TqnWa3Aky2mU4Fm3xaSmjTM91YoNBS/image.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemmeetupaachen/@steemitboard/steemitboard-to-support-the-german-speaking-community-meetups\">SteemitBoard to support the german speaking community meetups</a></td></tr></table>\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "body": "Would you believe I've probably been stacking since before you were born...lol...???  It's  probably true...  Anyway, I decided to pay a visit to all those that I've been following...  Seems like the right thing to do...  I know it won't be easy, but I'm determined to do so...  Since I'm here, I'll leave you this comment and a 100% upvote...  I wish it were more, but it is what it is...  @pocketechange",
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      "body": "I think it's got a long way to go yet before it's in bubble territory. Infact according to Greg Mannarino, smart money is moving into cryptocurrencies. That's not to say that we won't get some short term corrections. Nothing can keep moving like that without pauses...",
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      "title": "",
      "body": "we never know until it takes hit !!!",
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      "body": "You know I keep thinking. Could the Cryptos just be another bubble forming.",
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      "body": "I purchase a set amount every month. Up or down I don't care what the price is. I consider it like insurance and each month I make a payment. The thing about this policy is that it just keeps on building and building. When I stop adding or I can't add for what ever reason I will still have  the insurance (Silver)... If I never use it I will pass it on to my children....",
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      "parent_permlink": "morgan",
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      "permlink": "jp-morgan-always-wins-the-royal-flush-by-ted-butler",
      "title": "JP Morgan always wins!  The Royal Flush by Ted Butler",
      "body": "Let me add before you read this article from Ted Butler that JPMorgan has been steeping up it's silver purchases since this story came out in 2016.  Enjoy and always remember that patience is a virtue stackers!!  - Adrian \n\nIn order to make a point, I’m going to address a very popular question, by giving the answer first and then providing the question. The answer does involve a bit of imagining on your part. I ask you to picture yourself at the highest stakes poker game imaginable, where quite literally many billions of dollars are at stake and in which you have just been dealt the indisputable best hand possible - a royal flush. Please accept that you are guaranteed to win.\n\nIt’s the last deal of the game with winner take all. The pot is enormous and all the other participants have been dealt very high and normally winnable hands and are flush with funds and every player is intent on raising and re-raising as each new bet is made. You have plenty of betting funds left and know that you must win in the end; so it is obvious that you will sit back and enjoy the circumstances and hope the raising and re-raising will continue for as long as possible, making the once-in-a-lifetime pot as large as possible – tens and hundreds of billions of dollars.\n\nThe most popular question in silver and the one I ask myself daily is when will JPMorgan finally decide it holds enough silver and let the price rise? The answer is only when it has to. By virtue of its massive physical holding of silver, which is more than 550 million oz (and growing), JPMorgan has as much incentive to rush the price resolution as you would have to end early the imaginary poker game. JPMorgan has been guaranteed to win the real silver game of a lifetime ever since its physical holdings came to exceed its COMEX paper short position, a threshold it crossed in late 2011 or early 2012. Ever since then, JPM has sat back, content to add to its physical silver holdings at decreasing prices, because it knew it must win in the end.\n\nAs much as a royal flush in poker, silver is guaranteed to be a huge winner for JPMorgan for the simple reason that the bank controls the market. Don’t believe me? Then try explaining how it is possible, since acquiring Bear Stearns in 2008, that JPMorgan has never taken a loss, only profits, on every COMEX short silver position it has ever taken, all while being the largest short holder? Not only does JPMorgan have a perfect record on the short side of COMEX silver futures for nearly nine years running; for the past nearly six years, making paper profits (in the billions of dollars) by shorting paper contracts was not even the bank’s greatest achievement. That honor must be reserved for JPMorgan’s accumulation of more than half a billion ounces of actual metal, all on price declines it rigged itself. Based upon those two circumstances, is it possible for any entity to demonstrate greater control over any market than JPMorgan has done in silver?\n\nWhat‘s most remarkable about what JPMorgan has achieved in silver is that it occurred in full view. Certainly, a review of JPMorgan’s financial performance in shorting COMEX silver futures, based upon Commitments of Traders (COT) data, reveals the bank never took a loss or bought back short positions at prices higher than originally shorted. Normally, holding massive short positions on a volatile commodity like silver would be thought to be very risky and lead to losses at some point – at least once in a while. Except, of course, if the game was rigged. As the largest and most successful short seller in COMEX silver futures over the past nine years, JPMorgan was the unquestioned primary silver price rigger.\n\nBut JPMorgan is so smart and powerful (and crooked) that it figured out an even better means of enriching itself, apart from the billions of dollars it made in shorting COMEX silver futures cumulatively since March 2008. The successful and profitable short selling campaign that JPMorgan orchestrated in COMEX silver is predicated on declining prices. There’s no way massive short selling can be profitable if prices rise, instead of falling. Further, even if you succeed for years in successfully rigging prices lower (as I claim JPMorgan has done), sooner or later prices will fall to such ridiculously low levels that they then must rise, most likely in the same ridiculous manner in which they fell. At some point, the jig would be up on the downside rig job. This is so basic, that it would be foolish to think it would be lost on JPMorgan – the smartest player of all.\n\nJPMorgan knew, when it started to acquire physical silver in April 2011, that this was the only way it could successfully conclude its wildly profitable long term shorting campaign in COMEX silver futures. The only thing it couldn’t know was how much physical silver it could acquire before the COMEX paper shorting scam ran its course. But there was no way the bank would ever pull the plug on its control of the COMEX price discovery process while there was physical silver still to be acquired. Not while it was holding the best Royal Flush ever. No one would end the game early in these circumstances and it is unreasonable to expect JPMorgan to do so.\n\nTherefore, silver investors are better advised to focus on the “what” instead of the “when”, although I will admit this falls into the do as I say and not as I do category. Besides, since when can anyone ever know the “when”? The “what” is easy – silver is as cheap as dirt because it has been paper shorted into the ground and on top of that there is compelling evidence that the premier world financial institution has amassed more of it on a physical basis than any private entity in history.\n\nOver the past few years, I’ve tried to outline from where JPMorgan has accumulated its historic hoard of physical silver. Conversions of shares to metal in the big silver ETF, SLV (of which JPM is the custodian), led the way, but there were important sources of supply from skimming the highly unusual COMEX silver warehouse movements and direct purchases of Silver Eagles from the US Mint. Interestingly, all these sources of actual physical supply to JPMorgan began around the same time – April 2011.\n\nNot the largest, but clearly the most transparent source of physical silver supply for JPMorgan has been in deliveries against COMEX futures contracts. From zero ounces in April 2011 to 5 million oz in April 2012 and onto more than 80 million oz today, the COMEX silver warehouse of JPMorgan has become the largest in the COMEX system. This year, JPMorgan has taken delivery of more than 6000 net silver futures contracts (contracts stopped minus contracts issued), all in its own proprietary trading account. That’s more than 30 million oz of silver acquired by JPMorgan, most of which eventually found its way into the bank’s COMEX warehouse. What is truly remarkable when you study the data, is how glaringly dominate JPMorgan has been in stopping silver deliveries this year (last year too).\n\nhttp://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsYTDReport.pdf\n\nShortly after the current COMEX December delivery commenced earlier this month, I estimated that JPMorgan may take (stop) the maximum number of silver contracts allowed in a single month, 1500 contracts or 7.5 million oz. As it turns out, through yesterday JPMorgan has already taken over 1400 silver contracts. JPM last stopped the full 1500 contracts allowed last May and took less than that amount in the four other traditional delivery months of the last year (excluding the current month). Previously, I had attributed JPMorgan stopping less than the full number of silver contracts allowed on those occasions to the bank not wishing to tighten the wholesale physical market to the point of sending prices higher.\n\nTherefore, I was somewhat surprised when it became clear that JPMorgan intended to take so many silver deliveries this month. Then it dawned on me that the main reason JPMorgan stood for so many silver deliveries this month is because it knew that one of its customers would make a sizable silver delivery this month of nearly 700 contracts or half of what JPMorgan stopped in its own name. At the least, JPMorgan had to know before anyone else that its customer would make such a large delivery and also knew that the 700 contracts involved wouldn’t add to physical tightness, giving the bank a green light to take many more contracts than in more recent months.\n\nLike so many other things, JPMorgan acquiring silver in its own name from a customer suggests a strong conflict of interest and, quite literally, stinks to high heaven. The big stinker, of course, is the bank being the dominant COMEX paper short, never taking a loss and driving silver prices lower for years on end, while being the largest stopper of COMEX silver deliveries and accumulator of physical silver at those same depressed prices. Remember, I am basing this on public data from the CFTC and COMEX and if you have any questions about this, please let me hear from you. I would also ask you to consider in what far away universe would JPMorgan’s actions be considered proper or legal?\n\nThe bottom line on all this is that silver will go when JPMorgan deems it so. There’s nothing we can do to affect the timetable, so it’s counterproductive to even think in those terms (although it sure is natural to think that way). There is only one way to handle an event that is certain to occur, but at a time that can’t be pinpointed – by preparing for the certainty beforehand. JPMorgan’s downward manipulation of the silver price in order to accumulate the largest hoard of silver in history further assures the outcome. The whole manipulation is somewhat complex (until fully vetted), but the preparation for it is as simple as it gets – buy and hold silver, about as hard as falling off a log.\n\nFor the better part of the year, up until the past month or so, the principle measurement I consider – the COMEX market structure in silver and gold – had been bearish. The record large commercial short position and corresponding managed money long position, which peaked in the summer, led to me calling the structure extremely bearish on numerous occasions. I didn’t claim to know how it would turn out, just that it must be resolved and if it turned out how it always had in the past, prices would move lower. That was then and this is now.\n\nNow the market structure is no longer extremely bearish or bearish at all; it is bullish or extremely bullish, depending on how many more managed money traders can be persuaded to sell longs or add shorts. That doesn’t mean we can’t have selloffs, including sharp ones like today that make it seem like the selling will never end. But the reality is that there is a limit to the selling and that limit is reached quicker when trading volume swells, as is also the case today.\n\nThere were sharp rallies this summer in gold and silver, even though the COMEX market structure was bearish; but eventually prices turned lower and the structure was reversed. Likewise, even though the market structure is now bullish, sharp price declines can and do occur. However, the prospects for much higher prices is always best when the market structure is bullish, as I believe it is now. Add in the fact that JPMorgan is buying both physical metal and paper COMEX contracts and the best hand is to bet on silver moving much higher.\n\nTed Butler\n\nDecember 15, 2016\n\nhttp://silverseek.com/commentary/royal-flush-16185",
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      "body": "I think 7PM est is good too.  For those that work that is. I'm personally only able to get on between 7PM and 9PM est time.",
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      "body": "Awesome posts. Lots and lots of info. Keep up the great work.  Thanks",
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      "title": "After decades of manipulation just a Fed funds rate of 2.5% could crash the system...",
      "body": "This article gets to the heart of why central banks’ monetary policy will never succeed. The fundamental error is to regard economic cycles as originating in the private sector, when they are the consequence of fluctuations in credit.\nIt draws on the author’s submission of evidence to the UK Parliament Treasury Committee’s enquiry into the failure of monetary policy in the wake of the 2008 crisisi.\nSummary\nIt is incorrectly assumed that business cycles arise out of free markets. Instead, they are the consequence of the expansion and contraction of unsound money and credit.\nMonetary inflation transfers wealth from savers and those on fixed incomes to the banking sector’s favoured customers. It has become a major cause of increasing disparities between the wealthy and the poor.\nThe credit cycle is a repetitive boom-and-bust phenomenon. The bust phase is the market’s way of eliminating unsustainable debt, created through credit expansion. If the bust is not allowed to proceed, trouble accumulates for the next credit cycle.\nToday, economic distortions from previous credit cycles have accumulated to the point where only a small rise in interest rates will be enough to trigger the next crisis. Consequently, central banks have very little room for manoeuver for dealing with future price inflation.\nInternational coordination of monetary policies has increased the potential scale of the next credit crisis, and not contained it as the central banks believe.\nThe unwinding of the massive credit expansion in Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain and France following the creation of the euro is an additional risk to the global economy.\nCentral banks should desist from using monetary policy as a management tool for the economy.\n \n“We are probably not going to forecast the next financial crisis, nor are we going to forecast the next recession.” - Gertjan Vlieghe, in evidence to the Treasury Select Committee, 20th Feb 2017\nMr Vlieghe, who is a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has effectively admitted that there is no point to the Bank pursuing its monetary policy, because it is impossible to judge the outcome.\nThere are good reasons for this, and they do not lie in ineffective econometric modelling, as commonly believed. Rather, they lie in the flawed economic concepts behind business cycles, which have their origin not in free markets, but in the expansion of money and bank credit. The author of this paper demonstrates that the source of regularly occurring cycles of boom and bust is monetary policy itself.\nModern monetary assumptions\nThe original Keynesian idea behind monetary and fiscal stimulation was to help the economy recover from a recession by encouraging extra consumption through bank credit expansion and unfunded government deficits. Originally, Keynes did not recommend a policy of continual monetary expansion, because he presumed that a recession was the result of a business cycle that could be smoothed by the application of extra credit. The error was to fail to understand that the cycle is of credit itself, the consequence being the imposition of boom and bust on what would otherwise be a non-cyclical economy.\nThe belief in monetary and fiscal stimulation wrongly assumes, among other things, there are no intertemporal effects. As long ago as 1730, Richard Cantillon described the effect of the introduction of new money into an economy. It took time to disperse, driving up prices only as it did so. He noted that when new money was first spent, it raised the prices of the goods first purchased. Subsequent acquirers of the new money raised the prices of the goods they demanded, and so on. In this manner, the new money is gradually distributed, raising prices as it is spent, until it is fully absorbed in the economy. Consequently, maximum benefit of the purchasing power of the new money accrues to the first receivers of it, principally the banks that create unbacked credit out of thin air, and their preferred customers. The losers are those last to receive it, typically the low-paid, the retired, the unbanked and the poor, who find that their earnings and savings buy lessii.\nThere is, in effect, a wealth transfer from the poorest in society to the banks and their favoured customers. Central banks seem oblivious of this effect, and the Bank of England has even gone to some trouble to dissuade us of it, by quoting marginal changes in the Gini coefficient, which as an average tells us nothing about how individuals, or groups of individuals are effected by monetary debasement.\nThe Bank of England is pursuing similar monetary policies to those of the Federal Reserve Board, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan. At the very least, we should question their monetary policies on grounds of both efficacy and the morality, which by debauching the currency, transfers wealth from savers to profligate borrowers.\nThe workings of a credit cycle\nThere follows a brief description of the relationship between credit and economic activity, though it must be noted that individual cycles can vary significantly in the detail.\nWe shall take the credit crisis as our starting point in this repeating cycle. Typically, a credit crisis occurs after the central bank has raised interest rates and tightened lending conditions to curb price inflation, always the predictable result of earlier monetary expansion. The severity of the crisis is proportional to the amount of outstanding private sector debt relative to the size of the economy. Furthermore, the severity is increasingly exacerbated by the international integration of monetary policies. While the 2007-2008 crises in the UK, the Eurozone and Japan were to varying degrees home-grown, the excessive speculation in the American residential property market, facilitated additionally by off-balance sheet securitisation, led to the crisis in each of the other major jurisdictions being more severe than it might otherwise have been.\nHaving acted as lender of last resort to the commercial banks, the central bank tries post-crisis to stabilise the economy. By encouraging a revival in bank lending, it seeks to stimulate the economy into recovery by reducing interest rates. However, it inevitably takes some time before businesses, mindful of the crisis just past, have the confidence to invest in production. They will only respond to signals from consumers when they in turn become less cautious in their spending. Banks, who at this stage will be equally cautious over their lending, will prefer to invest in short-maturity government bonds to minimise risk.\nA period then follows during which interest rates remain suppressed by the central bank below their natural rate. During this period, the central bank will monitor unemployment, surveys of business confidence, and measures of price inflation, for signs of economic recovery. Note how all these indicators are consistent with the belief that credit is being managed to control a business cycle that emanates from the private sector, and that the failure is not credit-induced. In other words, credit is believed to be the solution, when it is the problem.\nEventually, suppressed interest rates begin to stimulate corporate activity, as entrepreneurs utilise a low cost of capital to acquire weaker rivals, and redeploy underutilised assets in target companies. They improve their earnings by buying in their own shares, often funded by bank credit, as well as by undertaking other financial engineering actions. Larger businesses, in which the banks have confidence, are favoured compared with SMEs, who find it generally difficult to obtain finance in the early stages of the recovery phase. To that extent, the manipulation of money and credit by central banks ends up discriminating against entrepreneurial smaller companies, delaying the recovery in employment.\nConsumption eventually picks up, fuelled by credit from banks and other lending institutions, which will be gradually regaining their appetite for risk. The interest cost on consumer loans for big-ticket items, such as cars and household goods, is often reduced under competitive pressures, stimulating credit-fuelled consumer demand. The first to benefit from this credit tend to be the better-off creditworthy consumers, and the large corporations, which are the early-receivers of expanding bank credit.\nThe central bank should, if it was effectively managing credit, at this stage raise interest rates to slow credit growth. However, unemployment lags and is likely to be above the desired target level, and price inflation will almost certainly be below target, encouraging the central bank to continue suppressing interest rates. Bear in mind the Cantillon effect: it takes time for expanding bank credit to raise prices throughout the country.\nEven if the central bank has raised interest rates by this stage, it is inevitably by too little. By now, commercial banks will be competing for loan business from large credit-worthy corporations, cutting their margins to gain market share. So, even if the central bank has increased interest rates modestly, the higher cost of borrowing fails to be passed on by commercial banks.\nWith business confidence spreading outwards from financial centres, bank lending increases further, and more and more businesses start to expand their production, based on return-on-equity calculations at prevailing interest rates and input prices. There’s a gathering momentum to benefit from the new mood. At this stage, future price inflation for business inputs is usually underestimated, uneconomic decisions begin to be implemented, speculation is supported by freely-available credit, and the conditions are in place for another crisis to develop.\nSince tax revenues lag in an economic recovery, government finances have yet to benefit from an increase in taxes. Any budget deficit not financed by bond issues subscribed to by the domestic public and by non-bank corporations represents an additional monetary stimulus, fuelling the credit cycle even more at a time when credit expansion should be withdrawn.\nThe economy now has stabilised, and closely-followed statistics show signs of recovery. At this stage of the credit cycle, the effects of earlier monetary inflation begin to be reflected in rising prices more widely. This is due to the Cantillon effect, and only now is beginning to be reflected in the calculation of the broad-based consumer price indices. Therefore, prices begin to rise at a higher rate than that targeted by monetary policy, and the central bank has no option but to raise interest rates and restrain demand for credit. But with prices still rising from credit expansion still in the pipeline, moderate interest rate increases have little or no effect. Consequently, they continue to be raised to the point where earlier borrowing, encouraged by easy money, begins to come unstuck.\nA rise in unemployment, and potentially falling prices then becomes a growing threat. As financial intermediaries in a developing debt crisis, the banks are suddenly exposed to extensive losses of their own capital. They are quick to reduce their risk-exposure by liquidating loans where they can, irrespective of their soundness, putting loan collateral up for sale. Asset inflation quickly reverses, with all marketable securities falling sharply in value. The onset of the financial crisis is always swift, and catches the central bank unawares.\nWhen the crisis occurs, the central bank moves heaven and earth to contain it, by effectively writing an open cheque for the banking system to stem the downward spiral of collateral sales. This monetary support is an attempt to stabilise the situation. Consequently, many earlier malinvestments will survive. Over several cycles, the debt associated with past malinvestments accumulates, making each successive crisis greater in magnitude. 2007-2008 was worse than the fall-out from the dot-com bubble in 2000, which in turn was worse than previous crises. And for this reason, the next credit crisis promises to be even greater than the last.\nCredit cycles are increasingly a global affair. Unfortunately, all central banks share the same misconception, that they are managing a business cycle that emanates from the private sector. Central banks through the forum of the Bank for International Settlements or G7, G10, and now G20 meetings, are fully committed to coordinating monetary policies. The consequence is credit crises are now fully global, and potentially greater as a result. Remember that G20 was set up after the last crisis to increase coordination of monetary and financial policies, reinforcing destructive groupthink even more. Not only does the onset of a credit crisis in any one country become potentially exogenous to it, but the failure of any one of the major central banks to contain its crisis threatens to worsen the crisis for everyone else.\nSystemic risk, the risk that banking systems will fail, is now truly global and has worsened. The introduction of the new euro distorted credit cycles for Eurozone members, and today has become a significant additional financial and systemic threat to the global banking system. After the euro was introduced, the cost of borrowing dropped substantially for many high-risk member states. These included all the Mediterranean countries, as well as France, Portugal and even the Irish republic. Unsurprisingly, governments in these states seized the opportunity to increase their debt-financed spending. The most extreme examples were Greece, followed by Italy. Consequently, Eurozone banks became exceptionally highly geared, a situation that persists. Credit cycles for these countries have been made considerably more dangerous by this one-off event, and the task facing the ECB today is more difficult as a result. The unwinding of malinvestments and associated debt has been successfully deferred so far, but the Eurozone remains a major systemic risk and a credible trigger for the next global crisis.\nThe seeds are sown for the next credit crisis\nWhen new money is fully absorbed in an economy, prices can be said to have adjusted to accommodate it. The apparent stimulation from the extra money will have reversed itself, wealth having been transferred from the late receivers to the initial beneficiaries, leaving a higher stock of money and increased prices. This always assumes there has been no change in the public’s general level of preference for holding money relative to holding goods.\nChanges in this preference level can have a profound effect on prices. At one extreme, a general dislike of holding any money at all will render it valueless, while a strong preference for it will drive down prices of goods and services. This is what happened in 1980-81, when Paul Volcker at the Federal Reserve Board raised the prime rate to over 20% to put an end hyperinflation of prices. It is what happened more recently in 2007/08 when the great financial crisis broke, forcing the Fed to flood financial markets with unlimited credit to stop prices falling, and to rescue the financial system from collapse.\nThe interest rate cycle, which lags the credit cycle for the reasons described above, always results in interest rates being raised high enough to undermine economic activity. The two examples quoted in the previous paragraph were extremes, but every credit cycle ends with rates being raised by the central bank by enough to reduce consumer preferences for goods in favour of money.\n\n\nIn the chart above of America’s Fed funds rate, which the Fed uses to manage interest rates, the interest rate peaks joined by the dotted line marked the turns of the US credit cycle in January 1989, mid-2000, and early 2007 respectively. These points also marked the beginning of the recession in the early nineties, the post-dotcom bubble collapse, and the US housing market crisis. The threat to the US economy and its banking system grew with every crisis. Successive interest peaks marked an increase in severity for succeeding credit crises, and it is notable that the level of interest rates required to trigger a crisis has continually declined. Extending this trend suggests that a Fed Funds Rate of no more than 2.5% by the middle of 2017 will be enough to trigger a new financial crisis. The reason this must be so is the continuing accumulation of dollar-denominated private-sector debt.\nConclusions\nThe origin of changing levels of business activity is credit itself. It therefore stands to reason that the greater the level of monetary intervention, the more uncontrollable the outcome becomes. This is confirmed by both reasoned theory and empirical evidence. It is equally clear that by seeking to manage the credit cycle, central banks themselves have become the primary cause of economic instability. They exhibit institutional group-think in the implementation of credit policies.\nTherefore, the underlying attempt to boost consumption, by encouraging continual price inflation to alter the allocation of resources from deferred consumption to current consumption, is overly simplistic, and ignores the negative consequences.\nAny economist who argues in favour of an inflation target, such as that commonly set by central banks at 2%, fails to appreciate that monetary inflation transfers wealth from most people, who are truly the engine of production and spending. They also fail to understand that prices of goods and services in the main do not act like those of speculative investments. People will buy an asset if the price is rising, because they see a bandwagon effect. They do not normally buy goods and services because they see a trend of rising prices. Instead they seek value, as any observer of the falling prices of electrical and electronic products will testify.\nWe have seen that the room for manoeuvre on interest rates has become progressively limited over successive credit cycles. Furthermore, the continuing accumulation of private sector debt has reduced the height of interest rates that would trigger a financial and systemic crisis. In any event, a global crisis could be triggered by the Federal Reserve Board if it raises the Fed Fund Rate to as little as 2.5%. This can be expected with a high degree of confidence.\nThe additional credit that resulted from the creation of the Eurozone has become a major threat to the survival of the Eurozone’s banks, and consequently to their counterparties elsewhere. The likelihood of their failure appears to be increasing by the day, a situation that becomes obvious when one accepts that the problem is wholly financial, the result of irresponsible credit expansion in the past.\nAn economy that works best is one where sound money permits an increase in purchasing power of that money over time, reflecting the full benefits to consumers of improvements in production and technology. In such an economy, Schumpeter’s process of “creative destruction” takes place on a random basis. Instead, consumers and businesses are corralled into acing herd-like, financed by artificial credit. The creation of the credit cycle forces us all into cyclical behaviour that otherwise would not occur.\n\n- Alasdair Macleod\n\n\nhttps://wealth.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/business-cycles-are-credit-cycles",
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