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| comment | | "parent_author":"",<br>"parent_permlink":"gambling",<br>"author":"shutthefrontdoor",<br>"permlink":"statistical-analysis-thursday-15th-march",<br>"title":"Statistical Analysis Thursday 15th March",<br>"body":"<center>![ (https:\/\/steemitimages.com\/DQmZaLKNwvTpfwhRvjnS8PJ52PBZwT7RXXffYiKg7zT54ea\/image.png)<\/center>\n\n\n\nPlease excuse the late posting.\n\n\nCHELTENHAM 1:30\n\n3\/1 Invitation Only,<br> 7\/2 Terrefort,<br> 6\/1 Finian's Oscar,<br>\n13\/2 Benatar,<br> 7\/1 Modus,<br> 15\/2 Shattered Love,<br>\n14\/1 Bigmartre,<br> Snow Falcon,<br> 16\/1 Kemboy,<br>\n40\/1 West Approach.\n\nJLT Novices' Chase\n2m 4f Grade 1 Novice Chase\n7 previous renewals \n\nAll very lightly raced Chasers\nLooks very hard to seperate them\n\nEvery past winner was aged 6 or 7\nHorses aged 5 are 0-4\nHorses aged 8 + are 0-13\n\nTERREFORT is only a 5 year old\nNo horse that age has won this race\nHe is not actually 5 until April anyway\nThat would worry me in these conditions\nHe does have some decent numbers\nBut he is by far the baby in the field\n\nSNOW FALCON is an 8 year old\nNone have yet won this race\nI think he is too exposed with 32 runs\nBesides that his sire Presenting\nHas not get bred a Grade 1 winner\nThat won over 2m 4 for shorter (0-26)\n\nWEST APPROACH is also exposed\nHe is 8 and ran too badly last time\nMODUS is also an 8yo\nNone his age have won this race\nHe is a bit more exposed than ideal\nAnd a flat bred who doesn't want rain\nKEMBOY is well behind on the numbers\n\nBIGMARTRE looks beatable\nHe has more lifetime starts than ideal\nDon't like the fact he comes from a 2m race\nNo past winner did and no others do that\n\nShortlist\n\nFINIAN'S OSCAR has some big numbers\nPulling Up last time drains the confidence\nSome have criticised his trainers campaign\nHard to know whatto expect today\nI don't feel I can rule him out or support him\n\nSHATTERED LOVE is a mare\nNone have so far won this race\nI'd see her as unproven statisticaly\nShe has also been on the go since October\nNot confident about reading her chance\n\nBENETAR has a chance\nBut there are higher rated horses\n \nINVITATION ONLY has to improve\nBut I think he is going to do that\nHe has a solid enough profile\nHis stable dominate this race\nINVITATION ONLY has 9 lifetime runs\nThe last 3 winners had 9 10 10 races\nI see him as a good match \nHe jumped really well last time out\nHe just got outstayed by Monalee\nWho finished 2nd in yesterdays RSA\nThe one box he doesn't yet tick\nHe has no Cheltenham form\nNot his fault and others are unproven\nBoth Terrefort and Shattered Love\nHave not proven themselves here\nNeither have Benatar or Bigmatre\nINVITATION ONLY should go close\n\nSelection\n\nINVITATION ONLY 3\/1\n\nWin Bet\n\n\n\n\n\nCHELTENHAM 2:50\n\n11\/10 Un De Sceaux,<br> 9\/2 Cue Card,<br>\n9\/1 Balko Des Flos,<br> 10\/1 Cloudy Dream,<br>\n12\/1 Frodon,<br> 16\/1 Sub Lieutenant.\n\nRyanair Chase\n\nDisappointing field size\n \nUN DE SCEAUX won this last year\nThat was on Good ground though\nOn ground this bad has to prove stamina\nHis sires record is not entirely safe\nIn Listed and Graded races\nWhen the ground is softer than good\nNone have yet won past 2m 1f\nHe clearly stays better than that\nHe has won over this trip in France\nIt is an issue in a Cheltenham Grade 1\nBut in a very small field\nWhen his market danger is a 12yo\nI am going to assume he will stay\n\nCUE CARD is a 12 year old\nGrade 1 Chase winners that age are rare\nOnly 1 has won in England in 20 years\nIf you look at Cheltenham Grade 1 races\nNone have won aged 12 at any trip\nOnly Moscow Flyer did it as an 11yo\nCUE CARD is rejected because of his age\n\nFRODON has been on the go a while\nAll past winners had 2-3-4 runs that season\nHe has had 6 now on the go since October\nNot sure I would want a 6yo anyway\n\nSUB LIEUTENANT was 2nd last year\nHe has yet to win any Grade 1 Chase\nAnd the ground has gone against him\n\nBALKO DES FLOS is owned by the sponsors\nI do like trip droppers in this race\nDoesn't need to improve too much\nBut the ground may be too soft for him\nAnd confidence is draining away from him\n\nCLOUDY DREAM has some smart numbers\nCombined with some possible excuses too\nHe could have blown up at Newbury\nHe was second to the Gold Cup favourite\nHe may not have stayed before that at Ascot\nHis previous run was too short over 2 miles \nI wouldn't rule him out for a shock result\nUN DE SCEAUX will probably beat him\nHe will probably beat all the others as well\nUN DE SCEAUX is hard to get away from\nBut at the prices I am using him as a saver\n\nSelection\n\n\u00a35 Win Bet UN DE SCEAUX 11\/10\n\n\u00a35 Win Bet CLOUDY DREAM 14\/1\n \n\n\n\n\nCHELTENHAM 3:30\n\n7\/2 Sam Spinner,<br> 5\/1 Yanworth,<br> 11\/2 Supasundae,<br>\n8\/1 Bacardys,<br> 9\/1 Penhill,<br> Unowhatimeanharry,<br> 12\/1 Apple's Jade,<br>\nL'Ami Serge,<br> The New One,<br> 14\/1 Wholestone,<br> 25\/1 Let's Dance,<br>\n25\/1 Lil Rockerfeller,<br> The Worlds End,<br> 33\/1 Augusta Kate,<br>\nColin's Sister,<br> Old Guard,<br> 40\/1 Donna's Diamond.\n \nStayers Hurdle\n\nThe last winner of this race\nWho was aged 10 or more\nWas way back in 1986\n\nUNOWHATIMEANHARRY is a 10yo\nHe has 82 days off the track\nThat would be the 2nd longest absence\nIn the last 20 renewals of this race\nNo horse aged 9 or more\nHas won this absent more than 54 days\nUNOWHATIMEANHARRY is not safe\n\nTHE NEW ONE is also a 10yo\nHe also has to step up from 2m\nI'd see their age as a negative\nHe has 54 days off the track as well\n \nDONNA'S DIAMOND is a 9yo\nI see him as short of runs this year\nOLD GUARD should get found out\nLETS DANCE a mare hammered last time\nAUGUSTA KATE doesn't look good enough\nCOLIN'S SISTER is outclassed\nTHE WORLDS END wouldn't be first choice\n\nPENHILL has been absent 323 days\nIn the last 20 renewals of this race\nThe longest absent winner was 89 days\nThat has to be a major negative\nHe did win the Albert Bartlet last year\nAnd there are rumours he is flying\nThe absence makes him hard to like\nEspecially with 27 runs he is exposed\nAnd his sire would also concern me\n\nLIL ROCKERFELLER was 2nd last year\nThat was a very creditable performance\nAs he had the longest absence that day\nThat was his career best run\nMy main worry is the soft ground\nHis best numbers are on faster going\nNot sure he will get home this year\n \nYANWORTH has been chasing\nNo past winners did that\nHe has been well touted for this\nAnd he has a brilliant strike rate\nBut he has failed on a big stage before\nI would have to question his stamina\nNot convinced he will want it enough\nHis sire was ungenuine\nHe may prove me wrong but not for me\n\nSUPERSUNDAE ran over 2m last time\nI feel that detracts from his chance\nLast years winner did overcome that\nBut generally it is not a positive\nHe won a Handicap at last years festival\nHe hasn't beaten much this year\nBehind Apples Jade twice in small field\nDidn't actually finish ahead of much\nHis win against Faugheen is devalued\nHe will go well but not persuaded yet\n\nBACARDYS has been chasing\nNo past winners did that\nNot the best of preparations\nRaced just once in 124 days now\nOnly had 1 and a bit runs this year\nWorries me for a lightly raced 7yo\nThere are more persuasive cases\n\n\nShortlist\n \nSAM SPINNER has every chance\nHe is a lightly raced improver\nOne worry is no Cheltenham form\nIf he tries and makes the running\nI'd be concerned about his chance\nGiven his lack of experience\nPoor record of front runners I read\n6 year olds with 5 or more starts\nAbsent more than 47 days\nHave a 0-12 record in this race\nSAM SPINNER shares this profile\n \nL'AMI SERGE ran in a Chase last time\nNo past winners did that which is a problem\nBut in a long 27 race career\nHe has only raced 3 times over 3 miles\nAnd those 2 runs on Racing Post Ratings\nWere his 1st 2nd and 6th best figures\nTelling me he is running over his best trip\nAnd he is just the type to get placed\n\nWHOLESTONE was 3rd at last years festival\nHe has an excellent Cheltenham record\nIf you look at his career best run\nHis best Racing Post Rating was here\nIn the Cleeve Hurdle over 3m on heavy\nThat makes him a major player\nSplit Staking this race\nKnowing one place will keep us safe\n \nSelection\n\n\n\u00a32.50 Each Way WHOLESTONE 20\/1\n \n\u00a32.50 Each Way L'AMI SERGE 12\/1\n \n\n\n\nCHELTENHAM 4:10\n\n7\/1 King's Socks,<br> 7\/1 Movewiththetimes,<br> 7\/1 The Storyteller,<br>\n8\/1 Tully East,<br> 10\/1 Last Goodbye,<br> 14\/1 Romain De Senam,<br>\n20\/1 Ballyalton,<br> Drumcliff,<br> 20\/1 Go Conquer,<br> 20\/1 Guitar Pete,<br>\n20\/1 Mercian Prince,<br> 20\/1 Oldgrangewood,<br> 20\/1 Willie Boy,<br>\n25\/1 Ballybolley,<br> King's Odyssey,<br> Village Vic,<br> 33\/1 Midnight Shot,<br>\n33\/1 Pougne Bobbi,<br> 33\/1 Quite By Chance,<br> 33\/1 Shanahan's Turn,<br>\n40\/1 Splash Of Ginge,<br> 40\/1 Traffic Fluide,<br> 40\/1 Ultragold,<br>\n50\/1 Viconte Du Noyer.\n\nHandicap Chase over 2m4f\n\nNumber of Chase runs\n\n34 Ultragold\n30 Quite By Chance\n22 Ballybolley\n21 Splash of Ginge\n18 Village Vic\n17 Viconte Du Noyer\n17 Guitar Pete\n16 Traffic Fluide\n13 Go Conquer\n13 Mercian Prince\n13 Shanahan's Turn\n11 Romain De Senam\n10 King's Odyssey\n8 Oldgrangewood\n7 Tully East\n7 Last Goodbye\n7 Pougne Bobbi\n7 Midnight Shot\n4 King's Socks\n4 Willie Boy\n3 Movewiththetimes\n3 Drumcliff\n3 The Storyteller\n\n \nStarting with some Generic Statistics\n \nCheltenham Handicaps since 1994 \nHorses aged 11 + absent over a month\nHave an unpleasant 1-161 record\nVILLAGE VIC fails this absent 161 days\nBALYALTON also fails it absent 61 days\n\nHorses from Non Handicap Pattern Chases\nCarrying 11st 3lbs or more\nHave a 1-77 record\nBALLYBOLLEY has this problem\nTHE STORYTELLER also has this problem\n\nTHE STORYTELLER fails that by 1lbs\nYou could forgive him that from a big yard\nBut in the last 8 renewals of this race\nHorses with 11st or more are 0-63\nTHE STORYTELLER has that against him\nHe also only has 3 Chase starts\nRecent winners had these chase runs\n5 11 9 8 14 6 12 3 10 33\n9 of the last 10 had at least 5 runs\nThe one that did not in 2010 had 10st 1lbs\nTHE STORYTELLER has 13lbs more weight\n\nCheltenham since 2014\nGraded Handicap Chases\n13 of these races\n13 winners had the following Chases runs\n5 11 6 5 3 11 11 9 11 12 9 8 5\nAll 12 winners were lightly raced Chasers\nHorses with 13+ Chase runs were 0-108\n\nThe following horses are overexposed\nAll have over 13 Chase runs\nULTRAGOLD - QUITE BY CHANCE\nBALLYBOLLEY -SPLASH OF GINGE\nVILLAGE VIC - VICONTE DU NOYER\nGUITAR PETE - TRAFFIC FLUIDE\n\nCheltenham Handicaps since 2012\nChases and Hurdles \nHorses aged 10 + Are just 1-165\nSPLASH OF GINGE is a 10yo\nSHANAHANS TURN is a 10yo\nULTRAGOLD is a 10yo\n \nGo back to 1997 The highest rated winner was 147\nHorses in this race running off 148 or higher\nHad a 0-51 in this race\nIn the last 8 renewals of this race\nHorses with 11st or more are 0-63\nLAST GOODBYE is rated 149\nHe fails this 0-51 handicap mark stat\nHe fails the 0-63 weight stat as well\nHappy to avoid him with 2 runs this season\nTULLY EAST has a rating of 148\nNo winner since 1997 defied that rating\nWorries me he has raced once in 117 days\n \nROMIAN DE SENAM is a 6yo absent 89 days\nThat is a big absence for a young horse\nEvery Cheltenham Festival Handicap Chase\nRun over every distance since 1998\nShow 6 year olds are 6-134\nThose absent over 38 days are 1-58\nThose with over 15 career runs are 0-32\nROMIAN DE SENAM fails both angles\nHe looks too exposed as a 6yo for an absence\n\nHorses with 9 or more career starts\nAbsent more than 10 weeks struggled\nOLDGRANGEWOOD has 14 career starts\nHis 104 day absence looks a problem\nMIDNIGHT SHOT has 138 days off\nHe is too exposed to risk with that absence\nPOUGNE BOBBI is 7 and won last time\nMay not defy a career high mark 48 days later\nMERCIAN PRINCE is on a hat trick\nHis 2 wins in lower grade off lower marks\nHe will need a lifetime best to take this\nDRUMCLIFF is one of the most inexperienced\nIf you look at horses like him from 2m races\nThey have a 0-34 record in this\nHe also has just the 3 Chase runs\nRecent winners had these chase runs\n5 11 9 8 14 6 12 3 10 33\n9 of the last 10 had at least 5 runs\nThe one that did not in 2010 had 10st 1lbs\n\nShortlist\n \n\nKING'S ODYSSEY may want a lower grade\nHas so far been outclassed in graded races\nBut he has bad ground track form\nThat entitle him to win off this rating\nHis 1st 3rd 5th best Racing Post Ratings\nCome over Course\/Distance on soft\/heavy\n\nWILLIE BOY has 104 days off\nLightly raced so thats accepatble\nWell weighted as well\n\nKINGS SOCKS is shortlistable\nIf you look at the 6 year old winners of this\nSince 1967 they have won 4 renewals\nThese 4 winners had 5 4 4 7 runs that year\nKINGS SOCKS only has 1 run this year\nJust 1 run in the last 641 days\nNormally I would avoid him\nBut he is crucially lightly raced\nHe is obviously well handicapped\nAnd 6 year olds in this race\nWith under 11st\nRunning within 6 weeks\nUnder 13 career starts\nHave a 3-10 record in this race\nThat included last years winner\n\nMOVEWITHTIMES is lightly raced\nNot overkeen on his 89 day absence\nThere is encouragement with his numbers\n \nSelection\n\n\u00a34 Win Bet KING'S ODYSSEY 20\/1\n\n\u00a34 Win Bet KINGS SOCKS 8\/1\n\n\u00a31 Win WILLIE BOY 16\/1\n\n\u00a31 Win MOVEWITHTIMES 9\/1\n\n\n\n\n\n\nCHELTENHAM 4:50\n\n4\/6 Laurina,<br> 6\/1 Maria's Benefit,<br> 8\/1 Salsaretta,<br>\n10\/1 Cap Soleil,<br> 14\/1 Countister,<br> \n20\/1 Pietralunga,<br> 25\/1 Cut The Mustard,<br>\n33\/1 Champayne Lady,<br> High School Days,<br>\n50\/1 Angels Antics,<br> Dawn Shadow,<br> 50\/1 Ellie Mac,<br>\n50\/1 Spice Girl,<br> 66\/1 Rouergate.\n\nMarees Hurdle over 2m 1f\nNew race just 2 past renewals\nHard to know what we can do here\n\nMARIA'S BENEFIT is rated 147\nLAURINA is rated 144\n\nEvery other horse\nHas a rating of 136 or lower\nSo we have two class horses\nLAURINA has been all the rage for this\n \nI don't fancy CAP SOLEIL here\nHe is a 5yo absent 82 days\nIn the last 20 years at Cheltenham\nIn all non handicap hurdles\nHorses aged 5\nAbsent more than 68 days\nHave a 0-57 record\nSince that stat lasts 20 years\nI'd hapily pass her over\nCAPSOLEIL is rejected\nSALSARETTA has the same problem\nShe is a 5yo absent 537 days\n\nPIETRALUNGA has 1 hurdle start\nLooks too inexperienced for this\nSPICE GIRL needs lots of improvement\nHer career best Racing Post Rating is 123\nCUT THE MUSTARDS best rating is 124\nThe market leaders have Ratings of 148\nThey do look out of reach\n\nCOUNTISTER looks 3rd best officially\nShe may well end up the main danger\n\nShe should provide some resistance\nShe has 19lbs to find on Racing Post Ratings\nI think she is better than her last run\nThe race was run at a crawl\nShe had plenty in hand at Sandown\nCOUNTISTER is from a high class stable\nMARIA'S BENEFIT is from a small stable\nDeserves great credit for her achievements\nBut she has been on the go since September\nCOUNTISTER could overtake her\n\nShortlist\n\nLAURINA 4\/6\nCOUNTISTER 10\/1\n\nCOUNTISTER without the favourite\nInterests me as a decent value bet\n\nLadbrokes \/Corals 7\/1 win only\nV Chandler 6\/1 Each Way\nSkybet 13\/2 win only\nHills 11\/2 win only\nBet365 are 5\/1 each way\nBetfed and Tote 9\/2 win only\n\nThere are not enough firms\nThat offer prices to go with this bet\n\nCOUNTISTER is 5\/2 in the place market\nI would not want to lay that\n\nI think LAURINA will probably win\nBut at 4\/6 little room for manoeuever\nSo the official selection is riskier\n\nSelection\n\nCOUNTISTER 14\/1\n\nEach Way\n\n\n\n\n\n \n\nCHELTENHAM 5:30 \n\n 9\/2 Squouateur,<br> 5\/1 Mall Dini,<br> 10\/1 Sugar Baron,<br>\n11\/1 Missed Approach,<br> Pendra,<br> 12\/1 Band Of Blood,<br>\n14\/1 The Young Master,<br> 16\/1 Final Nudge,<br> 20\/1 Actinpieces,<br>\n20\/1 Aubusson,<br> Braqueur D'Or,<br> 20\/1 Tintern Theatre,<br>\n20\/1 Wild West Wind,<br> 25\/1 Captain Buck's,<br> Very First Time,<br>\n33\/1 Arctic Gold,<br> Double Ross,<br> 33\/1 Heron Heights,<br>\n33\/1 Millanisi Boy,<br> 50\/1 Marinero,<br> 50\/1 Pressurize\n100\/1 West Wizard.\n\nKim Muir\n3m 2f Handicap Chase\n \nNumber of Chase runs\n\n29 Double Ross\n18 The Young Master\n15 West Wizard\n15 Marinero\n14 Band Of Blood\n12 Actinpieces\n12 Heron Heights\n11 Pendra\n10 Final Nudge\n10 Pressurize\n9 Mall Dini\n9 Missed Approach\n9 Braqueur D'Or\n9 Squouateur\n9 Aubusson\n7 Tintern Theatre\n7 Arctic Gold\n8 Sugar Baron\n6 Wild West Wind\n5 Millanisi Boy\n4 Very First Time\n4 Captain Buck's\n\n\nI don't want 11 year olds\nThat are absent over a month\n \nCheltenham Handicaps since 1994 \nHorses aged 11 + absent over a month\nHave an unpleasant 1-161 record\nThere are 2 horses that fail this angle\nPRESSURISE - DOUBLE ROSS\n \nCheltenham Handicaps Chases since 1994 \n7 year olds with 11st 8lbs or more\nHave a 0-21 record in all these handicaps\nACTINPIECES is a 7yo with 11st 12lbs\nShe is a mare as well and passed over\n\nMALL DINI fails a Generic Statistic\nHorses from Non Handicap Pattern Chases\n11st 3lbs or more Have a 1-77 record\nMaking him a saver despite this\nBecause of his run in last years race\nBRAQUEUR D'OR also fails this angle\n \nTHE YOUNG MASTER is too exposed\nMARINERO doesn't offer enough\n\nBAND OF BLOOD is unsafe aged 10\nHis best numbers are on flatter tracks\nJust makes me worry about the course\nPoor recent record of 10 year olds\nMay be wrong but I don't see enough\nPENDRA also has age against him\nNot to mention topweight and 364 days off\n \nCheltenham Festival Handicap Chases\nRun over 3 miles or more Since 1997\nShow horses aged 6 have a 0-52 record \nThe last 6yo winner in this was in 1971\nCAPTAIN BUCKS fails this Generic stat\nVERY FIRST TIME fails this Generic stat\n\nWEST WIZARD is outclassed\nMILLANISI BOY doesn't offer enough\nHERON HEIGHTS is not running well\nARCTIC GOLD is opposable\nEspecially with an inexperienced pilot\nWILD WEST WIND refused to race last time\nBefore that he fell at the 12th fence\nThat means he has had 1.5 runs this year\nGiven he has a bikg weight of 11st 11lbs\nI'd argue he was underraced this season\n\nTINTERN THEATRE ran 19 days ago\nHe was beaten 47 lengths\nThat seriously damages his profile\nHe's failed to get round in 3 of his 7 chases\n \nFINAL NUDGE has topweight of 11st 10lbs\nWon't be easy to defy that mark\nHis handicap mark is 143\nHe has only won off a mark of 135\nHis best win came in a lower Class 3 race\nHe will need a career best to win this\n \nMISSED APPROACH ran over 4m 1f last time\nNot a safe enough profile\nNot down 7f and with a big weight\n\nAUBUSSON has a fair chance\nNo strong statistical objections\nHe has been hit and miss over fences\nIn a Non traditional chase career so far\nBut his numbers suggest he can win off 135\n\nSUGAR BARON is a lightly raced 8yo\nBeing lightly raced 2 runs this year is fine\nHis last 3 Racing Post Ratings are 141 143 143\nSuggests he can win off a rating of 137\nHis last 2 runs were joint career bests\nHe finished 6th in this race last season\nMore experienced now he could go well\n\nSQUOUATEUR fell in this race last year\nHe was favourite despite being a 6yo\nThat was an impossible task last year\nNo 6yo has won a 3m festival handicap\nHe was going ok when undeating 5 out\nLike this year he comes up from 2 miles\nSame weight and handicap mark today\nBetter chance this year but not easy\n \n\nSelection\n\n\u00a37 Win Bet SQUOUATEUR 6\/1\n\n\u00a32 Win MALL DINI 5\/1\n\n\u00a31 Win SUGAR BARON 10\/1",<br>"json_metadata":" \"tags\":[\"gambling\",<br>\"betting\",<br>\"tips\",<br>\"statistics\",<br>\"sports\" ,<br>\"image\":[\"https:\/\/steemitimages.com\/DQmZaLKNwvTpfwhRvjnS8PJ52PBZwT7RXXffYiKg7zT54ea\/image.png\" ,<br>\"app\":\"steemit\/0.1\",<br>\"format\":\"markdown\" " |
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