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      "body": "Congratulations @rudyfritsch! You received a personal award!\n\n<table><tr><td>https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@rudyfritsch/birthday2.png</td><td>Happy Birthday! - You are on the Steem blockchain for 2 years!</td></tr></table>\n\n<sub>_You can view [your badges on your Steem Board](https://steemitboard.com/@rudyfritsch) and compare to others on the [Steem Ranking](http://steemitboard.com/ranking/index.php?name=rudyfritsch)_</sub>\n\n\n**Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:**\n<table><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-witness-update-2019-05\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/http://i.cubeupload.com/7CiQEO.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/steemitboard-witness-update-2019-05\">SteemitBoard - Witness Update</a></td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemmeetupaachen/@steemitboard/steemitboard-to-support-the-german-speaking-community-meetups\"><img src=\"https://steemitimages.com/64x128/https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmeoNp9iCaCfd2D6TqnWa3Aky2mU4Fm3xaSmjTM91YoNBS/image.png\"></a></td><td><a href=\"https://steemit.com/steemmeetupaachen/@steemitboard/steemitboard-to-support-the-german-speaking-community-meetups\">SteemitBoard to support the german speaking community meetups</a></td></tr></table>\n\n###### [Vote for @Steemitboard as a witness](https://v2.steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=steemitboard&approve=1) to get one more award and increased upvotes!",
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      "body": "The pundits are constantly harping on inflation, hyperinflation, ‘money’ (actually currency) printing etc... With the underlying assumption that Gold price responds to inflation... and that inflation responds to excessive printing.\nNow the connotation of this mindset is simple; belief in the quantity of money theory. That is, the belief that inflation is the result of ‘more money chasing fewer goods’. Mind you, at least this is a better belief system that the more commonly held belief that inflation simply is... and that Central Banks ‘fight’ inflation.\nIndeed, those who hold the ‘printing > inflation’ meme are at least one step closer to the truth. But the reality of inflation is beyond the simple quantity theory; the theory only considers half the real cause of inflation. The first half is the quantity of money; the second half, the other factor leading to inflation and the proximate cause of hyperinflation, is the velocity of money.\nNot often talked about, as TPTB do not want to admit that the ‘all powerful’ CB does not control inflation; that the CB can indeed control money supply, but has no power over velocity. A simple but fundamental way to see this is to consider GDP; the sum total of all financial transactions in one year in one state.\nGDP is simply money supply multiplied by money velocity. Money supply is the actual stock of currency in the economy, more formally called M2. It can be compared to the stock of Gold, vs flow (mine output that adds to the stock). Growth of the money supply means new money borrowed into existence to increase the stock... \nIf the money supply of a state is for example one trillion Dollars, and the GDP is ten trillion, then by definition all the money must change hands ten times in one year. One trillion times ten equals ten trillion...just as surely as one plus one equals two.\nBut notice that if money supply doubles to two trillion, and velocity falls by half, the GDP will still be ten trillion; two trillion times five equals ten trillion. Clearly any claim that quantity of money rules GDP and thus controls inflation is false. The combination of quantity and velocity rule GDP, not quantity by itself.\nSince inflation is not dependent on quantity, the price of Gold is not either; nevertheless Gold price does respond to inflation. As the Purchasing Power of Fiat currency falls, the Fiat price of Gold rises. This is well proven by the historical record; inflation correlates with rising Gold price.\nNow it seems logical to assume that if inflation leads to rising Gold prices, then deflation will lead to falling Gold prices. Unfortunately it seems like this bit of logic is a frail reed; the historical record also shows that the PP of Gold does NOT fall in deflationary times. Do you wonder why not?\nRecall that deflation is seen as a rise in the PP of currency; again, falsely attributed to a drop in the quantity of ‘money’ in circulation; but actually velocity is just as important as in case of inflation. The reality is that if monetary velocity drops for any reason, deflation is the result.\nIn deflationary times, ‘Cash is King’... but then what is cash? Real money (Gold) is cash, Fiat notes are but promises. This fact drives reality; cash Gold, the fizz, the coin, is King; and it’s PP does not fall, but rather tends to rise... even faster than the PP of Fiat rises.\nNow inflation is destructive even in the smallest measure, no matter that CB’s aim for ‘moderate’ inflation; this is like the ‘moderate’ Takfiris in Syria. The ‘moderates’ don’t chop heads; they slice heads off slowly, moderately.\nThe destruction of monetary value is like head chopping in the economic sphere. Holders of hard earned currency loose; the only question is how quickly. Even CB’s admit that rapid inflation is not desirable... but they are terrified of deflation, for good reason. Just like inflation is subject to positive feedback... potentially leading to hyperinflation and collapse... so is deflation subject to positive feedback.\nCB’s are rightfully afraid of deflation especially under Fiat regimes; look at the endless drag of deflation and the concomitant efforts of the Japanese authorities to fight deflation in the Japanese economy. Decades of lost time, constant currency printing, and sill no desired inflation; Proof that quantity does not control inflation... or deflation.\nAs the PP of currency falls with inflation, if the fall is too fast then people start to notice that their currency is losing value; they start to spend it, get rid of it, trade it for something real that does not lose value... like Gold... before they lose even more value. This naturally increases money velocity, leading to even more inflation; a vicious circle that can quickly turn inflation into hyperinflation.\nThe very same feedback effect can occur with deflation; if the PP of currency is seen to be increasing rapidly, people will hang on to it as much as possible, waiting for even more value (even lower prices). The velocity of money falls, and the positive feedback kicks in.\nA rapid deflation is called a crash or depression. There should be a word ‘hyperdeflation’ to describe this state of affairs. Runaway inflation is the mirror image of runaway deflation. Both are crises with similarly destructive effects.\nOn the other hand, a slow, steady ‘deflation’ is actually desirable, and natural under an unadulterated Gold standard. The cost of goods decreases as technology improves, thus the same quantity of money buys ever more goods. The rising PP of real money is (falsely) attributed to deflation... by the same PTB that praise ‘moderate’ inflation.\nNotice that we are starting to approach the real price driver of Gold; the perceived risk of monetary crisis. Gold is a noble metal, not subject to corrosion either by the ravages of time... or the ravages of failed monetary policy. Gold simply is... and the price or perceived value of Gold rises as risk to the Fiat system rises.\nWhich fact leads us to an understanding of Gold valuation; Gold is seen as more valuable in times of rising economic risk. Gold is suddenly in the spotlight as the ultimate risk free asset, the only monetary asset (except for Silver) with no counterparty risk.\nGold is the epitome of quality; not an IOU but real wealth, with thousands of years of historical evidence of its timeless value. By comparison, all other forms of money are inferior; the only question being how much inferior. When paper money is seen as being relatively stable, when the economy appears to be steady and growing, the premium accorded to Gold is reduced.\nWhen paper is seen to be threatened, the economy appears to falter, suddenly Gold is back in favor; and the paper price of Gold grows. This is easy to see in times of inflation, the PP of paper is dropping visible, and holding Gold is a no brainer. In deflationary times, the problem is lack of paper in circulation; this gives Gold a greater immediate monetary role.\nGold will move to help ease the cash shortage; this in turn increases the perceived value of Gold, even as the value of paper also increases. Gold is win win. Gold gains in inflationary times and in deflationary times.\nThe question is, are we now living in peaceful, low risk times... or not? If you are not sure, I suggest a quick read of internet news preferably not mainstream. De-dollarization is going on big time, the wars and war threats in the Middle East, in the Balkans, in the Ukraine, in Korea are festering. There is even an ongoing war on ‘cash’... on paper bank notes held by ordinary people.\nThe ‘price’ of Gold is climbing in recognition of the risks the world faces... climbing in spite of all efforts of G’men and banksters to counter the rise. No agency has the power to stop this rise, although interruptions and setbacks to the rising trend abound. Gold is on its way to assuming its real value, just as Fiat currencies are on their way to assuming their real value of zero.\nRudy J. Fritsch",
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      "body": "Congratulations @rudyfritsch! You have received a personal award!\n\n[![](https://steemitimages.com/70x70/http://steemitboard.com/@rudyfritsch/birthday1.png)](http://steemitboard.com/@rudyfritsch)  1 Year on Steemit\nClick on the badge to view your own Board of Honor on SteemitBoard.\n\n> Upvote this notificationto to help all Steemit users. Learn why [here](https://steemit.com/steemitboard/@steemitboard/http-i-cubeupload-com-7ciqeo-png)!",
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      "body": "Hi! I am a robot. I just upvoted you! I found similar content that readers might be interested in:\nhttp://goldstandardinstitute.net/2017/08/30/the-forgotten-metals/",
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      "body": "Gold has risen in USD price from about $1,150 at the start of 2017 to about $1,300 today; an increase of around 13%, nearly 25% on an annualized basis. Furthermore, the ‘hot’ season for Gold prices is just around the corner.\nDiwali buying by the Indians, Chinese buying for Chinese New Year, the Russians central bank adding tons of reserves, the Muslim world starting to buy with the newly minted Sharia Gold agreement... and major buying by the Turks, around 60 Tons just last month. With Eastern buying soaring, there is plenty of ‘love trade’ to drive the Fiat price of Gold even higher... yet Westerners are seemingly not buying. What gives?\nDo Eastern buyers know something Westerners don’t? Have Western Gold ‘bugs’ been brain washed by the banksters to the extent that Gold is totally out of favor, in spite of ‘facts on the ground’? With civic unrest on the rise, U.S. presidential political wars, more troops to Afghanistan, more lethal weapons to Ukraine, more military muscle flexing towards China and North Korea, more neocons in the White House, more terrorists to Europe, there is plenty of ‘fear trade’ incentive to drive the Fiat price of Gold even higher.\nNevertheless, Western Gold buyers are seemingly asleep; the SPDR fund reserve went under 800 Tons, the US Mint reports slack sales of Eagle and Buffalo coins, and Mr. Barton reports that he had to ‘ring the service bell’ at his favorite coin shop to attract a sales person. Really now, what gives?\nPerhaps most Western buyers are ‘tapped out’... with barely enough currency to exchange for food, never mind for Gold or Silver... after all, near 50% of the US population is on food stamps... perhaps Gold coin dealers do not accept food vouchers in exchange for coins! Or perhaps most ‘discriminatory’ funds available to US citizens are being spent on guns and ammo... is this why S&W, Ruger, Colt shares are spiking?\nWhatever the reasons, the reality is irrefutable. Gold sales in the West are stagnant. Wealth is flowing from West to East, as is civilized culture, as is manufacturing, as is military power, as is agriculture. Russia has reported record bumper crops in wheat, rye, and other grains not seen since the USSR broke up. Gold follows wealth; or wealth follows Gold. I suggest Gold and wealth are the same; both are leaving the West and are heading East.\nNow let’s stay realistic; while the overall status of East vs. West is clear, that is no reason to believe that individuals must go with this flow. Every person, whether Western or Eastern, must make his or her decision regarding ownership of the monetary metals, regardless of the ‘big picture’.\nAs I write this article, Gold has broken a major long term downtrend in play since September 2011. The major funds were waiting for the trend line to be broken; and now are starting to allocate Gold to their portfolios. The SPDR fund has just announced holdings rebound to over 810 Tons. This (belated) Western fund buying simply adds to the momentum being developed by Gold... and Gold mining shares. The GDX is spiking, breaking $24.00 and seemingly heading higher.\nAs for the other monetary metal, namely Silver, it is also starting to move up vs the USD... In general both Gold and Silver move together; sometimes one leads, sometimes the other... but they are joined at the hips. Many Silver bugs prefer Silver over Gold, as it tends to greater volatility, thus offering greater potential Fiat gains.\nAll this adds up to just one thing; the Golden opportunity is upon us. If you have not allocated Gold to your portfolio, it is time to do so. If you already hold some Gold, it’s time to add to your hoard. Such a positive alignment of fundamentals and technical is rare indeed. Far be it for me to try to push any fear or greed buttons... but such golden opportunities are ‘once in a lifetime’.\nI strongly suggest you head out to your favorite coin shop, ring the bell, and sell some Fiat paper in exchange for real money; Gold or Silver. If you delay, there is likely to be a large Que developing soon enough; beat the Gold rush while you can. Remember the famous words; “There is no rush like a Gold rush”.\nRudy J. Fritsch",
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      "author": "cheetah",
      "body": "Hi! I am a robot. I just upvoted you! I found similar content that readers might be interested in:\nhttp://goldstandardinstitute.net/2017/02/12/inside-view-crisis/",
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      "body": "In my last article ‘The Crisis Heats Up’, I wrote about a best-selling book by Strauss and Howe; ‘The Fourth Turning’... and how the authors studied history and drew some interesting conclusions. Namely, they drew the conclusion that we are in a Fourth Turning, a Crisis.\nAs a total readaholic, I confess that I just finished another ‘interesting’ book; this one by James Rickards, ‘The Road to Ruin’. Even though Rickards is hip to history, he does not take a traditional historian’s role.\nInstead, he writes as an insider, a witness to the fatal errors and misconceptions held by the PTB; the trillionaire hedge funds, the ’too big to fail’ banks, the FED, the Treasury; in other words the controllers of the Fiat economy.\nHis thesis is that the tools used by funds, by the fed, and the treasury to ‘manage’ the economy are not only obsolete, but are fatally flawed. These tools are based on false assumptions; assumptions such as the ‘efficient market’ hypothesis, the ‘random walk’, ‘Monte Carlo’ analysis, etc. Rickards believes that the assumptions underlying the most sophisticated computer programs the Fed uses to ‘fine tune’ the economy are wrong from the get go.\nNow this is not a great new insight; New Austrian economists have been pounding the table on these gross errors seemingly forever. We have insisted that the economy is highly non-linear, whereas the conclusions of traditional mainstream economics... projections and policy... are based on the assumption that the economy is linear... and that markets are random; unpredictable with no memory. Nonsense; markets are results of action taken by people, and people do have memory.\nToday these flaws are becoming blatantly obvious; the failure of monetary policy, of demand/supply curves, of Keynesian intervention can no longer be papered over. Rickards draws similar conclusions while coming from a different point of view.\nTo understand the economy, we have to let go of linear assumptions... and also of assumptions that markets are random. Markets and economies are neither random, nor deterministic. Markets are complex. But be careful; complex is NOT the same as complicated. For example, a Swiss watch is highly complicated, but is fully deterministic. Indeed, it is built for that specific purpose; wind it up, and it will run as predictably (deterministically) as technology can make it.\nThe opposite of deterministic is random; like a series of coin tosses is random. The odds of a coin toss coming up heads or tails is 50/50. It is quite impossible to predict the outcome of the next toss, and the next toss does not depend on the previous... coins have no memory. However, the more tosses, the more closely the mean approaches a 50/50 distribution.\nBy definition, complex phenomena lie somewhere between deterministic and random; and any hypotheses based on the assumption that markets and economies are random or deterministic are bound to be wrong.\nFurthermore, a deductive study of economic data is also wrong; statistics (data mining) cannot predict the behavior of complex systems... and the Fed clearly states that its decisions are ‘data driven’. Data is ‘mined’ to determine trends, trends that are then extrapolated into the future... but this methodology leads to huge problems.\nFalse extrapolation and the unanticipated breaking of trends are why we hear about ‘black swan’ events, why CEO’s complain about being ‘blindsided’ by ‘unexpected’ market changes. Markets are complex in the sense of being subject to periods of relative stability interrupted by moments of wild, trend breaking, causality breaking crises.\nComplex systems behave like the proverbial ‘flutter of a butterfly wing in Tokyo causes a hurricane in Miami’. The question is which butterfly; there are thousands, and they all flutter their wings; so which butterfly starts the hurricane... and when?\nEarthquakes are another example of complex systems; we all know that the stress in the Saint Andreas fault is rising, and one day the ‘Big One’ will hit... but when, and exactly how big? Conventional studies are helpless in predicting these non-linear effects.\nAlthough the stress builds steadily enough, and is studied extensively, no one knows when the trend will end, the built-up stress released, and a new trend started. At least, no one using traditional methods knows...\nInterestingly, some (fringe) scientists do make earthquake predictions that are significant. They use out of the mainstream methods and data... like electrical effects, releases of various gases, and even the unusual behavior of animals! Plus, the proliferation of fore shocks.\nRickards also uses out of the mainstream methods; his methods are based on complexity theory. His methods use inductive logic, rather than deductive. Methods like Bayesian probability; a method used by the intelligence community to predict behavior when there is no extensive data set to analyze; there was only one Great Depression (so far) so there is no data base of why depressions occur.\nRather, the Bayesian method looks closely at the single occurrence, hypothesizes the most likely cause, and makes predictions based on the hypothesis... then studies the aftermath, and if the predictions turn out correct, the hypothesis is strengthened.\nTo make a long story short, Rickards considers the 1998 failure of Long Term Capital Management to be a foreshock, predicting greater shocks... and the Big One... to come. He was intimately involved in the LTCM debacle, and reports clearly how the underlying assumptions of the quants and Nobel Prize winners running LTCM were wrong; and how their fundamental error led to the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars.\nIn broad terms, LTCM made bets on the ‘return to the mean’ hypothesis; a belief in economic linearity, a belief based on projections of trends into the future. LTCM found distortions in the markets, and bet heavily that the distortions would be corrected in time; that the markets would ‘return to the mean’. Then they leveraged the heck out of their bets, using 100 and even 200 to one leverage.\nThis worked rather well... for a while... as long as the current period of relative stability held. Indeed, they made hundreds of billions of Dollars for themselves. Unfortunately, greed overcame common sense; a few hundred billion seemingly was not enough. They kept on pushing their method... perhaps aiming for a trillion?\nBut guess what; the butterfly started to ‘flutter its wings’... but this butterfly was in Moscow, not Tokyo. The USSR economy collapsed, and Russian bonds defaulted. Instead of a return to the mean, the mean also started to collapse... quickly.\nWithin a matter of days, as highly leveraged bets went sour, the hundreds of billions disappeared like snowflakes in hades.\nDue to the interconnectedness of the markets, these losses would have brought down other players... like the Italian Government, for one example. The net exposure of the (hedged, therefore supposedly risk free) bets no longer counted; what suddenly counted was the notional exposure. The counterparty supporting the hedge disappeared. The insurance was gone; the leveraged bet was left naked.\nThe problem was so serious that the Fed had to take immediate action; they called in several Wall Street players, knocked some head together, and bailed out LTCM... to preserve the financial system. For the story of LTCM, I suggest you read;\nWhen Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management \nBy Roger Lowenstein\nSo, there was a lesson here; reversion to the mean can fail... and leveraged bets placed on reversion to the mean can fail big time. Was the lesson learned? Clearly not at all... in ten years, we had another, even heavier ‘foreshock’; this time not just a hedge fund in trouble, but sovereign debt in trouble; the Great Financial Crisis of 2008.\nThis time bail outs were not enough; so called bail-ins as well as bail-outs were instigated by TPTB; that is, the money of innocent bystanders was grabbed, to once again paper over the gambling losses. The GFC was the second foreshock, much stronger than the first one; but the lessons still have not been learned.\nThe ‘too big to fail’ banks are bigger than ever, the quantity of Fiat borrowed into existence (the total Global debt) is larger than ever, leverage is greater, interconnectedness is tighter. The ‘Big One’ is getting closer.\nIn the last Fourth Turning crisis, Gray Champion Franklin Delano Roosevelt shut down the bank system (bank ‘holidays’) and confiscated American’s gold... to ‘save the system’.\nThis time around, the problem is much bigger, so it will command much larger, much more drastic measures. Rickards predicts that the whole (digital) financial system will be frozen. Banks closed for sure, along with ATM’s, but also money market funds, stock markets, futures markets, the whole enchilada.\nI cannot disagree with his prognosis; what governments are able to do, they are likely to actually do, in a desperate effort to save the system. Look at the situation; war on cash, promotion of digital ‘money’, and full coverage of every financial transaction... when the tsunami hits, all trends will break; no ‘reversion to the mean’ will be possible.\nNow Rickards does give some advice on how to ameliorate the coming crisis; his suggestion for the system is to reinstate the Glass-Steagall act. This law was passed by the US Congress in 1933, during the Great Depression. It was a law prohibiting commercial banks from ‘speculative’ (gambling) activities.\nIt separated commercial banking from ‘investment banking’... it kept the banks from gambling with depositor’s (our) money. The Clinton administration repealed this law in 1999... Just after the LTCM debacle... and the system has run wild ever since.\nIf the law is reinstated... and Trump has suggested he is in favor of this, and several states as well as congressmen have been pushing the law... then the derivative bomb will be constrained. By Rickard’s reckoning, the separation would reduce risk (instability) by reducing the size... or ‘scale’... of the system. Less at risk, less connectivity leads to more stability of complex systems.\nWhile Glass-Steagall would not reduce the debt problem, it may at least give us more time before the ‘Big One’ hits. Time to change direction, one hopes.\n\nFor the individual, Rickards’s advice is to invest your wealth in a ‘1/3, 1/3, 1/3’ pattern; one third non digital money (Gold, Silver and cash under the mattress... assets that cannot be frozen), one third land, and one third art. I certainly agree with part one; own Gold, Silver, and small denomination cash notes... I have been making this very same suggestion for years.\nLand is a hedge against financial destruction; but it must be owned free and clear, and preferably offshore; extreme taxation/confiscation are not impossible. Owning farm land in particular is brilliant; farm land valued in Fiat has been appreciating for decades, and I suggest this trend will not only continue but will pick up speed.\nArt is also a hedge against inflation and monetary collapse, but there is a learning curve. Unlike bullion or cash, art is subjective and thus a neophyte is at a disadvantage. Nevertheless, 22 carat Gold jewelry (art?) is a great idea, as it is not as likely to be subject to confiscation as bullion coins or bars.\nTo sum it all up, The Road to Ruin is a very interesting book, and I do recommend it. The only negative is that it is not really complete; it does not come to any final conclusions... indeed, Rickards himself intends to write a sequel. Hopefully the sequel will bring closure. I am looking forward to reading it.\nR. J. Fritsch",
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      "body": "Donald Trump is now the POTUS... unless he is impeached or assassinated... either before or soon after inauguration. Neither possibility should be dismissed out of hand. The US deep state is in total panic over what is happening worldwide. Recall that Lincoln and the Kennedy’s were assassinated.\nHegemony and full spectrum dominance are threatened; and seemingly Trump is part of the threat... or not? Perhaps he is simply a tool being used by the Kissinger crowd to further the Anglo/American Empire’s agenda that has been in play for many decades, indeed since Nixon made his historic visit to China.\nKissinger’s idea is for the US to ‘befriend’ the third greatest world power, in order to confront the second greatest power... the power that presents the greatest obstacle to the hegemon. Back in the 1970’s the USSR was the second power, and presented the greatest challenge to US hegemony; China was as yet far from being the great power it is now. Thus, Nixon’s ‘befriend’ China to ‘contain’ the USSR.\nToday China is the second greatest world power... if not already the greatest, especially from an economic perspective; thus the ploy to ‘befriend’ Russia and ‘contain’ China. Indeed, Trump has made noises about this very action; he has named China as ‘public enemy no. 1’, along with Iran, ‘public enemy no.2’.\nTime will tell how all this plays out, but no matter what one thing is sure; the world wide crisis is deepening. As Winston Churchill put it, “The farther backward you can look the farther forward you can see”. Or, according to Santayana, “Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it”.\nTwo authors who took a good long look at the past are William Strauss and Neil Howe. Their 1997 best seller The Fourth Turning examined history, mainly Anglo American history, back to the middle ages. What they found was a cyclical history, not the linear history (of Western Civilization) as usually taught by mainstream education.\nEach historical cycle or saeculum lasts for about 80 years, a typical long human lifetime. Each saeculum is divided into four ‘seasons’, rather like a year is divided into spring, summer, fall, and winter. Each season is one generation long, about 20 years. Strauss and Howe named the four seasons or ‘turnings’ the High, the Awakening, the Unraveling, and the Crisis. Examples of past crises are the Great Depression / WWII, the American Civil War, The American Revolution... and so on back to the Wars of the Roses at the end of the middle ages.\nFollowing WWII, the last Crisis, came the American High in 1946... Then the Awakening in the sixties, the Unraveling in the nineties... and the Crisis we are in, the ‘Millennial Crisis’. The spark that started this Crisis was the 2008 financial meltdown. As each turning lasts about 20 years, we are almost half way through (and not yet at the peak) at least according to the examples of previous historical cycles.\nHistory affects human generations, and humans create history. Clearly a traumatic crisis like WWII will affect the participants and their children (in very different ways); less so their grandchildren, who never experienced the direct effects of the crisis. By the coming of age of the great grandchildren, the crisis is hardly more than a page of (ancient) history. Those who participated in WWII are now almost all gone... certainly retired from power... and society is again vulnerable.\nThe Fourth Turning is not a book of prophecies or predictions; it does not pretend to anticipate what spark sets off the NEXT Crisis... although the debt problem was apparent even back in 1997. Even less so does it try to predict the path of the Crisis; it simply shows how society will respond to a spark, based on historical, generational lessons.\nEach previous Crisis brought about major destruction... of the old social structure... and the creation of a new, different, renewed order. The exact outcomes are not predictable, but the total effect is clear; winter is here, and winter brings death. Spring will renew life, but winter must come before spring.\nSO, it seems that Trump, the Gray Champion of the Millennial Crisis, may play the role that Washington played (Revolutionary Crisis), Lincoln played (Civil War Crisis) and F.D. R. played (WWII Crisis). Now ‘Gray Champion’ does not necessarily mean a nice person; rather, it means a leader with the single minded focus, dedication, and power (of ego?) to ride out the Crisis.\nWill this play out? Will Trump truly be the millennial Gray Champion? Who knows... but all the indications written about by Strauss and Howe are coming into play. I suggest you read the book... and draw your own conclusions. There are several web sites, some by Neil Howe, that bring the predictions of the book up to date;\nhttps://www.theburningplatform.com/?s=fourth+turning\nhttp://www.fourthturning.com/\nhttp://www.lifecourse.com/about/method/insight-overview.html\nThe bottom line is, Trump or not, Gray Champion or not, the Crisis is in play and will play out. We may have Total War, a la WWII but with plenty of nukes, the USA may have another Civil War; the current political and social setup will change radically. End of Empire is at hand.\nThis is the truth behind winter, behind the fourth turning; without crisis, no real change is possible, the embedded PTB would simply continue with business as usual. Crisis knocks over the existing order, giving room for something new and hopefully better to emerge.\nWhat can we do, if Crisis is inevitable, and ongoing? Simply this; just like we prepare for the winter season, we must prepare for Crisis. We prepare by learning as much about it as we can, and by acting on our knowledge. We encourage others to do the same; to retain sanity and balance even when the winds of destruction howl about us.\nWe prepare the storm cellar, with ample supplies and good neighbors to help each other in times of need. As always, especially as the initiating spark is financial... or rather, monetary... we must have a supply of real money on hand; Gold and Silver. Other preparations depend on our specific circumstances.\nEven a squirrel has enough brains to know when winter is coming, and to hoard an ample supply of nuts, hidden away, to help it survive until spring arrives. As Homo Sapiens Sapiens, do we have as much brains as a squirrel?\nRudy J. Fritsch",
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      "body": "The pundits are writing about the US election till the cows come home; right wing, left wing, neocon, neoliberal, alt-right, ad absurdum. Is The Donald a bigot, a misogynist, a white supremacist? Is he part of the 0.1%; is he anti-establishment, what in tarnation is he?\nThe bottom line is that US voters have bitten the bullet; better the devil we don’t know than the one we do know. Kilary and her $upporter$ were and still are clearly on a path towards confrontation, regime change, war... probably WWIII. With The Trumpster as president, chances are that war will be delayed if not avoided.\nIn any case, the answer to ‘making America great again’ is at the fundamental level very simple; the choice comes down to America Great, or Great American Empire. No way to afford both... kind of like LBJ’s ‘Great Society’; guns AND butter, rather than guns OR butter. If the new president actually starts to peacefully dismantle the empire, starts to close the ~1,000 US military bases worldwide, stops insane and expensive regime change wars, then Dollars thus saved could be put to good use rebuilding US infrastructure.\nWith Dollars saved by abandoning empire, the US military may even be able to afford to buy ammunition (cannon shells) for the latest ‘invincible’ US navy destroyer, the Zumwalt... although at $800,000 per shell (!) the price of keeping this marvel (that has broken down again and this time had to be towed out of the Panama canal) armed is insane. Trump will have to truly ‘drain the swamp’... including the totally corrupt US military acquisition swamp... to ‘make America great again’. Good luck to him.\nBut while this entire Trump business is clearly important, there has been very little attention paid to India; India, the second most populous country in the world, India the world’s largest democracy. Mobster Modi has decided to demonetize the 500 and 1,000 Rupee notes; about 85% of circulating currency in India. The purchasing power of these notes WAS about $7.25 and $14.50 US. The results are devastating to the majority of Indians.\nPeople are robbed of their means of survival, people are dying waiting in line at totally unprepared banks to exchange their ‘money’ -that is no longer money- for new ‘money’... but there is hardly any ‘new money’ to be had, except through the mafia, at a 20% haircut. The underclass is dying, while the criminal class is growing fatter by the moment.\nHow desperate can a G’man get to do this? Clearly Modi must understand the devastating consequences of his actions, but is so desperate for funds to keep the game going that he has ignored devastating losses. Indeed, he will likely lose the next election... but by then India will have suffered a great setback. The Indian economy was on a path to grow at ~8% yearly, ahead even of China... but this debacle reduces GDP growth by at least 2.5%... if not more.\nIn the meantime, the mainstream media is reproaching the Indian G’man... for doing a lousy job, for being unprepared, for incompetence... all of which is true, but misses the main point; the MSM is actually in favor of this ‘demonetization’, of forcing Indian people to go begging to the banks, of spreading the lies that demonetization is an effort to ‘overcome money laundering’ and is the proper thing to do... to ‘help the poor’.\nIn other words, robbing the people of their hard earned cash is fine, as long as the theft is done ‘efficiently’ and with ‘competence’. Oh, my aching back!\nBut beyond the insanity and desperation, there is another interesting aspect to all this, an aspect that is NEVER discussed, not even whispered about. Why, demonetization is also ‘devaluization’ if I may coin a phrase. By decree, the Indian G’man has not only destroyed ‘money’ but has turned ‘valuable’ paper totally worthless by the stroke of a pen. The flip side of this, of course, is MONETIZATION... that is, turning totally worthless paper into ‘valuable money’ by the stroke of the same pen. How enlightening!\nIf you take a peek into history, you will see that Silver was ‘demonetized’ by the US G’man in the nineteenth century. By the stroke of the pen, Silver was no longer money (no longer legal tender)... and yet, somehow, Silver was not devaluized. Indeed, a Silver dollar (one Dollar face value coin) made of 90% Silver today buys over 20 US Dollars. Demonetization of Silver money is not equal to devaluization, quite the contrary.\nGold was demonetized in stages, first by FD Roosevelt in 1933, who confiscated (stole) the American people’s Gold and gave them paper in return... at the rate of $20.67 /oz... Then in a few months he marked up the value of the Gold (that is, devalued the paper given to the people) to $35.00 / oz.; a loss of more than 50% of value in a few months.\nThe demonetization of Gold was completed by Nixon in 1971, when he ‘closed the Gold window’... that is, reneged on the US commitment to redeem every thirty five US Dollars for one oz. of Gold, as per the Bretton Woods agreement. Gold was demonetized fraudulently; the honest approach would have been to devalue the Dollar, to balance all newly printed Dollars against physical Gold reserves.\nAgain, demonetization is not devaluization; today, the very same OZ of Gold that bought 35 US Dollars in 1971 buys over 1,200 US Dollars in 2016. Demonetization of Gold money is not equal to devaluization, quite the contrary. It is pretty clear that true value resides in Silver and Gold, while the value of paper ‘money’ is an illusion, an illusion that dissolves at the stroke of G’man’s pen. Fiat demonetization is indeed fiat devaluization.\nI suggest that inflation is but a form of slow demonetization; the loss of value of Fiat currency such as US Dollars, Euros, Zimbabwe dollars... or Rupees... spread over years. Demonetization is inflation compressed into a few days or weeks. Funny how when North Korea demonetized their currency, robbing North Korean citizens, the world yawned. Now that the country with the second largest population on planet Earth has demonetized its currency, we need to stop yawning and wake up before we all pay the Indian price and are demonetized into the poor house.\nDesperation of all G’men is growing rapidly. The theft of a few percent a year... the nominal ongoing inflation of all Fiat currency... is no longer sufficient for the profligate G’men; now it takes confiscation of all wealth to keep the game going for a while longer.\nAlready the EU has ‘demonetized’ the 500 Euro bill, and Citibank in the US has stopped accepting cash (Dollars; legal tender for all debt, public or private). I usually end my articles by suggesting that you keep cash at home; well, I believe this is still good advice, but I suggest small bills. The $100 Dollar bill is under imminent threat. Of course, the best answer is to hold money that has real, not just imaginary value.\nRudy J. Fritsch",
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      "body": "In my last articles I pointed out the fatal flaws of the current ruling paradigm; the paradigm of materialism rooted in dualistic thinking. Materialism not only fails to explain many essential aspects of our reality, but its logical structure also fails.\nMaterialism fails to explain past life recall, reincarnation, near death experience, telepathy, telekinesis and so forth... even though evidence for all these phenomena is well documented and statistically unassailable. Materialism fails to explain the origin of life on Earth, speciation, consciousness... and yet science is holding on to this false belief system, this illusion, seemingly at all cost.\nMaterialism also fails by internal logic; matter, considered fundamental by materialism, is convertible into energy and energy into matter. Nuclear energy and particle accelerators do this conversion every day, without doubt. If matter were truly fundamental, the ultimate basis of all existence, this conversion could not happen.\nFor matter to be converted into energy and for energy to be converted into matter there must be a common functioning principle through which the conversion occurs... and the CFP of matter/energy must by definition be more fundamental than either matter or energy. Matter and energy are the flip sides of a more fundamental CFP, whatever it may be.\nThe power of illusionary belief is immense; mainstream science is constrained by false belief, by illusion. The dogmas of materialist science are rooted in illusion; no evidence showing the failure of the prevailing paradigm or illusion is examined or even admitted to exist. The taboo against such investigation is too powerful for all but a few mavericks who investigate reality in spite of mainstream dogma.\nHistory is filled with examples of the power of illusion; when the illusion that the Earth is flat prevailed, voyagers were afraid to travel out to sea because they would ‘fall off the edge’. When Galileo showed that the Earth is not at the center of the universe, the powers that be... in his case cardinals of the Catholic Church... refused to look through his telescope. Looking at the evidence was forbidden by taboo. Looking and seeing would have been an admission that their beliefs, aka illusions, were wrong.\nEventually all illusion is shattered; once the illusion of a flat earth vanished, sailors crossed the seas without any fear of ‘falling off the edge’. Once the illusion that the Earth is at the center of the universe vanished, science and cosmology progressed without hindrance.\nThe biggest illusion of all is the illusion of power. Specifically, real power is conflated with illusion of power. The US military is arguably the most powerful in the world. The destructive power inherent in the myriad guns, bullets, rockets, and bombs this military commands is beyond doubt. The illusion lies in the belief that a single man, the Commander in Chief, controls this awful power. The illusion is that hundreds of thousands of humans acts at the whim of one person; that the ‘chain of command’ represents real power.\nThe chain of command is an illusion, and has power only if and as long as the illusion remains intact. Mutinies, military stand-downs, revolutions, civil wars are all examples of shattered illusion. Once shattered, illusion loses power. Such is the fate of all illusion, even if extraordinary efforts are made by TPTB to maintain an illusion.\nIn the Soviet military, once considered the second greatest power on Earth, communist ‘commissars’ accompanied the troops... to make sure that orders were obeyed, that the illusions of Communism were upheld, at the pain of death. Indoctrination, brainwashing, threats are used to maintain the status quo, the ruling illusion... but eventually the illusion shatters, and the power of the illusion vanishes.\nAt this very moment in history we are witnessing the destruction and imminent breakup of the power of a major illusion. Ebola is a horrific affliction but it brings another illusion to the forefront. If Ebola truly goes ‘viral’, the illusion of the power of mainstream medicine will be shattered at a wondrous pace.\nIn a recent interview, an American doctor gave away the illusion, by pointing to its heart. Many other doctors see the truth, see through the illusion... see truth that is being withheld by ‘the powers that be’, with the excuse that ‘we must act to prevent panic’.\nAnother American doctor, just back from Sierra Leone, has shown that Ebola can be cured by a simple method of blood treatment using ozone. The ozonation of blood kills the Ebola virus, and helps to regulate the immune system. Immune system over reaction to viral invasion seems to be the proximate cause of symptoms and death; Ebola is an autoimmune disease.\nThe powers that be refuse to allow ozone treatment... because it is taboo, because it violates the current illusion that vaccination is the answer... and to be brutally frank; there is no wealth to be made using ozone therapy. Ozone is dirt cheap, vaccines are lucrative.\nThe reality is that ozone treatment is forbidden... at the pain of a doctor losing his license to practice. But this ‘license to practice’ is just a piece of paper. Who cares about a piece of paper if nasty, immanent death threatens? Even though many doctors still obey, others are ready to shatter the paradigm in spite of threats by ‘TPTB’. The threat of death by Ebola is stronger than the threat of losing the piece of paper.\nReal power lies in the power to cure, not in the piece of paper. As the truth emerges that a cheap, safe, easy method to cure the horror of Ebola exists, and that some doctors are using this method to save lives, the power of truth will easily overcome illusion. The power of the medical establishment will shatter and scatter like chaff in the wind.\nThis brings us full circle to the most insidious, destructive illusion of all; the illusion that Government issued paper with numbers printed on it is money. This pernicious illusion underlies the power to control and manipulate the world economy to the benefit of the perpetrators, at the expense of the rest of humanity, the victims.\nEnormous power lies in the illusion of Fiat ‘money’... but like all illusion, is subject to being shattered by truth. Once the illusion of the ‘faith and credit’ that purportedly backs Fiat currencies is destroyed, a new era of real money will emerge. Real money, Gold; not paper notes borrowed into existence without limit. Truth will replace the illusion and lies of Fiat.\nJust as the power of a gun is real, but the power to command where the gun is aimed is an illusion, just as the power to cure disease is real but the license to cure is an illusion... so the power of Gold to extinguish debt is real but the power of Fiat is illusion.\nRudy J. Fritsch",
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      "body": "Awesome post guy. The title led me to believe this was going to be another holocaust memorial blog, but I was pleasantly surprised after reading.",
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      "body": "In my last article ‘Remember Nuremberg’ we examined the propensity of Humanity to look outside and ‘up’ the hierarchy for answers; and the devastation brought about by the abuse of this propensity by psychopathic power seekers.\nWe saw how, by looking to the ‘elites’ (better called leeches) for answers, we are misled again and again. We saw how the propensity to look to ‘authority’ leads to betrayal and disaster. The upshot is that we look outside for direction; “tell me what to do, Boss, and I will do it. Tell me what to think, Guru, and I will think it. Tell me who to shoot, Sergeant, and I will shoot him. Tell me what money is, Bankster, and I will sweat and grovel for it.”\nThose who have follow Gold Standard writing will understand that Fiat currency, that is the banksters’ counterfeit money, is fundamental to the depredation of human society. The enormous, unpayable debts, the destruction of productive enterprise, the insane unbalances of payment, the constant wars and terrorism and bloodshed are all funded by Fiat.\nNone of this is possible under a Gold Standard. But this is just the economics of Fiat; the harm it causes goes much deeper than just economics, no matter how important economics is. Honest money underlies honest political and societal systems.\nMy father, may he rest in peace, was a practical man. He hated priests and religion, in the belief that most priests were simply parasites; and that religions were designed to control people, mainly for the benefit of the parasites. He had and often used what he called ‘shoemaker logic’; that is, (un) common sense. He did not respect ‘book learning’... and again, I see that he was right. Most ‘book learning’ today is simply indoctrination.\nOne of his astute observations was ‘the fish starts to spoil from the head’... now just wrap your mind around this. What he was saying was ‘society starts to spoil from the top’... and by golly, this is ever so true. When the leadership is corrupt, mendacious, selfish, criminal... then that is the direction of society as a whole.\nMost governments in the Western world are out of touch with reality, and out of touch with the needs and desires of the great majority. Rules and laws are written for the benefit of the 0.01%... and damn the rest. Surveys show that Western leaders and parliaments are at historic lows as far as popular support. Most Western leaders, presidents and prime ministers have historically low approval ratings, many in single digits.\nCoups and putsches, rebellion, terrorism and civil war are on the rise. Trust is rapidly fading. Once trust in leadership dissipates, the ramifications start; do we trust the mainstream media to tell us the truth? Haw. The same leeches that own governments own the media... no trust there. Do we trust the corporate world? Haw. The big ‘money’ that owns government and media come from big corporations... how could we possible trust them?\nDo we trust what we see and hear on the Internet? Haw. The thousands of trolls spreading lies and half-truths are paid by the same ‘big money’... so even here, we have no choice but to look inside ourselves for the truth. But surely, the leeches must trust each other... after all, they are after the same thing; our wealth... and yet even this ‘trust between thieves’ is fading.\nThe talking heads of mainstream media are constantly blathering about the Fed’s latest moves... specifically raising/lowering/ holding interest rates. Zirp and Nirp are fodder for all the pundits, with even the ‘alternative’ media constantly examining, commenting, predicting... and all this is but ‘sand in the eyes’. The really significant interest rate is hardly ever even mentioned.\nHave you even heard the mainstream talk about LIBOR? Yet Libor is a key indicator of what is actually happening in the financial system. Libor stands for London Interbank Borrowing Rate; the interest rate charged by one bank to another, for short term loans, one or three month, mostly.\nOther things being equal, this rate is set by the overall Fed rates, and Libor is really just a mechanism to net out short term noise in cash flows, as one bank may have a bit of cash surplus, while another a deficit. The noise or ripples tend to even out in the longer term...\nWell, Libor has been soaring. In the last few months, it has risen by over 40%; and this in the face of no raises in interest rates by the Fed in a year, by more and more negative rates from ECB and BOJ and BOE et all. So, why this soaring Libor? The last time Libor soared with no apparent cause was... hold your breath... the 2008 GFC.\nClearly, the thing changing is trust... between banks. As the trust of one bank for another declines, the premium charged for borrowing goes up. This is called risk premium. And surely, with the stress being felt by Banca Monte dei Paschi, Italy’s oldest bank, by Deutche Bank, by Wells Fargo... the list is endless... this is only to be expected. Banks making loans to each other are pricing in perceived risk.\nNow keep in mind that G’men all over the world have been and are bending over backwards to prop up the banking system; zero percent loans, TARP funds, bail outs, bail ins... and yet the banks, who know best what is going on, are still seeing increased risk, regardless.\nThe problem is that the derivatives exposure of banks is in the quadrillion dollar range; a quadrillion is a thousand Trillion! There is by far not enough ‘money’ in the world to cover this risk. No amount of bail in, bail out, wealth tax, or money creation (except for totally over the top hyper inflationary Zimbabwe style printing) can cover the ‘notional risk’.\nLibor is in reality the ‘canary in the Gold mine’. The poor canary has tumbled from its perch, and is choking and flopping around in the poop at the bottom of the cage. It will soon die. Just as, with ever increasing risk, no amount of interest surcharge will do; once risk is over a tipping point, no promise of interest can cover the risk; only cash will be accepted. The world financial system is devolving to COD; that is a credit freeze and consequent financial collapse.\nOnce again we cut to the chase; to protect ourselves from the inevitable collapse, we must do several things; hold some cash out of the banking system. Hold assets off shore, out of reach of our grasping greedy desperate G’man... and mostly, own real money; Gold and Silver.\nRudy J. Fritsch",
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      "body": "If this topic has not yet been sent ‘down the memory hole’, you will recall the Nuremberg Trials, where the victors of WWII brought Nazis to trial for war crimes. The main theme that emerged at Nuremberg was the criminal Nazis’ defense; they claimed to be ‘just following orders’... and thus claimed to be innocent.\nThe judges made a different call; that there is a ‘Higher Morality’. Following orders was rejected as a defense. Many Nazis were found guilty, many were executed, and many jailed. Hmm... \nOf course, no one has (yet) brought Allies to trial for their war crimes. By Nuremberg logic, ‘following orders’... like Truman’s order to nuke and murder unarmed residents of Hiroshima and Nagasaki is a crime against ‘Higher Morality’. Following Churchill’s order to burn Dresden to the ground was a crime against ‘Higher Morality”. How interesting.\nNow POTUS supposedly has a plaque on his desk that says ‘the buck stops here’... that is, the President is the highest authority in the land... but Nuremberg disagrees with this. Indeed, did Bush not say that he was ‘following God’s commands’ when he bombed Iraq? So where does the ‘buck’ really stop?\nThis is distressing... ninety percent of Humanity simply wants to ‘follow orders’; tell me what to do, Boss, and I will do it. Tell me what to think, Guru, and I will think it. Tell me who to shoot, Sergeant, and I will shoot him. Tell me what money is, Bankster, and I will sweat and grovel for it.\nHumanity is a social species, oriented to ‘getting along’... and in a small tribe, with up to a few hundred members, ‘getting along’ is simple and works well. The natural elites are easily recognized, and following the suggestions of wise seniors is a no brainer, indeed a survival issue. Unfortunately, this does not work so well in larger societies... like in the seven billion global tribe.\nThe boss looks to the supervisor, the guru looks to the ayatollah, the sergeant looks to the general, the bankster looks to the central bankster... most of us look outside and ‘up’ to decide ‘what to do’. Now if our leaders were honest, and decent, and had the best interest of the ‘tribe’ on hand, this could be fine. Reality is somewhat different.\nAbout five percent of humanity are recognized as being psychopaths; as being not fully human. No conscience, no remorse, no empathy... but lots of greed, power hunger, and cunning. Most ‘leaders’ today are psychopaths, pathological liars  who repeatedly  bring on wars, mayhem, genocide, whatever it takes to achieve their power hungry goals... most ’leaders’ today are candidates for a new Nuremberg trial.\nThe remaining five percent are fully human, and awake and aware; cognizant of the masses of ‘sheeple’ being led to the slaughterhouse. This small percentage recognizes the lies and false flags invoked by the ‘leaders’; and they are working hard to wake up the befuddled, zombified majority. Hopefully the readers of TGSI are among this truly elite five percent!\nThe key to resolving the Human problem of eternal war and destruction is simple, but not easy. Even in holy books, presenting religion’s concept of ‘higher morality’, we can find answers. The Bible says ‘the Kingdom of Heaven is within you’... in plain words, stop looking for morality and truth outside; you will only find false narratives, spread by lying psychopaths determined to enslave you.\nLook inside, where truth is to be found. As the Buddha said, believe only that which you understand and know to be true. Humanity has the tools it needs to figure things out, if it but uses the tools. Don’t ask the ‘Boss’ what to do; see what needs to be done and do it. Don’t ask the ‘Guru’ what to think, think for yourself. Don’t ask the ‘Sergeant’ who to shoot... or not to shoot. Decide for yourself.\nFinally, don’t ask the ‘Bankster’ what money is; figure it out.  Ten thousand years of Human history prove without any doubt that Gold is money. Repeated collapse of Fiat paper throughout history proves without any doubt that Paper promises are NOT money.\nFor over two thousand years, humanity has preoccupied itself with seeking answers... outside themselves. History shows this has been and continues to be a dismal, horrific failure; hundreds of millions of innocent humans have been most cruelly sacrificed, often to the ‘Greater Glory of God’... but which God?\nEvery religion claims the only true path... to an external, all powerful God. But there is no need to search and fight to find the ‘right’ God; a divine spark is always within us, we just have to recognize this spark of creativity and start creating heaven on earth, rather than hell. Begin by ignoring the external programming and manipulation, and start paying attention to self-derived truth.\nThe truth of Gold money will disallow the power grab, the eternal wars, mass destruction and genocide. No more empire! Gold is the great economic equalizer; in circulation, Gold limits debt, limits speculative gambling, pulls power concentrated in a few immoral hands and distributes it amongst the majority of decent, fully human people... the ninety five percent.\nWith Gold in the people’s hands, there will be no insane Zirp and Nirp ‘policies’... no Deutchbank derivatives crash, no twenty trillion Dollar and growing unpayable US debt. No insane military answers to dissent, no ‘might makes right’. No destructive ‘military industrial complex’. No more ‘bombing back to the stone age’.\nGold does not finance major military spending; this is only possible with Fiat issues and Fiat debt. WWI was financed by paper. Indeed; the Gold standard was sabotaged so WWI could be financed. Every destructive war of annihilation is financed by ever more Fiat debt.\nBuy Gold now; not only for your own protection, but for the liberation of humankind.\nRudy J. Fritsch",
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