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      "body": "<html>\n<p><center><strong>The Importance of Solitude</strong></center></p>\n<p>Looking back at my first few years attempting to trade I can't help but cringe thinking about how doomed my approaches were from the start, the poker term being drawing dead preflop. Whether it was taking suggestions from the daily ForexLive trade ideas, entering longer-term fundamental positions based on financial news articles, and even seeking out supposedly professional management services, the outcome was always going to be the same. The worst part about all of these strategies was that I not only did myself a great disservice by learning absolutely nothing but also poisoned my mind in the process.</p>\n<p>As humans we are naturally social creatures and when it comes to things of uncertainty, such as gambling, that is amplified as we seek reassurance that what we are doing is correct. This is the reason why most poker players are part of a chat group. Especially when going through extended downswings where their supposedly&nbsp;+EV decisions go unrewarded for so long, they need to be reassured their decisions are indeed&nbsp;+EV as it is only natural to lose confidence. The problem when it comes to trading is that there isn't anyone to turn to and seeking such help will usually have the opposite effect.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>When most people first get into forex they start with Babypips.com to learn all of the basics, which don't get me wrong is certainly helpful. However, one of the main writers for the site made an article about his trading performance for the year, which was something ridiculously pathetic like 1.9% well into the 3rd quarter. How can you possibly take anything that guy writes seriously, especially when you consider how long he's been in the game? It is the equivalent of a self proclaimed poker pro who's been playing for over 10yrs and is still buying in for $300 in a 2/5 game.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>To wrap up my thoughts on this subject of solitude I want to summarize the various social aspects of forex for what they really are. On ForexFactory what you have are threads which discuss planetary solar cycles being used to predict euro patterns; indians whose post counts are higher than their balances, posting screenshots of their 1-minute chart analysis. ForexLive is a massive news feed of hindsight analysis and various financial data that serves little to no purpose, and every so often the veteran traders who run the site will come out with suggestions, quoting themselves repeatedly if they are right but making no mention of it again if they are wrong. On every social media outlet you have these parasite con artists trying to sell you their worthless systems and signal services, even going so far as to photoshop their trading portfolio. Absorbing this information will only cloud your judgment down to the subconscious level, either through eroding your conviction or giving you a false sense of security. I cannot stress enough how distressing it was to see two supposedly successful traders who I respected having opposing views, of course the plot twist being that they were both a fraud.</p>\n<p><center><strong>Timing &amp; Volume</strong></center></p>\n<p>After extensive backtesting I have come to realize just how important timing truly is. Upon reaching the dreaded weekend at the end of a usually unprofitable trading week I would anxiously start counting down the hours until the Sunday open. Examining breakouts of the previous week I would try to figure out why they occurred, why they stopped at a particular price level, and how it slipped under my radar. In my personal studies I found that for most pairs the largest moves occur around the London open during the first half of the week, the early hours of the NY open (dependent on data) during the latter half of the week, and on Wednesday 2pm EST with the occasional FOMC event. This is obviously basic information, but when you look at a number of these moves you start to see that the 3am breakouts have consistent follow-up pressure, the 9am or 10am breakouts have a much higher rate of sharp reversals, and the 2pm breakouts consolidate relatively quickly. Such information is crucial to avoiding false breakout setups even after waiting for the hourly close, though as simple as it may seem most people are oblivious to it.</p>\n<p><center><strong>Technicals</strong></center></p>\n<p><em><strong>Textbook Breakout Trade</strong></em><em><strong>.</strong></em> The most ideal trade setup is when a period of well-structured consolidation is followed by a wickless 1h breakout close around the London open that has adequate room to run. Well structured meaning that there is a strict, clearly-defined range to confine any volatility, almost as if there was an invisible rectangle containing the wicks, as opposed to a sloppy one where these wicks are protruding. Adequate room to run meaning that the breakout has the potential to freefall/skyrocket with no major S/R levels nearby, or that the breakout extensions before the consolidation weren't a choppy mess and provide well defined targets. It is very important that a breakout does not close precisely at the previous high or low for the week because there is a high chance of forming a double top, even if it closes with no wick rejection. You most often see this setup materialize when a pair begins to consolidate for 12+hrs starting from around noon ET up until the wee hours of the morning, remaining in a &lt;20 or &lt;30 pip range before finally making a decisive break.</p>\n<p><center><img src=\"https://i.imgur.com/yu8ytHx.png\" width=\"640\" height=\"358\"/></center></p>\n<p>This is an example of what I mean when I say that I go back to examine historical chart data. In this particular analysis what I did was note the start of a consolidation period followed by the eventual breakout and its size. As I previously mentioned they generally start around noon as liquidity fades and end in the twilight hours as London opens. The interesting thing to take away here is that when the breakouts come out of these clean ranges they have consistent follow-up, meaning that if a pair broke out for 30 pips it quickly goes into profit and continues for an additional 30 pips, providing a reliable 1:1 RR setup. The Thursday rally didn't have this same continuation because it was coming out of a choppy mess which doesn't provide the opportunity for stops to build up both above &amp; below a range to fuel the inevitable break.</p>\n<p><em><strong>Moving Averages</strong></em>. I have never been a fan of technical indicators because to me they just complicate what should otherwise be a very simple &amp; straightforward approach, not to mention the fact that the vast majority of them don't even work. However, I find the moving averages to be an exception because apart from basic support &amp; resistance levels this is the most widely used form of technical analysis. Because those price levels are being incorporated into most trading strategies these levels actually hold great significance, unlike wave structures and fibonacci levels. Where this gets tricky is the MA is completely dependent on the numbers you input on the timeframe you are using and there really is no right or wrong.</p>\n<p><br>\nI mainly rely on the 30m EMA 14 with the SMMA 7 on the 30m, 1h, and 4h timeframes being used for further confirmations. Because moving averages are very similar to trendlines it may seem overly simplified but when you really backtest this and experiment with various inputs you'll begin to realize how useful this really is. When a moving average crossover occurs on the 30m/1h/4h chart simultaneously it provides a very clear cut setup.</p>\n<p><br>\n<em><strong>Orderbook Flow</strong></em><strong>.</strong> Oanda is one of the only brokers to showcase its clients' positions in an orderbook that anyone can view. Since it is reasonable to conclude that the market will move in a manner in which the most amount of traders get screwed out of their money, it seems like the perfect strategy to simply position yourself against the masses when it is clear that they are overwhelmingly on one side of a trade. It makes perfect sense but at the same time it sounds too good to be true...and it is. It is difficult to explain how a currency pair can continue to skyrocket when 85% of retail traders are long and the logical expectation would be a vicious stop hunt to the downside. This is not to say that retail positioning data such as the CFTC reports are completely useless, but they certainly don't hold much value.</p>\n<p><center><img src=\"https://i.imgur.com/5EQwfxa.png\" width=\"309\" height=\"320\"/></center></p>\n<p><center><strong>Execution</strong></center></p>\n<p>This strategy portion of the blog has actually been edited off and on for months. In the end I decided to cut out a lot and keep it simple because anything more is simply unnecessary. It may seem like this is very easy to do, but like anything else it is much easier said than done. I have encountered many poker players who you would think are solid, winning players based on the way they can come across as very knowledgable and competent in a discussion. However, that completely changes observing their actual play as they just don't seem to have the discipline to execute what they just talked about. This is why I judge players solely on their play alone (notice I did not say results).</p>\n<p><br>\nI am very outspoken about how detrimental it is to expose your mind to the trading content out there which provide nothing of value. However, there is one thing I stumbled upon which is undoubtedly valuable, and those are the free videos from trading mindset coach Rande Howell. The reason this is an exception is rather than discussing actual strategy he talks about cultivating the right mindset and learning to master your emotions, similar to the SchoolofCards youtube channel which is the only beneficial poker content I've found. For me the hardest part about executing these trades properly is patience, which is ironic because in poker my discipline is unrivaled. It is not easy going from a 5/10 $2500 buyin game to a 1/2 $300 max game; in fact for most people it is so humbling that they find it too humiliating to do it. I am in such a rush to get back to my previous financial status that my anxiety shrouds the way to get there.</p>\n<p><br>\nThere are many things Rande Howell teaches that you wouldn't hear anywhere else and they make perfect sense. He talks about the dangers of fantasizing and wishful thinking, of visualizing yourself being a successful trader. Doing this makes us feel good, and to the brain that is the success, which is self-sabotaging because we trick our subconscious into thinking we have already achieved that success. People always like to make the uneducated comparison of trading to poker, but Rande says one of the main reasons that people who are very successful in their line of work can't transition into trading is they come into it thinking that what made them successful in their former profession will also help them in this one. The hard-working go-getting attitude of making things happen simply doesn't work in trading like it does in everything else. Another point I've found very helpful is to stop looking at your P&amp;L statements, which is similar to examining poker in BBs rather than $ amounts, because whether we admit it or not it will subconsciously have a negative influence.&nbsp;</p>\n</html>",
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      "body": "<html>\n<p><strong>My Background</strong></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://i.imgur.com/GZIHBgp.jpg\" width=\"640\" height=\"1136\"/></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://i.imgur.com/JmGroQo.jpg\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\"/></p>\n<p>I have been trading forex off and on for the past 4 years. For the first 3 years I learned absolutely nothing because no matter what my approach was it was essentially blindly following others, whether that be through trade signals, worthless courses, and even handing over control of my actual account. In just the first few months I learned more through my own trial-and-error than years of garbage teachings. Ironically the core fundamentals that really made me breakthrough and finally become profitable are things that none of these self-proclaimed gurus would ever even know about. I've realized the hard way that those who cannot do...teach. Anyone out there in this industry trying to sell you something is a scammer, plain and simple.</p>\n<p><strong>My Experience with Michael Norman/Pitbulleconomics</strong></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://i.imgur.com/OhXMZy5.png\" width=\"1008\" height=\"489\"/></p>\n<p>A little over a year ago now I had by far the most financially successful month of my life, winning a total of $65k after one of my good friends final tabled one of the biggest poker tournaments of the year for nearly half a million, of which I had 10%. Shortly after that I deposited a $50,000 brick into my bank account and immediately wired it into my Oanda account. Within 3 weeks of daytrading the account was sitting at over $75k, of which I freely admitted was largely due to luck. I booked a trip to Europe to enjoy my recent success and started to seek out professional help in managing my account while on vacation because I still wanted to grow my account a little while staying away from the stressful screens.</p>\n<p>After stumbling upon an article regarding bad trading advice which I highly resonated with, I did more research into the author Michael Norman, though clearly not enough. He runs the basic looking website pitbulleconomics.com, posts multiple videos per week on youtube, and for his paid subscribers sends out a weekly newsletter called MMT Trader Report. Though I was skeptical of all trading services I figured him to be different because he had such a unique contrarian approach and boasted about having no losing trades in 2016.</p>\n<p><br>\nTo keep a long story short, I signed up for his newsletter which also came with personal email correspondence. Though he immediately gave a series of bad recommendations, as someone with a very high risk-tolerance I understand the severity of variance and figured this to be a bump in the road. The major call which followed was so unbelievably bad that going into the trade its actual outcome didn't even cross my mind as a worst case scenario. He advised to go short EUR/GBP at .8406, a position which not only went over 1000 pips underwater peaking at .9430 during the pound flash crash, but one that he also added onto and screamed at his followers to hold onto and not panic on. I lost an enormous amount of money on this trade, but the worst part was as it kept sinking deeper into the red he continued to cull his subscribers into financial ruin with the false reassurance that everything would be ok.</p>\n<p><br>\nIt is difficult to keep the summary of what happened concise without leaving out key details. In essence what Michael Norman does as a contrarian trader is proudly trade against the masses every single time, something which doesn't sound too unreasonable in theory but seeing as it clearly lacks any sort of adaptability is a seriously flawed approach. Trading against the masses is also a very ambiguous term as the Commitment of Traders Report (COT) is often misinterpreted and applied incorrectly. After truly delving into Michael Norman's history and carefully examining the FX trades in the previous MMT newsletters what I found was that there were many trades which would immediately go 300+ pips underwater and once it reversed months later he would close the trade out for a 10 pip gain and call it a win. If he does not block you his default response is to claim that you are overleveraged, but if you are risking so little that -1000 pips is not a big deal, then obviously +100&nbsp;pips means absolutely nothing. Clearly this is an unsound trading strategy, but just like every other fraud trying to sell you something in the forex world he covers this up by deleting the majority of the comments on his videos.</p>\n<p><strong>Financial Devastation</strong></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://i.imgur.com/B6yG2ik.png\" width=\"968\" height=\"804\"/></p>\n<p>After losing almost $45k on the EUR/GBP disaster and bringing the NAV of my formerly robust account all the way down to $10k, I was still going through volatile swings but ultimately making a nice recovery. Prior to the night of the presidential election my account was at around $38k and I wanted to place an enormous bet on Trump but there was no way I could place a very large bet on such short notice. I decided to bet on him by going all in on a USD/JPY short from 104.00, my reasoning being that a Clinton win (supposedly USD positive) was already heavily priced in, but that there was no floor for a Trump upset (supposedly USD negative). At least that was what the talking heads of the trading world stated...</p>\n<p>A few hours into the trade it peaked at&nbsp;+31k but it was mostly hovering at&nbsp;+20k with extreme fluctuations. I wasn't exactly sure where to exit but many veteran posters over on Forexlive, including the owner of the site himself were calling for USDJPY to break below the 100 figure. When I posted updates of the trade to my poker chat group I was told that being up 15k was no big deal, that it was \"meh,\" not anything worth bragging about. I am not trying to make it sound like I'm blaming others, but their comments of both Forexlive and my chat group greatly influenced my decisions to keep holding the trade. This taught me the need to keep my trading private, as there really isn't any good that can come from sharing it. The election went much longer than expected and I ended up falling asleep, waking up to a complete reversal. I had no excuse to not use a stoploss to at least stop the trade out at breakeven, and for the first time all year I ended up tilting and blowing up the rest of my account on my own.</p>\n<p><strong>Turning Point</strong></p>\n<p>A year and a half ago I was posting monthly updates to my poker blog. In my experience having a detailed journal to reflect upon is a serious aid to personal development and growth as you have a clear look at what you have done, where you are now, and where you are headed in relation to your goals. Without it I find it very easy to just drift through life with no direction and then wonder where all your time/money went. As someone who prefers to end things on a high note I ultimately discontinued the blog because I had been taking so much time off there wasn't much poker content to go off of and I wasn't going to sacrifice quality. I told myself that if my trip to Poland in April had went well I would restart it, but we all know how that turned out.</p>\n<p><br>\nI have decided to start a blog again seeing as the first one served its purpose, though this time it is devoted to my trading endeavors instead of poker. You will hear many comparisons being made between poker and trading, which is extremely irritating because trading is exponentially more difficult than poker and the unqualified people spouting this garbage are not skilled in either one. Contrary to what it appears to be on the surface, although there is clearly lots of socialization in casinos, grinding poker is really a life of solitude, even more so in trading. The majority of people in the poker world are subhuman, so it is hard to find anyone worth befriending, but it isn't that difficult to find someone to discuss strategy with and learn from. On top of having to deal with the steep learning curve in trading there is almost no one to turn to and learn from, so having a blog to reflect upon and review my trading history to improve future performance is something that I deem as not an aid, but a requirement to be successful in my trading.</p>\n<p><br>\nI don't want to make it sound like I'm blaming others for what happened, but ultimately their comments strongly influenced my decision to keep holding on election night. Because I have lost so much money trading in the past I know that my statement doesn't hold much weight, but I know that at the time of writing this I now have a considerable edge, more so than in poker. Everyone is well aware of the potential that trading provides given the concept of compound interest, but they get sidetracked by that. I know exactly why I lost and what needs to be done to finally get into the lifetime black.&nbsp;</p>\n<p><br></p>\n</html>",
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      "title": "October: The Abyss (2015)",
      "body": "<html>\n<p><center><strong>The Abyss</strong></center></p>\n<p>DGAF over at the twoplustwo forums could not have summed up my thoughts for this month any better so I decided to quote one of his most timeless posts, seeing as I couldn't have expressed myself nearly as eloquently. &nbsp;There is so much garbage content to wade through on the internet in order to find these gems, so when they are finally discovered they are to be cherished. &nbsp;During my darkest times this helps me to stay confident and not become overwhelmed by feelings of self-doubt. &nbsp;When I am on an exhilarating heater it helps me not to lose sight of the bigger picture, sternly reminding of the struggles it took to get there, that ultimately it is a fleeting moment.</p>\n<p><center><img src=\"https://i.imgur.com/5A5iyhX.jpg\" width=\"500\" height=\"506\"/></center></p>\n<blockquote>I was in Vegas this year ****ing off during the WSOP. I was at a poker table one morning when someone I respect probably more than anyone else in the (poker/gambling) world sits down. I respect him because he has been around/in action/surviving forever→ sounds easy I’m sure to anyone who has been crushing over their first few years of live play (there are plenty of people on extended heaters all around the world), but it’s not, at all, for a myriad of reasons (just look at how few 10 year+ vets there are)… I also respect this guy because he is completely loaded with humility and sincerity- he will talk straight/share stories and information with anyone who is not a POS, and if you watch closely you will see him help/take care of all sorts of very down on their luck/haggard looking characters (I can only imagine how many of these dudes were crushers/ballers at one point) who pass by him in the poker room, randomly or not…<br>\nANYWAYS, this dude has pretty much “seen it all.” At least as much as anyone else I ever play with (I’ve played with older players—this guy is mid-fifties-- who have prob played more hours of poker total, but I’m talking about playing in the biggest games, for a living, etc). And in addition to poker, this guy is a very sharp sports bettor/gambler. So he understands edge available, variance, etc, extremely well (especially for an lol live pro&nbsp;)…<br>\nANYWAYS, ANYWAYS, this guy takes a 1-outer beat for stacks to some foreign kid pretty quickly after he sits down. Now he has never been one to complain at the table obv (anyone who has been around at all knows to not do this), and the permanent dark bags under his eyes tell you this is far from the first time he’s gotten super unlucky/faced adversity in his life (to further illustrate how old school this dude is, when I started playing with him he straight up told me I reminded him of Stu Ungar, because I was a fish 9 handed&nbsp;, but the last person he liked playing against short-handed&nbsp;)… But he actually has a legit befuddled/just seen a ghost look on his face after his ~ 3k stack is pulled in by the dealer and pushed to the foreign kid. Which is my que to say quietly from across the table, “Gross.”<br>\nSurprisingly (shockingly, actually) he breaks code and opens up to me in front of everyone. “(DGAF),” he says in gentle disgust (he knows I’ve got some miles on me too now lol), “that’s the third 1-outer this week!” And after I make the actual “eek” face, he concludes while shaking his head, “These past 2 months are the worst I’ve EVER run… Seriously… Just incredible…”<br>\n---<br>\nSo what?! Why am I making this super long as it is thread, even longer? Just to talk about some old schooler who ran bad this summer???<br>\nNo. I’m writing this post for me (and for some of you). This old schooler wasn’t just “running bad.” He knows how to handle “running bad.” He was running sooooo bad that he was actually in the variance abyss, where NO ONE can see straight/act right/play their A game.&nbsp;<br>\nAfter 30-40 years of beats, swings, anomalies, etc, one hand/one stroke of bad luck certainly wasn’t going to phase the Vegas old schooler. And it didn’t. It was the anomalous streak of bad luck strokes (I only witnessed the most recent one) that got him. But still, that this super seasoned vet, who understands math/probabilities/variance/etc very well (and he’s tough as nails btw), was completely owned/destroyed by his recent unlucky streak- I found that to be pretty ****ing amazing/telling. And his face/reaction/befuddlement that morning has been in the back of my mind ever since…&nbsp;<br>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>I’ve been to the variance abyss a couple times in my own career (2 insanely horrific against all odds stretches over ~ 7 years of high volume live play/gambling where I myself- pretty ****ing logical, well versed, battle tested, etc- was seeing ghosts and in turn, acting/playing a fool.).<br>\nI’m actually just coming out of my second stint in the abyss now (I ran good and won heaps over my last 2 sessions, which doesn’t mean I’m safely out for sure or I can’t go right back in lol, but I def feel different than I have the past few months, and I look forward to returning to form as a poker player/person soon- I hope). And it temporarily changes you, no matter who you are/how long you’ve been around/how much you’ve thought about all this stuff…<br>\nThe abyss makes you self-destructive. It makes you depressed. It drains your energy. It makes you make bad calls, bad folds, bad bluffs, bad value bets, etc. It makes you readable at the table. It makes everyone else less readable. The fish suddenly play OK against you. The scared grinders suddenly play well against you. And the world class players suddenly own your troubled soul. YOU are the blood in the water- even if you’ve always been the alpha shark.&nbsp;<br>\nThe variance abyss also makes you do dumb ****/things you never would. For respectable gamblers like the Vegas old schooler, it makes you actually talk about your bad luck at the table, even though you know it’s bad for the game and no one cares/wants to hear about it. For other less respectable gamblers, it often does much worse. There are countless examples obv (just go search NVG or HSNL) of the abyss quickly turning OK people/harmless poker enthusiasts into scammers, deadbeats, crazy people→ no one running good/OK ever owes a bunch of people money or is out scamming/committing crimes or sleeping on the streets or whatever.<br>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>So what does the abyss look like? It’s more than just some longshot beats obv. It’s ALWAYS finding the top of a range when the money goes in. It’s finding the very bottom of a range when the money doesn’t go in. It’s constantly turning 2 pair or trips when you are against a set. It’s ALWAYS BEING AGAINST A SET. It’s flopping a set yourself (finally) but knowing you aren’t going to win (and you don’t). It’s the game breaking at your lowpoint every session. It’s the 100 vpip fish taking a phone call as you get your first good hand. It’s being in position with dominating hands against a whale all night and never winning. It’s having a rep/image such that no one folds anything to you and yet you don’t turn over a winning hand for like 3 sessions straight. It’s doing all the things you've always done to cultivate a good game (investing lots of time, money and energy) and then having some other good player randomly show up and start binking all over the place until all the free money is gone. It’s getting all your playable hands in the sb. It’s having someone spill their drink on your lap. It’s getting gum on your pants from under the table- on both legs. It’s knocking your sirachi sauce off your food tray and having it hit the floor in such a magical way that it shoots up into the air and all over the well dressed high stakes limit pro behind you. It’s someone forgetting to straddle when you get aces. It’s firing a second barrel as your opponent picks up a flush draw, firing a third when they get there, checking back worse when they don’t. It’s having a nit bluff you…&nbsp;<br>\nIn the abyss you don’t lose 5 flips in a row. You lose 5 flips in a row, then 5 more , then 5 more, then 5 more, and so on… You get sick of flipping but the whale demands you do it/he pays you juice. He’s a little bit shady and you don’t know if he already looked at his cards so you agree, but only if you can switch cards. He agrees and you give him your Aces… You don’t fire the 5 sharp nfl plays you get (because you are being responsible) and you watch them go 5-0 easy. The next week you say, “**** it, gamble!” and you fire the 5 new sharp plays given to you. You go 0-5 (partially because Eli Manning is a worthless human being), and you suddenly realize that you’ve had 0 winning sports betting weeks in the last 6 months. Now needing to earn in poker, you lose a bunch, 4 sessions in a row- in insanely soft short-handed big games, that YOU built. You win 200 bucks the next session (hey, you’ll take it), but get completely whacked right when you sit down the following session. And so on…&nbsp;<br>\n---&nbsp;<br>\nSo who has been to the abyss? All but the newest players have seen glimpses of it imo. I got overset twice in an hour and 4 times in a session playing big a few years ago. That’s a glimpse. I played a 3000 bb pot with A9 vs AA on 9954 and did not win a few years before that. That’s a glimpse. I got it all in on the flop the other day (single raised multiway pot, I called on the button pre) with 8h6h vs 9c8d on 9s7h5s and I got felted. If I hadn’t already been in the abyss, that would have merely been a glimpse as well.<br>\nThe abyss is basically relentless bad luck/no relief. You have to think, “OK, and it can’t get any worse than this” at least 20 times in a row spread out over time before it’s even possible you are in it. You have to FEEL like you CAN’T WIN (even if lots of data/results/logic suggests the opposite). You have to literally want to cry or break something for several hours straight (depending on how you deal with ****) for there to even be a chance you are in it. You have to a least ponder for a second when getting dressed which shirt might be luckiest/break the slump (even if you aren’t a superstitious idiot). You have to at least consider seat changing or asking for a new setup for real (even though you hate that **** and know it’s super retarded and would never actually do it). You have to at least get mad at/airball the dealers a little for your bad hands. It has to look like there are 15 people at the table when the game is full. You have to start thinking a little, “This guy is playing kinda good” when you know deep down said guy is super terrible. You have to honestly think (and maybe even tell a friend),&nbsp;<strong>“No one has EVER run this bad before…“</strong>&nbsp;Otherwise, no shot you have been there imo.<br>\nAs mentioned, I’ve been to the abyss twice in my (pretty long) career (fingers crossed, 7 hail marys, etc, my last 2 sessions just brought me out). The Vegas old schooler has probably been there more than that (though he plays a WAY lower variance brand of poker/gambling, so maybe not). Guys like Doyle Brunson, Barry Greenstein, Mike Matusow, Ted Forrest, etc, I’m sure they’ve all been there plenty (you can see it on their faces). But have guys like Antonio Esfandiari? Idk, he’s prob played a lot of poker, but as a commentator he’s said some things that honestly make me think he hasn’t/he doesn’t even remotely grasp variance as it applies to live poker.&nbsp;<br>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>What % of the people playing in the biggest game in your casino have been there? Like really been there? I’d say&nbsp;<em>maybe</em>&nbsp;20%. What % of the hotshots/LAGs (people still playing LAG that is) have been there? Pretty much zero.&nbsp;<br>\nThe reason for these low figures? For sane, healthy people, one extended trip to the abyss is enough imo. They aren’t going back. Whether that means playing way tighter/more conservative, much smaller (where the abyss doesn’t really hurt), or quitting poker/gambling all together, that’s what the human survival instinct has most sane people do imo. The pain and the financial loss is just too much…&nbsp;<br>\nAs mentioned, some warriors do just stick it out and get perma bags under their eyes and occasionally act like rookies at the table. And some stay around but it’s not long until they resort to illegal/dirty activity until they are completely broke, locked up, banned, or worse.<br>\nAnd then others try to document/sort through their super fishy thoughts (which only show up while in the abyss every few years) with super long, rambling essays posted anonymously on the internet, all in an effort to be more objective, stronger, and more sane (and maybe help a few others do the same) in general, and ESPECIALLY the next time they find themselves in the The Abyss.</blockquote>\n<p><center><strong>Highlight Hands</strong></center></p>\n<blockquote><em>1025/800 UTG blk don straddle EP shorty open 20 one call I 3b AA 75 in BB. 4way 753cc I bet 200 only blk don call 190 eff. Turn Qx Riv Qx he has QsTh.</em></blockquote>\n<p><em>Absolutely absurd hand I just felt the need to post because it is just so ridiculous. How someone can call off a large bet with no pair, no draw, and dead overs with others left to act is something I just cannot comprehend.&nbsp;</em></p>\n<blockquote><em>1050/1050 EP straddle one call I raise red JJ 40 in CO BTN nig don flat EP omc shove 64 I call don call. 3way 962hh I bet 150 he snap shoves I snap. Don TT. Riv Tx.</em></blockquote>\n<p><em>This is the same V from the hand above. This is a guy who continually buys in for $200 until he can get up to a grand or so, at which point he always hits and runs. In the short amount of time that he stays he is an extremely soft spot, playing a $1000 stack the same way he does a $200 stack.&nbsp;</em></p>\n<blockquote><em>1000/1000 BTN straddle I overcall 22 in MP. 7way J92r SB omc bet 30 MP fish call I raise 135 only HJ &nbsp;internet tough guy call. Turn 3x I bet 315. Riv Jx I shove internet tough guy slowrolls J9o.&nbsp;</em></blockquote>\n<blockquote><em>1000/1000 EP blk recfish open 15 one call I 3b KQss 55 in MP. 3way Q43r I bet 115 only nig call. Turn 3x I bet 225 he CR 475 I tank fold he shows A7hh. No hearts on board.</em></blockquote>\n<p><em>This hand made for a very good discussion and although there is certainly merit to betting the turn vs such a weak opponent who can certainly call down 3 streets with worse, I now agree with the 2 street line. Checking back turn means I never get bluffed out of the pot, never get stacked, get an additional bet from 66-JJ that would likely fold to a turn bet, and get a bet from straight draws, worse queens, and floats. The tragedy of not being able to get my hand to showdown is significantly more important than going for a very thin 3 streets of value. &nbsp;</em></p>\n<p><center><strong>Positive Reflections</strong></center></p>\n<p>Because nothing was going my way in October I decided to take an extended hiatus of 10 straight days off. &nbsp;In response to expressing my burnout issues friends have suggested I take time off, but seeing as I haven't gone more than 2 days without playing poker this entire year that isn't something I've truly heeded. &nbsp;The results have been overwhelmingly positive. &nbsp;Stepping away from the game this long has made me realize what a great financial opportunity I really have in poker and it puts into perspective how foolish it is to waste time doing nothing productive at home. &nbsp;I am no longer complacent about my situation, my passion for the game somewhat rekindled.</p>\n<p><br>\nI could go on and on about what a miserable grind this month has been, but that would be allowing poker to have complete control over my life. &nbsp;The quality of your happiness and the very state of your psyche are too important to be left up to chance, the simpler term for variance. &nbsp;Equating self worth with net worth is an equation for unhappiness, one that has dictated my life for far too long. &nbsp;It is the reason so many poker players are miserable.</p>\n<p><br>\nRecently a good friend of mine gave me a truly meaningful pep talk that really put things into perspective. &nbsp;Western culture promotes the ideal that in order to be happy you must have the latest and greatest materialistic possessions, instilling feelings of inadequacy if you do not keep up with such a lifestyle. &nbsp;The truth is that this is all a never ending trap designed to to keep you enslaved to the financial system. &nbsp;The little value that these things bring to our lives is greatly outweighed by the stress and anxiety that come along with it. &nbsp;The loan balance on my relatively new Toyota is much greater than the actual value of the car, which in itself is a horrible situation. &nbsp;Walking out of the casino to my car after a losing session and having to look at the dents, key marks, and missing hubcap on my car amplifies that frustration tremendously. &nbsp;I can only imagine how much worse it would be if I owned a new BMW.</p>\n<p><br>\nI am far from robusto and there is no end to the grind in sight, but I am reaching the point where money doesn't matter so much anymore as long as I cut out the unnecessary luxuries. &nbsp;All of my basic needs are taken care of and reasonable wants are well within reach. &nbsp;I am sensible enough to admit that becoming rich while still having my youth is an unrealistic goal, financial security being a much more practical one. &nbsp;Because I have grown so much more sensible about money it is extremely unlikely that I will ever go broke again. &nbsp;Winning a few thousand in one night doesn't fill me with excitement like it used to, but at the same time losing a few thousand in one night doesn't bring me down like it did in the past. &nbsp;I believe this is what it means to have the right attitude towards money as a poker player.</p>\n<p><center><img src=\"https://i.imgur.com/pgQlsXn.jpg\" width=\"720\" height=\"540\"/></center></p>\n<p><center><strong>Elon Musk</strong></center></p>\n<iframe width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https://www.youtube.com/embed/mh45igK4Esw\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay; encrypted-media\" allowfullscreen></iframe>\n<br>\n<p>A friend of mine highly recommended that I look into the life story of this billionaire. &nbsp;I expected it to be just like all the other documentaries where some rich billionaire spurts out some cliche quotes about hard work and passion. &nbsp;However, it turned out to be much more inspirational than I could've imagined. &nbsp;This is the only billionaire I can think of that is dedicating all of his energy and personal wealth to make the world a better place and advance human civilization into the era of space travel, rather than just trying to accumulate more wealth. &nbsp;Unlike the arrogant and obnoxious Mark Cuban, Elon is a very pleasant, humble, down-to-earth person.<br>\nThe majority of his wealth in his early career came from the sale of Zip2 and Paypal, of which his personal share from the deal was 22M and 165M respectively. &nbsp;When Tesla was struggling to get off the ground with only a few months of operating costs in the bank, there was no angel investor or miraculous bailout to save his company. &nbsp;He alone took the stand by devoting nearly all of his personal capital to save Tesla from going under, to the point of risking personal bankruptcy, because it was unquestionably too important to let die. &nbsp;With a smile on his face he says that this stressful period was the closest he has ever come to a nervous breakdown, but that he has never actually had one.</p>\n<p><br>\nI was able to deeply empathize with this particular segment. &nbsp;Here I am losing my mind and going off on extremely negative tangents when I am down more than $1,000 (&lt;3% of my current net worth) in a session, while Elon maintained his composure despite being at risk of losing the entirety of his 200M net worth. &nbsp;He doesn't see failure as everyone else does, he just sees it as an obstacle that he needs to remove in order to accomplish the goal he defined in the beginning. &nbsp;Other people see failure as a need to change and do other things, but that's because they didn't create a well defined goal in the first place. &nbsp;I believe Elon's calm, positive attitude in this regard sets the perfect example of how downswings need to be handled.</p>\n<p><center><strong>Results:+3738/147hrs</strong></center></p>\n<p><center><img src=\"https://i.imgur.com/0Q31Lq4.jpg\" width=\"225\" height=\"400\"/></center></p>\n<p>Although it has been getting slightly cooler, the snowbirds definitely haven't made it to Tampa yet. &nbsp;Aside from running poorly the games have generally still been pretty poor as well. &nbsp;Throughout many sessions this month players on all tables would be requesting transfers, but there was no good table to actually transfer to. &nbsp;Half the time 5/10 game here is made private and the shady shitreg who runs it absolutely hates me, so there is no shot at getting in and my earning potential is currently being severely handicapped. &nbsp;My LA trip is right around the corner to kickstart the new month, the Seminole Hard Rock series starts shortly after, then the month ends with me going to the WSOPc in Cherokee. &nbsp;I am glad October is over with and am very excited for what November has in store.</p>\n<p><center><img src=\"https://i.imgur.com/ml0Bgb2.jpg\" width=\"400\" height=\"300\"/></center></p>\n<p><center><em>Deepstack 5/10 before it became a private game</em></center></p>\n</html>",
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